NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 7) - Targets and Avoids

We are now a third of the way through the football season and it seems that we already have some of the division winners. In the AFC, the Bills, Ravens, and Titans all seem to be in control. In the NFC, the Cowboys, Packers, and Bucs have at least a two-game lead. The only two divisions still fully up for grabs are the AFC and NFC West.

In survivor pools, it was another week of favorites. Most entrants had the Colts against Texans and Rams topping the Giants. Both cruised to blowout wins. About 10 percent had the Chiefs, who overcame a small deficit at the half to beat Washington. The Bills lost as a six-point favorite but barely anyone had them. Through seven weeks, there hasn't been that popular favorite that lost. We're right about at that point in the season where a shocking upset happens. It feels very overdue. And with this week having some massive favorites, could this be survivor doomsday?

All season long, I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. Strategy is a major part of winning this pool and this article will help you through the season. 

Survivor League Strategy

Not many entrants have been eliminated and the majority of people remain in most pools. I'm going to keep trying to save the best teams for later. When considering a certain team, check the schedule to see what are spots would be good to take them. And sometimes, it's nice to just take the best team and move on.

Teams favored by 7+ in Week 7

Lines are consensus from The Action Network (home team in caps); CARDINALS -17 vs. Texans, RAMS -15.5 vs. Lions, BUCS -13.5 vs. Bears, PACKERS -9.5 vs. Washington, and PATRIOTS -7 vs. Jets.

Teams on bye this week; Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Rams, Steelers, and Vikings.

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 7

CARDINALS -17 vs. Texans

RAMS -15.5 vs. Lions

BUCS -13.5 vs. Bears

PACKERS -9.5 vs. Washington

There's not really a case to be made on why these teams will win, but the question is who to use here? I've played around with the scenarios on when to take which team over the next few weeks. I have two entrants remaining in my survivor pool and for full disclosure, here are my picks so far.

The only other place to take Arizona is in Week 15 at Detroit. That week is going to be a difficult one.

The Rams play the Texans in Houston next week and later host the Jaguars in Week 13 which seems to be the only play then.

The Bucs play the Giants at home in Week 11, but there are other solid options that week. Another option for Tampa is Week 17 at the Jets.

This may be the last best chance to use Green Bay if you haven't used them. The next best chance to pick them is in Week 18 at home against the Lions. But the last week always has star players sitting out, so other options will present themselves.

Next week, we'll be all-in on Kansas City hosting the Giants on Monday Night Football. I've had the Chiefs circled in that spot all season. It's also the last time you can be super confident in taking them.

So based on all the permutations, I'm going to take the Cardinals in my first entrant and Packers in the second one. Next week, Kansas City in both. And this way, I still have the Rams, Bucs, and Cardinals to use later in the season for one of my entrants.

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

PATRIOTS -7 vs. Jets

Taking a touchdown favorite that has a bad offense always scares me. They rank 23rd in yards per play, 12th in third-down offense, and 30th in red-zone scoring percentage (touchdowns). Additionally, the Pats have had one 40+ yard passing play all year. This is not a big-play offense and the Jets, who are off a bye, are ninth in opponent yards per play. You need to be able to put teams away and the Pats can't do that.

These teams played in Week 2 with New England winning 25-6. I expect a much closer result here.

Patriots 21 - Jets 20

Best Bets

• Falcons -2.5 at DOLPHINS -
• Saints -5 at SEAHAWKS - Both the Falcons and Saints are road favorites off a bye. From VSIN, "Favorites off a bye are roughly 58 percent ATS over the past decade, with road favorites roughly 66 percent ATS." 66 percent! It's even higher among teams with losing records, which would fit the Falcons. You may ask why. RJ Bell explained why the trend is so successful.

"The team that's traveling is clearly better. Because you can't be favored on the road unless you're clearly better. But because you're clearly better, you have the distractions on the road. You might be looking ahead. You might be a little beat up from last week. Whatever it is, it's going to cause you not to play your best game; you're more susceptible to a team you think you should easily beat, even more susceptible on the road. That's why road favorites are so dangerous. Well, when you have a bye, all that stuff goes out the window. If you haven't played for two weeks, you're not going to look ahead. You're going to be focused on that team. You're not going to be tired. All the things that make traveling tough, you have that total focus."

• Chiefs -4.5 at TITANS - Tennessee had no business beating Buffalo Monday night. Their defense is so bad, Patrick Mahomes is going to have a field day.

Running Totals

• Last week: 2-1
• 2021 season total: 9-8-1
• 2020 season total: 24-27
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

More Weekly Lineup Prep

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