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Happy Wild Card Weekend, RotoBallers! Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy NFL DFS prop picks for the games on Sunday, January 14, 2024. Welcome to our brand new NFL DFS series covering Underdog Fantasy contests! We will continue to focus on the NFL DFS props offered on Underdog called Higher/Lower (Over/Under).
Higher/Lower is traditional over/under DFS prop picks -- whether you think a player will score Over or Under the set lines, and choose your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (e.g., three picks = 6x your bet). Underdog Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games. At Underdog Fantasy, you're not playing against other people -- you're just playing against the projections.
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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Sunday, January 14
Be sure also to check out our brand new Props Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
George Pickens, 35.5 Receiving Yards (LOWER)
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills are in for one hell of a game due to the weather. It is snowing hard and freezing cold. The passing and receiving game may be one to take the unders on and George Pickens is first. Using the Proptimizer, taking him under 35.5 receiving yards has an implied total of -128 (56.14%). Kenny Pickett does have a chance at starting but whether he does or Mason Rudolph is under center, it's going to be hard to trust the passing game.
Pickens had a horrible end to the season where he had a 0% target share in Week 18 but saw 92% of the snaps. Before that game, he had a 24% target share in Week 16 and a 45% target share in Week 17. He has shown flashes of upside, but with more inconsistency from the young receiver and the weather during this game, the under seems to be more favorable.
Josh Allen, 0.5 Interception (HIGHER)
Carrying momentum off of the weather from the George Pickens breakdown, Josh Allen is a turnover machine. Having the ability to even throw this prop on a slip seems like a free square at times. Allen has thrown 18 interceptions this season. He had at least one interception from Week 5 to Week 14. He even finished the season with four interceptions in the final three games. Facing the Pittsburgh Steelers defense may not be that easy with the conditions of this game.
The Steelers rank sixth in points allowed per game but also rank fourth in pressure rate and sixth in completion rate. They may not rack up a lot of sacks but when Josh Allen does attempt to drop back in the pocket, the Steelers will most likely be ready for it.
Jake Ferguson, 43.5 Receiving Yards (HIGHER)
Jake Ferguson has quickly turned into one of the better tight ends in the league. Ferguson finished off the season recording four straight games with eight targets between Week 13 to Week 16 and finishing with six targets in the final two weeks. He has eclipsed 43.5 receiving yards in four of the last five games as well. He has held a 16% target share on the season with an 18% targets per route run share. Now, he faces a Green Bay Packers defense that struggles against opposing tight ends. The Proptimizer has him at favorable odds to hit the over, sitting at -106 (51.39%) for Sunday.
Kyren Williams, 17.5 Receiving Yards (LOWER)
Kyren Williams has been a wrecking ball for the Los Angeles Rams but mainly through rushing. With a solid receiving duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, this Rams offense leans more on Williams for his rushing upside. He hasn't broken 17.5 receiving yards since Week 13 versus the Cleveland Browns where he recorded 24 receiving yards. Since then, he has logged a game with one receiving yard and 14 receiving yards mixed in with some goose eggs.
Williams is also only projected for 2.5 receptions and 14.5 receiving yards. The Rams offense is a very dangerous one with multiple weapons surrounding Matthew Stafford, and there isn't enough ball to share for each player to go off in the receiving game Sunday.
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