NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 16) - Targets and Avoids

It took 15 weeks for there to be crazy unexpected upsets and we got not one, but two. If you thought the Jets beating the Rams as 17-point underdogs was shocking, what about the Bengals beating the Steelers? Ryan Finley completed just seven passes for 89 yards and somehow the Bengals managed to win wire-to-wire.

As for the rest of Week 15, underdogs went 10-5-1 against the spread. There were six outright upsets, none bigger than the Jets pulling off the biggest upset in 25 years as 11-1 on the moneyline.

Week 16 kicks off Friday with the Vikings traveling to the Saints. There are three Saturday games; Bucs at Lions, 49ers at Cardinals, and Dolphins at Raiders.

Survivor League Week 16

Teams favored by a touchdown or more in Week 16; Ravens -10.5 vs Giants, Chiefs -10.5 vs Falcons, Browns -9.5 @ Jets, Bucs -9.5 @ Lions, Bears -7.5 @ Jaguars, Saints -7 vs. Vikings, and Bills -7 @ Patriots

Lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

I also give out my three top plays against the spread. That can be found at the bottom of the column.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 16

Ravens -10.5 vs. Giants

I say it every time Baltimore plays bad teams; they crush them. They get ahead, and then their running game is too hard to stop. The Ravens are averaging the most yards per play their last three games and second in third down's. The Giants offense has been inept ranking in the last three 28th in yards per play, 30th in third down's, and 28th in red zone touchdown's. New York is also averaging a league-worst 10 points a game in their last three while Baltimore is averaging a league-high 40.

If you want to say, well the Giants need to win this game. My response to that always is, if they needed to win this game and you're going to bet them because of that, well why are they in this situation then? If they were a good team, they should have won games prior to this.

Ravens 31 - Giants 13

Chiefs -10.5 vs. Falcons

If Kansas City wins this, they clinch home-field advantage through the AFC. You wonder what Atlanta mentally has left after yet another second-half collapse Sunday. The Falcons Defense has been better of late in terms of yards per play, but they're still allowing teams to convert 50 percent on third down's in the last three games. That's where the Chiefs will beat you time and time again. Patrick Mahomes will dance around and someone will get open.

I worry down the road that Kansas City will struggle because they should have crushed their last four opponents but only won by one possession in each. But that's not something to think about this week.

Chiefs 38 - Falcons 27

Browns -9.5 @ Jets

I really thought Cleveland would come out flat after their heartbreaking loss against the Ravens last Monday night. But their offense did not miss a beat converting nine of 13 third down's. In their last three, the Browns are first in converting on third down. Their defense played well Sunday night making the stops when they needed to, particularly in the red zone. Now they return to the Meadowlands for their second consecutive game against a Jets team that just got their much-needed win to avoid the dreaded 0-16 season. The Jets will not bring that fire they brought to Los Angeles Sunday and Cleveland will pound the run and then dominate on play-action.

Browns 26 - Jets 16

Bucs -9.5 @ Lions

Detroit is putrid against the pass. They allow 264 yards through the air, 27th in the league. The Lions have allowed more than 30 points in their last four games and are 31st in opponent yards per play. Their offense though continues to play well, all because of Matthew Stafford. He is so banged up, but will probably get the start. He is such a trooper and doesn't get enough credit for how much he gives to this franchise.

Tom Brady and co. should have no problem against the porous Lions Defense.

Bucs 41 - Lions 24

Bills -7 @ Patriots

Buffalo has already clinched the AFC East, but now they can show the country on Monday Night Football they are the team of the future in the division, not the Patriots. Buffalo's offense has looked dominant in the last three weeks averaging the fifth-most yards per play while scoring an average of 36 points per game. New England's offense has not scored a touchdown in the last two weeks, instead scoring a total of 15 points on five field goals. This game has blowout written all over it.

Bills 35 - Patriots 10

Saints -7 vs. Vikings

Drew Brees played better each snap Sunday. He still shouldn't be quarterback, that should be Jameis Winston, because Brees is not the player who can lead this team to a Super Bowl. You can't throw screen passes to Alvin Kamara and win a championship. Anyway, they won't have a problem this week against a Vikings team who's season is seemingly over.

Saints 30 - Vikings 21

Texans vs. Bengals

This game does not have a line as of this writing on Tuesday, but the Bengals just got their win against division rival Pittsburgh. I think Deshaun Watson has one of his incredible games in a dominating win.

Texans 44 - Bengals 13

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid 

Bears -7.5 @ Jaguars

There is no way Chicago should be favored by seven against any team in this league. Mitchell Trubisky can not be trusted even after they've scored more than 30 points in each of their last three games. All of a sudden Chicago is one back of the seventh playoff spot after they seemed out a couple weeks ago. This games has all the makings of a weird one where Trubisky plays like his old self and the Bears Defense gives up critical plays on key downs.

Jets fans were distraught after beating the Rams on Sunday, but I have a gut feeling they find themselves back in the number one draft position after this week.

Jaguars 19 - Bears 14

Best Bets for Week 16

• Ravens -10.5 vs. Giants
• Jaguars +7.5 vs. Bears
• Rams +1.5 @ Seahawks - The Rams are off such an embarrassing loss against the Jets. Sean McVay seemingly always has his team ready to bounce back after a loss like that. They still control their division fate if they win this and then next Sunday against the Cardinals.

Running Totals

• Last week: 1-2
• 2020 season total: 22-23
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

More Weekly Lineup Prep

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