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Comeback Sunday. The Jets, Dolphins, and Cardinals pulling off improbable wins. Other games going down to the wire. Through two weeks, 12 games have been decided by three or fewer, a record. As for survivor, both Ohio teams, the Browns and Bengals, knocked out about 20 percent of the entrants. About 75 percent of entrants have already been eliminated. And this week doesn't get any easier.
Week 3 may be one of the toughest weeks I can remember. Even more difficult than Week 1. It's unclear if there are any teams to feel overly confident with.
All season long I'll be bringing you weekly survivor pool columns on NFL teams to target and avoid each week. Survivor league strategy is a major part of winning your pools, and this article will help you through the 2022 NFL season.
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NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 3
Lines are consensus via The Action Network: Chargers -7 vs. Jaguars, Chiefs -6.5 at Colts, Eagles -6.5 at Washington, Vikings -6 vs. Lions.
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the lines moved.
With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 3
Bengals -4.5 at Jets
This will be my survivor play this week. Cincinnati is 0-2 and desperate for a win. Despite a "revamped" offensive line, Joe Burrow has been sacked 13 times so far, the most in a season. But that came against T.J. Watt and the Steelers and Micah Parsons and the Cowboys. The Jets don't have those pass rushers to harass Burrow.
Had Nick Chubb gone out of bounds Sunday, this line would be Bengals by seven.
Bengals 30 - Jets 17
Chargers -7 vs. Jaguars
The big hold-up with this pick is the health of Justin Herbert. Even if he plays, this will be a close game, one they should pull out.
Chargers 27 - Jaguars 24
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 3
Chiefs -6.5 at Colts
Football is a weird sport. By everything we've watched, all the stats, Kansas City should dominate Indy. The Colts have looked miserable. Matt Ryan looks terribly old and a full step slow. But as the public continues to hammer the Chiefs, the line hasn't budged, even dropped from seven to 6.5. How? That makes no sense. Exactly right. This looks too easy. This will be the Colts' home opener and they will give it everything they have to avoid an 0-3 start. Even if the Chiefs squeak one out, the Colts' first-quarter money line is a play.
Colts 23 - Chiefs 21
Eagles -6.5 at Washington
Similar to what I wrote about the Chiefs-Colts, this will be another unexpected game. Philly looks incredible and can't be stopped while Washington is the same team we've seen in recent years. They can compete, but have a propensity to get steamrolled. Washington has caused the Eagles trouble in recent years and that may very well continue.
If Philly keeps up how they're playing, you'll want to save them for later.
Washington 33 - Eagles 31
Vikings -6 vs. Lions
After watching Kirk Cousins Monday night, how can you put your faith in the Vikings to advance in survivor? Detroit plays with tenacity every single play. They play a full 60 minutes and never stop. The last four meetings have all been decided by four or fewer points. This line is too high.
Vikings 28 - Lions 27
Ravens -3 at Patriots
New England has one of the best defenses in football, allowing 4.7 yards per play, tied for eighth in the league. They've shut down Miami and Pittsburgh, holding them a touchdown each. The Patriots' offense though has looked dreadful, but if there were any game for Mac Jones to breakout, it's this home opener. The Ravens' secondary was letting Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle run free for 361 receiving yards. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns. If the Patriots can't move the ball Sunday, this could be a dreadful season for Bill Belichick.
Ravens 26 - Patriots 24
NFL Best Bets for Week 3
- Bengals -4.5 at Jets
- Falcons +2 at Seahawks - Seattle's Week 1 win threw people off. Geno Smith is back to what we expected and the defense can't get off the field.
- 49ers -1 at Broncos - The Niners are back to their bread-and-butter, running the ball and controlling the clock. Denver has looked like deer in the headlights.
Running Totals
- Last Week: 3-0
- 2022 season: 6-0
- 2021 season: 27-26-1
- 2020 season: 24-27
- 2019 season: 23-26-2
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