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Welcome to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season! There are so many different pools, fantasy leagues, weekly bets, and futures bets that it's hard to decide what to do with these choices. But survivor pools are the oldest and simplest leagues out there. All you have to do is pick a team and have it win, but you can't choose it again.
All season long, I'll bring you weekly survivor pool advice for NFL teams to target and teams to avoid each week. Survivor league strategy is a major part of winning your pools, and this article will help you through the 2024 NFL season. We're ready to preview Week 9 and get you through the early season weeks.
We're in the thick of the bye-week season, so the Survivor picks get tougher and tougher by the week. We're back to some bye weeks this week with the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers each on their bye. With that, let's look at some teams to target and avoid for survivor pools in Week 9.
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Implied Point Totals, Point Spreads, and Over/Under Totals for Week 9
Before jumping into the picks for Week 9, it's helpful to get an overview of the slate with implied point totals, point spreads, and over/under totals from betting markets. All implied totals come courtesy of FantasyLabs each week.
Now, let's look at the survivor pool pick recommendations to target and avoid for Week 9.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 9
Philadelphia Eagles vs. JAX
The Philadelphia Eagles are starting to look like the Eagles again, which is a scary sight for any teams that are coming up on their schedule. Luckily, for our benefit, the Jacksonville Jaguars are up next and get to travel to the "Linc" to oppose the scorching-hot Eagles.
This game features the third-highest point spread of any game in Week 9 and the Jaguars have the fifth-lowest implied point total (19) of any team in Week 9. The huge elephant in the room is the Jaguars defense, which is dead last in defensive EPA per play. To say they've been abysmal might still be selling it short.
SMITTY...HOW?! OMG!@DeVontaSmith_6 | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/1gCGVqcIav
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) October 27, 2024
The Eagles, as 7.5-point favorites in this game, do have some future value as they do play the Carolina Panthers in Week 14, but this spot in Week 9 against the Jaguars is as good of a spot as any to use them.
The Jags may not have Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis at wide receiver and they definitely won't have Christian Kirk, who is out for the season with a broken collarbone. Taking the Eagles, who have been excellent in both the run and the pass, over the Jags makes all the sense in the world and is the likely chalk play for those in Survivor pools this week.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. LV
While the Bengals are coming off a 37-17 loss to the aforementioned Eagles last week, they now get to come home, and as the great Bill Belichick once said, "We're on to Cincinnati."
The Bengals will host the Las Vegas Raiders, where they are 7.0-point favorites and sport one of the highest implied point totals (27) on the Week 9 slate. The Raiders aren't the Panthers when it comes to using any team playing them in Survivor pools, but they are pretty close.
Ja'Marr Chase 70-YARD TD.
FIVE TOUCHDOWN PASSES FOR Joe Burrow.
📺: #BALvsCIN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/XJKCC0bWOb— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
The Raiders have scored 20 points or fewer in their last five games, and they've lost their last four games against the Broncos, Steelers, Rams, and Chiefs.
It's a must-win game for the Bengals to get back into the AFC playoff picture and what better game to get right than Las Vegas? They lead the NFL in turnovers, sport a below-average defensive EPA per play, and allow the fourth-most points in the NFL.
The Bengals represent a team that has little future value, as their easiest game remaining might be a road game with the Titans, who have been plucky on defense. If you're looking to get away from the stone chalk, the Bengals are a pretty good bet.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 9
Atlanta Falcons vs. DAL
The Falcons are 2.0-point favorites at home against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 9's highest over/under of 52.5 points. Oddsmakers think this game could be a shootout and it has the potential to be with the offensive firepower on both sides.
Sure, the Cowboys haven't been great lately thanks to a pre-bye 47-9 drubbing at the hands of the Detroit Lions. They were much more competitive on the road in San Francisco as they kept that game within a score. The Falcons aren't exactly world-beaters, either, as they lost at home to a volatile Seahawks team by 20.
Both the Falcons and Cowboys are in the bottom 10 teams in the NFL in defensive EPA per play and are back-to-back (25th and 26th) in pressure rate. Pressure shouldn't be an issue for the Falcons in particular because even when they get it, they have a league-low SIX sacks. Total. Through eight games.
Nothing is stopping either offense from doing what it wants, except itself. That's been the story of the Cowboys this season. But do I want to trust either team in what could be a track meet? Well, Dallas needs this game to save its season. Not that the Falcons don't, but they're prone to laying eggs at home with losses to the Steelers, Chiefs, and Seahawks this season.
I'd rather just leave this game alone.
Buffalo Bills vs. MIA
The Bills are at home against the Miami Dolphins in Week 9 as 6.5-point favorites, but these aren't the same Miami Dolphins from earlier in the season. Now that Tua Tagovailoa is back under center for Miami, the pieces are in place to get back to being an efficiency monster.
Buffalo has been playing some pretty good football as the clear leader in the AFC East with a 6-2 record. So why the trepidation?
If Miami gets hot with Tyreek Hill, De'Von Achane, and others, I'm not sure the Bills can answer back with such a quick strike offense as we know the Dolphins have. The Bills have been a ground-and-pound offense with Josh Allen carrying the team on his back and running back James Cook taking some of the leftovers.
Knowing what the Dolphins are capable of has me a little spooked in taking the Bills with such confidence. Yes, they took care of the Dolphins 31-10 in Week 2 in Miami, but I don't think Miami forgot it wants to salvage its season starting this week. Not to mention, there are plenty of better games to use the Bills this season, including the Colts next week, the Jets at home, and two games with the Patriots.
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