NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 16) - Targets and Avoids

The NFL, where the unpredictable happens. This weekend, we saw the largest comeback in history, two separate 17-point comebacks, a walk-off defensive touchdown off an offensive lateral, a goal-line stand surrounded by referee controversy, a pick-six in overtime, and a snow game. It was an incredible weekend of football and if you don't think it can be topped, just think again. Every week in this league, we see crazier and crazier endings.

Week 16 begins Thursday night with the Jaguars at the Jets. The game with major playoff implications will be in the middle of terrible weather slamming the Northeast. The full slate of games is on Saturday, Christmas Eve. There will be three games on Sunday, Christmas Day, and then the usual Monday night game.

You may be out of your survivor pool, or maybe you're in a second chance contest. Or maybe you're just looking for analysis, or just want my best bets. In this article, you'll find it all. 

NFL Teams Favored by 7+ in Week 16

Lines are consensus via The Action Network: Chiefs -9.5 vs. Seahawks, Bills -9 at Bears, 49ers -7 vs. Commanders, and Ravens -7.5 vs. Falcons.

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the lines moved.

My best bets are at the bottom of the column.

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 16

49ers -7 vs. Commanders

San Francisco is one of the few teams that can be trusted. Winners of seven in a row, they have one of the best defenses, second in opponent yards per play, and boast one of the best pass rushers in Nick Bosa. On the offensive side, the line has given up the sixth-fewest sacks. They have some of the best playmakers, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, and it doesn't matter who the quarterback is. All Brock Purdy has to do is not make a mistake and hit the open man. He's done that beautifully through two games and still has three games against mediocre teams until the playoffs. San Francisco will be favored in every game from here on out unless they play the Eagles in Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game.

After Sunday night's brutal loss to the Giants, the Commanders are now in must-win territory.  Taylor Heinicke appears to look overmatched, but can somehow find a way to make a play. But not against this defense. The pass rush will come at him from every way. The Niners will take Terry McLaurin out of the game as the Giants did, forcing Heinicke to look elsewhere.

These two teams are in different classes and the Niners will pull away.

49ers 27 - Commanders 14

Bengals -3.5 at Patriots

How does New England recover after that loss to Las Vegas? That debacle means they'll probably miss the playoffs. It doesn't get easier with their schedule; home to the Bengals and Dolphins and a road game in Buffalo to end the regular season. They are looking at 0-3 to finish the year.

Sunday in Tampa was a slow start for the Bengals, but they exploded for 31 second-half points against the Bucs. They trailed 17-0 but ended up winning 34-23, which did not even feel close. Joe Burrow never seems fazed and he has such weapons in Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon, among others. If Cincy gets to 27, they should easily win.

Bengals 28 - Patriots 17

Cowboys -6 vs. Eagles

This line was Dallas -1.5 until the news that Jalen Hurts is uncertain for the game. If so, Gardner Minshew is a more-than-capable quarterback to keep this close. Minshew would even be a starter on most teams. Philly is strong in every unit and this should be a field goal game.

Eagles 23 - Cowboys 20

Chargers -4 at Colts

Indianapolis has to be done after blowing a 33-0 halftime lead in Minnesota. If Justin Herbert has time to throw, this game won't be close. Kirk Cousins threw for 460 yards against the Colts so Herbert can have a monster Monday night.

Chargers 34 - Colts 17

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 16

Titans -5.5 vs. Texans

A team should not be favored by a touchdown over anyone with a below-average quarterback. Even when that's against the 1-12-1 Texans. The Titans are bottom-10 in yards per play, bottom-five in passing yards per game, and 24th in third-down conversion percentage. And in the last three, they've averaged the third-fewest points per game with 15.3. There's only so much Derrick Henry can do, and yes he's dominated Houston, but until Ryan Tannehill can make some throws, they can't be backed. These were the Titans' drives Sunday after a touchdown in the second; punt, interception, punt, interception, punt, missed field goal, punt, punt, touchdown. Not good.

The Texans have been very competitive in their last two weeks, losing on the last possession to the Cowboys and Chiefs. This is a divisional game and will be close.

Texans 23 - Titans 21

Ravens -7.5 vs. Falcons

Just like above, how can you back a team with Tyler Huntley as the quarterback? They are not going to score 24 points. The Ravens will try and run it behind J.K. Dobbins and not let Huntley take too many deep shots.

Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder looked awful in his debut, going 13/26 for 97 yards and getting sacked four times. He should settle in better in this one and if Atlanta uses their strong ground attack, they can make this a game.

Ravens 17 - Falcons 16

Bills -9 at Bears

Buffalo has not been able to put a team away and win comfortably by about 21 points since a 38-3 win against the Steelers on Oct. 9. Sometimes the offense plays well, but not the defense or vice-versa. They have not fully come together as a team and been dominant on both ends of the ball on the same day. Until that happens, they can't be backed against the spread. Especially not against a team like Chicago that tends to keep it close.

Justin Fields is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks. He may not be able to sling it, but he can run around and drive defenses crazy. It's one thing to prepare for Fields but another to play against him.

Bills 34 - Bears 31

Chiefs -9.5 vs. Seahawks

Just like Buffalo, Kansas City does not put teams away. They know how to win, but like to keep it close until the end. Like Chicago, Seattle will not go away and Geno Smith will keep throwing.

Chiefs 31 - Seahawks 26

Bucs -6.5 at Cardinals

Arizona will likely be starting Trace McSorley at quarterback unless Colt McCoy is cleared from concussion protocol. Despite that, I would avoid the Bucs at all costs. The last several games have seen them look worse and worse. In the last three games, the offense has averaged 15.7 points per game, the fourth-fewest. Tom Brady has no time to throw, the receivers aren't getting open, and the offensive line is not blocking. The defense has given up 28.3 points per game in the last three weeks, the sixth-worst. Tampa shouldn't even be in playoff contention but they play in the awful NFC South.

Bucs 30 - Cardinals 24

NFL Best Bets for Week 16

• Chargers -4 at Colts - Too much offensive firepower from the Chargers. Matt Ryan won't be able to keep up.
• Seahawks +9.5 at Chiefs - Kansas City does not cover as a big favorite. A backdoor cover is very possible.
• Eagles +5 at Cowboys - Gardner Minshew is more than serviceable and the talent surrounding him is arguably the best.

Running Totals

• Last Week: 1-1-1
• 2022 season: 23-19-3
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

More Weekly Lineup Prep

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