NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 4) - Targets and Avoids

Survivor doomsday came early this year. Week 3 knocked out just over half of the remaining entrants that had survived the first two weeks. Sunday saw the Jaguars, Cowboys, and Ravens all go down, all of which were very popular picks in Week 3. And then you have people who forget to enter a pick while some took the Vikings and other teams that not many others had. Either way, we finally had a week that saw pools really see a sharp decrease. My contest began with 3,335 and now there are 1,050 left.

My top two plays of Week 3 were Seattle and Kansas City. I did discuss the Cowboys and Jaguars, but ultimately, did not utilize them because there will be more optimal times to use them in the season. My reasoning; the point of survivor pools is to win, not just survive. In order to win, you obviously need to advance but you want to avoid the teams that will be highly picked because if they go down - like they did last week - then the masses get eliminated and you have a better chance to win.

Now things begin to get tough. There are two big favorites in Week 4 while the other games have lines that are tight.

NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 4

• 49ers -14 vs. Cardinals
• Chiefs -9.5 at Jets
• Eagles -8.5 vs. Commanders
• Cowboys -7 vs. Patriots
• Chargers -6 vs. Raiders

These lines are from Tuesday.

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 4

Vikings -3.5 at Panthers

This play may catch you by surprise. Both teams are 0-3 and the Vikings have seemingly fully regressed from last season. Last year, Minnesota won all the close games finishing 13-4. This year, they're 0-2 in the close games. They dropped a tight one in Week 1 against the Bucs and were a play away from beating the Chargers. Critics always want to get on Kirk Cousins but he's leading an offense that's averaging 6.2 yards per play, second in the NFL. Their defense is not that good but the Panthers are 27th in yards per play and don't have an offensive line.

Focused on getting the first one 😤 pic.twitter.com/IAaoW2okS3

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) September 24, 2023

Andy Dalton looked good Sunday going 34/58 for for 361 yards and two touchdowns. They did not turn it over once but still lost by 10. Carolina's defense forced two punts and one interception. The score could have been much worse, Seattle had to settle for five field goals. Cousins could have a huge day against this defense.

This is the team to play if you want to avoid the big favorites and save the top teams for later in the year. The other options below are fine, but if you have to take two teams beginning in Week 10, like I do in my pool, you want to get rid of the teams you won't bet picking later on.

Vikings 34 - Panthers 20

Chiefs -9.5 at Jets

If the Chiefs score 21, they'll win. It's that simple. Zach Wilson is not an NFL quarterback, but head coach Robert Saleh and Joe Douglas appear to be sticking with him. They signed Trevor Siemian, who is an upgrade, but what's that telling you about Wilson that Jets fans think Siemian is an upgrade?

Lowest Passer Rating since 2010
(min. 20 starts)

Zach Wilson 69.2
Blaine Gabbert 72.1
Mark Sanchez 75.1
Christian Ponder 75.9
Brandon Weeden 76.0 pic.twitter.com/loOLYsYZPZ

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 26, 2023

The Jets had the following drives against New England Sunday; punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, field goal, punt, punt, punt, touchdown, safety, downs, end of game. It was horrible football to watch. The Jets have such a good defense to keep them in games, but eventually, the pressure of having to get stop after stop gets to an elite defense. Knowing you can only give up 14 points because your offense can't do anything really weighs on a defense. The Jets need to do something fast or this could be a long season.

It may take time Sunday night, but Patrick Mahomes will eventually have his way with the Jets defense and be able to move the ball.

Chiefs 27 - Jets 14

49ers -14 vs. Cardinals

The only question is do you want to save the Niners for later in the year? I would. But if you choose to take them here, that is fine.

49ers 30 - Cardinals 17

Chargers -6 vs. Raiders

This game hinges on the availability of Jimmy Garoppolo. If he doesn't go because of a concussion, then it will likely be Brian Hoyer. He won't be able to keep up with Justin Herbert and the Chargers' offense. The only way the Chargers lose is if they have one of those games where they somehow, someway lose when they have no business doing so.

Chargers 33 - Raiders 21

Eagles -8.5 vs. Commanders

The Eagles are a team you'll want to save. They still have games against the Rams, Jets, Giants and Cardinals. Philly is rounding into form after they started off sluggishly, but are still 3-0. They'll roll here.

Eagles 30 - Commanders 17

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 4

Cowboys -7 vs. Patriots 

Dallas could have gone in the suggested plays but I think you will want to save them for later in the season. But I also could see this game being a defensive struggle, which tends to favor the underdog. Both teams are top-10 in opponent yards per play and top-five in opponent third downs. The Patriots will try and run the ball early and if they can, Mac Jones won't need to drop back to pass and have to deal with Micah Parsons.

Dak Prescott throws a ball where 3 Cardinals defenders were, there’s no way that ball gets to Cooks at all #DallasCowboys

(🎥: @NFLonFOX) pic.twitter.com/QsnaH9augO

— Kevin Gray Jr. (@KevinGraySports) September 24, 2023

Cowboys 20 - Patriots 17

Broncos -3.5 at Bears

You may be considering taking Denver because when will you have a chance to take them again? But after giving up 70 points, they are not to be touched. The Bears are also a disaster.

Broncos 20 - Bears 19

NFL Best Bets for Week 4

• Packers +1.5 vs. Lions - Somehow Green Bay is an underdog in this Thursday night game. The Packers' defense has been very good, Jordan Love has not made any mistakes. I love the idea of going against Jared Goff on the road in Lambeau.
• Steelers -3 at Texans - Pittsburgh has such a good defense and their offense may not be so bad. They played the 49ers and Browns in the first two weeks, both of which are top defenses. Their offense Sunday night was able to move the ball so perhaps it's not so bad after all. Many people are high on Houston after they dominated the Jaguars, but it was only one game. CJ Stroud will look like a rookie here.
• Patriots +7 at Cowboys

2023 Season Running Totals

• Last week: 3-0
• 2023 season: 6-3
• 2022 season: 28-23-3
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

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