NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 9) - Targets and Avoids

About halfway through the season and who would have predicted the Bucs and Packers would be 3-5, the Rams 3-4, and the Falcons and Seahawks leading their divisions? It appears there's a changing of the guard not only atop the NFL but also with middle-level teams. It's not even halfway through the year and a lot can change but this is the reason survivor pools are decimated.

Week 8 finally allowed survivor pools to breathe easy with nearly all the favorites winning outright. Week 9 has three massive favorites and possible land mines among the other five-or-so point favorites. There are six teams on the bye.

You may be out of your survivor pool, may be in a second chance contest, could be looking for analysis, or just want my best bets. In this article, you'll find it all. 

NFL Teams Favored by 7+ in Week 9

Lines are consensus via The Action Network: Eagles -13.5 at Texans, Bills -12.5 at Jets, Chiefs -12.5 vs. Titans, Bengals -7.5 vs. Panthers

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Wednesday. Check the current spreads and see how the lines moved.

Teams on bye this week: Broncos, Browns. Cowboys, 49ers, Giants, Steelers

Best bets are at the bottom of the column.

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 9

Eagles -13.5 at Texans

Bills -12.5 at Jets

I'll group these two together. If you're still alive from Week 1 and have these teams available, fire either away. The only real question is whether these two teams will cover. But neither are in any danger of losing.

Chiefs -12.5 vs. Titans

Tennessee ran for 314 yards against the Texans. Quarterback Malik Willis was 6-10 for 55 yards and an interception. It was utter domination from the Titans' offensive line. Willis will not be able to sit back and watch Derrick Henry win the game, rather he will need to make some plays in Arrowhead on Sunday night. It'll be his second career start so the Titans will try and run Henry as much as they can to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, but it won't work.

Chiefs 34 - Titans 17

Bengals -7.5 vs. Panthers

This line dropped about a point after Cincinnati was embarrassed Monday night in Cleveland. But that was a bad matchup for them going into the game considering the Browns had the better offensive and defensive lines. I always like taking teams after getting blown out on national television and it comes against a Panthers team with an average pass defense and off a heartbreaking loss to Atlanta.

Bengals 33 - Panthers 17

Chargers -3 at Falcons

Los Angeles is a road favorite off the bye and I bring back my favorite gambling nugget which is hitting at about 65-70 percent in the last 15 or so years. RJ Bell explained why the trend is so successful.

"The team that's traveling is clearly better. Because you can't be favored on the road unless you're clearly better. But because you're clearly better, you have the distractions on the road. You might be looking ahead. You might be a little beat up from last week. Whatever it is, it's going to cause you not to play your best game; you're more susceptible to a team you think you should easily beat, even more susceptible on the road. That's why road favorites are so dangerous. Well, when you have a bye, all that stuff goes out the window. If you haven't played for two weeks, you're not going to look ahead. You're going to be focused on that team. You're not going to be tired. All the things that make traveling tough, you have that total focus."

Falcons are off an emotional roller coaster of a win against the Panthers. Chargers big.

Chargers 38 - Falcons 21

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 9

Dolphins -5 at Bears

Justin Fields has really come around in recent weeks. He's not looking to run every time he drops back to pass and teams are starting to slowly respect him as a passer.

Miami has a terrific offense with the two best receiving duo in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But which team will show up, the one that scored 16 points against the Steelers or the team this past Sunday that scored 14 unanswered to beat the Lions?

Bears 23 - Dolphins 21

Patriots -5.5 vs. Colts

Mac Jones dinked-and-dunked it around Sunday against the Jets, but it was the defense and running game that got them the win. It's really hard to take a favorite and lay more than a field goal with a team that is not a threat to score every time they touch the ball.

The Colts are allowing the eight-fewest opponent yards per game, 5.2, and are third-best in opponent rushing yards per carry with four. If Jones has to make plays, it's not a side I'd want to be on.

Colts 16 - Patriots 14

NFL Best Bets for Week 9

• Chargers -3 at Falcons - Road favorite off a bye.
• Bengals -7.5 vs. Panthers - Joe Burrow will rebound nicely.
• Colts +5.5 at Patriots - Hard to trust the Patriots offense to win this handily.

Running Totals

• Last Week: 3-0
• 2022 season: 15-8-1
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

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