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What a week it could have been for survivor pools. The New York Giants nearly pulled off one of the most improbable upsets this season. As a 15.5 point underdog to Buffalo, with a backup quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, the Giants did all they could except capitalize in the red zone. They failed to get any points at the end of the first half despite having it 1st-and-goal from the one with 12 seconds and then could not score from the one to end the game. It makes you wonder, how could coaches make millions of dollars per year but can't manage the clock? These games are decided by mere inches and in-game decisions.
A Giants win would have caused such damage in survivor contests. My pool would have lost 30 percent of the remaining entrants and there would have been about 500 left. About 3,300 entered in Week 1. I did give the Bills and Dolphins out as my top two targets last week, but luckily I went with the Dolphins because I wanted to save Buffalo. The Chiefs were also a recommendation and that was never in doubt. Two of my three avoids, the 49ers and Eagles, lost outright. While my top avoid, the Rams, was down 9-3 at the half before playing one good half of football like they've done all season.
This week is really hard. There are only three favorites with spreads of more than six. Nine of the other games have spreads within three points. Two of the best teams, the Dolphins and Eagles play each other so that's a game to avoid. Let's see what we can find.
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NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 7
- Bills (-8.5) at Patriots
- Seahawks (-8) vs. Cardinals
- 49ers (-7) at Vikings
Teams on bye: Bengals, Cowboys, Panthers, Jets, Texans, Titans
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 7
Bills (-8.5) at Patriots
Is Buffalo becoming the team when they're doubted, they play well and vice versa? Three weeks ago they destroyed the Dolphins when Miami was the hottest team but then they lose in London as a 5.5-point favorite to the Jaguars and then barely beat the Giants. So what can you expect out of them Sunday in New England, a game they should easily win? If Buffalo gets ahead in this game early, they'll run away with it. The offense was not good Sunday night, but all they need to do is score 20 points.
The Patriots search for solutions ahead of the AFC East matchup with the Bills.
Unfiltered Mailbag: https://t.co/7TzPxpmKAl pic.twitter.com/aiDTvBxDjf
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 17, 2023
Buffalo's defense played very well Sunday night. It was against a backup quarterback, but still, to not allow a touchdown in an NFL game is a big deal. The Patriots are 29th in yards per play, 25th on third down, but somehow 70 percent in the red zone, third best in the league, but that's because they average 1.7 red zone trips per game, 31st in the league.
In a tough week, this is the best of the options.
Seahawks (-8) vs. Cardinals
Seattle had every single chance to beat the Bengals on Sunday. Cincy scored touchdowns on their first two drives but then went; punt, punt, halftime, interception, punt, punt, field goal (which came off an INT), punt, punt. Seattle was in possession for 34 minutes of the game but was 1/5 in the red zone. This is a perfect rebound game for the Seahawks.
Arizona can not put together a full game. They just can't string together two good halves. They were up 9-6 against the Rams at half Sunday before completely collapsing in the second getting outscored 20-0. Joshua Dobbs' yards per attempt has really been trending downward at 5.2 and 5.7 the last two weeks. His completion percentage also hovering around 50 percent those last two games. Seattle is stingy on defense, ranking ninth in opponent yards per play.
Seahawks 26 - Cardinals 13
Packers (-1) at Broncos
It's very very important to monitor line movement here. That's because we have the only trend I actually follow/believe in; road favorite off a bye. It hits at about 65-70 percent over the last 15 or so years and an even higher clip when the road team has a losing record. RJ Bell explained why the trend is so successful.
"The team that's traveling is clearly better. Because you can't be favored on the road unless you're clearly better. But because you're clearly better, you have the distractions on the road. You might be looking ahead. You might be a little beat up from last week. Whatever it is, it's going to cause you not to play your best game; you're more susceptible to a team you think you should easily beat, even more susceptible on the road. That's why road favorites are so dangerous. Well, when you have a bye, all that stuff goes out the window. If you haven't played for two weeks, you're not going to look ahead. You're going to be focused on that team. You're not going to be tired. All the things that make traveling tough, you have that total focus."
Green Bay has a top-10 defense in yards per play and on third down. Russell Wilson looks so old and can't bring his offense to do anything. They looked lackluster in their last game on Thursday night against the Chiefs.
Denver Broncos season is absolutely comedy pic.twitter.com/ts7aT9yEU2
— Ahmed/The Ears/IG: BigBizTheGod 🇸🇴 (@big_business_) October 8, 2023
If Green Bay gets 20 points in this one, they win. The Packers' offense should be getting back running back Aaron Jones which would be a huge boost.
Packers 21 - Broncos 17
My survivor play is going to be between the Packers and Bills. I would like to save Buffalo and I would also like to not be on one of the two big favorites this week with the Seahawks being the other. If one of those teams go down and I go with the Packers and they advance, then I'm looking really pretty.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 7
49ers (-7) at Vikings
We finally saw what happened when Brock Purdy fell behind. He couldn't get the offense to do anything. Yes, he was without Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel but how could he only throw to George Kittle for one reception for one yard all game? The Browns did get some calls and the Niners did miss a makeable field goal that would have won them the game, but the Browns played exceptionally. They held Purdy to 125 yards passing and the rushing attack to 108 yards on 25 carries.
Bad news, Niners Nation 😬 Brock Purdy looked pretty human on Sunday pic.twitter.com/OQDogcXaxz
— GoJo and Golic (@GoJoandGolic) October 16, 2023
San Francisco will need CMC and Samuel back for this one. Minnesota has a bad record, 2-4, but they've played good football. Nothing is going their way this year while last season everything went their way. If the 49ers can't score like they usually do because of their injuries, then the Vikings can surely stay in this until the end.
49ers 23 - Vikings 21
Chiefs (-5.5) vs. Chargers
The Chargers nearly always play the Chiefs really tough in Arrowhead. Justin Herbert is 2-1 in Kansas City in his career, the first win though came against Chiefs' backups. Either way, they won in 2021 and lost by three last year. They have the offensive weapons and defensive pass rush to beat any team. And most importantly, they don't fear Patrick Mahomes. The last four meetings between these teams have been within one possession.
Chargers 30 - Chiefs 26
NFL Best Bets for Week 7
- Chargers (+5.5) at Chiefs
- Packers (-1) at Broncos
- Vikings (+7) vs. 49ers
2023 Season Running Totals
- Last week: 3-0
- 2023 season: 11-7
- 2022 season: 28-23-3
- 2021 season: 27-26-1
- 2020 season: 24-27
- 2019 season: 23-26-2
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