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Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy NFL DFS prop picks for the game on Thursday, December 7, 2023. Welcome to our brand new NFL DFS series covering Underdog Fantasy contests! We will continue to focus on the NFL DFS props offered on Underdog called Higher/Lower (Over/Under).
Higher/Lower is traditional over/under DFS prop picks -- whether you think a player will score Over or Under the set lines, and choose your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (e.g., three picks = 6x your bet). Underdog Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games. At Underdog Fantasy, you're not playing against other people -- you're just playing against the projections.
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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Thursday
Be sure also to check out our brand new Props Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
Diontae Johnson, 41.5 Receiving Yards (HIGHER)
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson has covered this line in five of the eight games he's played in this season, averaging four catches per game on over seven targets. He has also covered this line in six of his last eight games against top-10 rushing defenses, averaging 58.8 yards per game in those contests. Last year against the Patriots, with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, Johnson caught six of 10 targets for 57 yards.
In 2022, Trubisky and Johnson appeared together in seven games. In those games, the Toledo alum covered the line successfully five out of seven times, including three games with 80 or more yards. He averaged 8.9 targets per game with Trubisky, including four games with 10 or more targets. The Patriots are 20th in yards allowed to wide receivers this season, with each of the last 10 top receivers covering this line against them.
Pat Freiermuth, 27.5 Receiving Yards (HIGHER)
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth has grappled with injuries throughout the season, covering the line in only three of seven games. Nevertheless, he has surpassed this mark in six of his last eight games as a favorite, boasting an average of 52 yards per game. The 25-year-old appears to be a priority with the new offensive coordinator, evidenced by covering the line in each of the last two games, including an impressive 120 yards against the Bengals on 11 targets.
In the 2022 season with Trubisky, Freiermuth successfully covered this line in four out of six games, with one miss occurring in a game where he ran a season-low 17 routes. He averaged six targets per game in those matchups, receiving at least six targets in four of the six games. His lone miss, apart from the game with 17 routes, was against New England, where he caught just four of seven targets for a modest 22 yards. Anticipating the Steelers' strategy to utilize the tight end for quick passes to establish Trubisky's rhythm, it's noteworthy that six of the last 10 tight ends have covered this line against the Patriots.
Ezekiel Elliott, 15.5 Receiving Yards (HIGHER)
New England Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott has covered this line in just three of 12 games this season, spending the entire year as the backup to Rhamondre Stevenson. Due to an ankle injury suffered in the team's Week 13 loss, Stevenson will be sidelined for the Week 14 matchup against the Steelers, providing Elliott with an opportunity to take on the full workload. Despite not having seen a whole game as the starter, Elliott successfully covered this line last week with Bailey Zappe and in the absence of Stevenson, catching four of his five targets for 40 yards.
In four career starts, Zappe has targeted running backs 27% of the time, a rate well above the league average. Stevenson had been running 23 routes per game this year, and Elliott is expected to assume those routes in the upcoming game, especially considering he ran 17 routes in a shortened effort in Week 13. Whether through screen passes, checkdowns, or short routes from the running backs, Elliott is poised to receive significant usage in the passing game, particularly given the Patriots' depleted pass-catching options.
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