NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 15) - Targets and Avoids

Have analytics become too mainstream? Has "advanced thinking" made NFL coaches actually regress? Doug Pederson is the prime example. The Jaguars had just scored a touchdown to cut the lead to 31-27 with 1:33 left. It seemed like an obvious PAT would ensue. Instead, Trevor Lawrence stays on the field and gets sacked going for two. How in the world does this make any sense? Of course Pederson defended the move after the game.

"Analytics puts you down too in field goal win to get the onside kick, then field goal wins the game. Try to be aggressive there, the way the game was going felt like we needed to make something happen and that was such a good time. We had them on their heels at that time and it was a good decision through that. For me, it was an easy decision to go forward at that time, because if you get a chance to get the ball back, you know exactly what you got to do, so either way, it worked to your advantage."

If it weren't for the Philly Special, this guy would be getting creamed by the media. If you kick the extra point and go down three, you know you need a field goal for overtime or a touchdown to win. I had no money on this game, the line was 3.0 or 3.5. Either way, decisions like these make you wonder how you can wager on this league. That game did not have much bearing on survivor contests. Some though were eliminated with the Texans and Steelers. The big decisions came down to Monday night with the Dolphins, but mostly Packers. There are four weeks left in the regular season and a lot can change. In the AFC, there are six teams win a 7-6 record. Five teams are nearly all but eliminated. In the NFC, all but four teams are eliminated.

NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 15

• 49ers (-12.5) at Cardinals
• Dolphins (-8.5) vs. Jets
• Chiefs (-8) at Patriots
• Rams (-6.5) vs. Commanders
• Saints (-6) vs. Giants

Teams on bye: No more byes this season.

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 15

49ers (-12.5) at Cardinals

The Niners are a juggernaut. They can beat you so many different ways with all facets of their offense. San Francisco is the best team in football and they are the short shot to win the Super Bowl at a consensus +250. Arizona has been playing better with the return of Kyler Murray but he won't be enough.

49ers 31 - Cardinals 20

Rams (-6.5) vs. Commanders

The Rams will either win by 20 or it will be a three-point game. Matthew Stafford can light up this Washington defense, which ranks last in opponent yards per play. The offense is finally healthy with Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, and new tight end, Davis Allen.

If Sam Howell and the offense can't keep up, they could be in for a long afternoon.

Rams 34 - Commanders 17

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 15

Dolphins (-8.5) vs. Jets

This game could very well come down to the Dolphins' rushing attack. Tyreek Hill got injured and their starting line is banged up. Without Hill, they looked like a different offense. And then they did the improbable, blew a 13-point lead in the last four minutes.

The Dolphins have been so good all year, could they go on a little swoon at the end of the year? Next week Miami hosts Dallas, then travels to Baltimore before wrapping up the regular season against Buffalo. The Bills are very live to win the division.

Before the Jets played the Texans, all the quotes coming out from the team was to play free, just go out there with no pressure and see what happens. Zach Wilson surely took that to heart, going 27/36 for 301 yards and two touchdowns.

This line was at 13.5 before they blew the Titans game. If the Jets play loose again, they could cause Miami trouble.

Jets 24 - Dolphins 20

Saints (-6) vs. Giants

New Orleans is not good enough to be a touchdown favorite. They did everything to lose on Sunday but Bryce Young was 13/36 for 137 yards while getting sacked four times. This game was scoreless after one, and 14-6 after the third. With six minutes left, the Saints scored a touchdown, the Panthers then turned it over on downs, and the Saints went on a 24-yard drive to score another touchdown and win 28-6. That game was a lot closer than the score says. Derek Carr was 18/26 for 119 yards, two touchdowns, and a pick. His QBR was 32.8. And this is with Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara.

Tommy Devito has given New York a football resurgence. Some are saying this is like Linsanity, when Jeremy Lin took over the city for a month. And then it all went downhill. In this instance, the Giants have won three in a row.

Their defense has been playing well, too; top-10 in opponent yards per play in the last three and third in third-down percentage on the year. They can also rush the passer. This will be a close game.

Giants 23 - Saints 20

Chiefs (-8.5) at Patriots

This is the spot to find out if there are problems with Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes and the offense have looked off. Most of the stats don't say so, seventh in yards per play and fifth on third down, but they are careless. They've turned the ball over 22 times, tied for the sixth-most. Mahomes has thrown 11 picks and the team has fumbled it 13 times. This is a good offense, just not the one we're accustomed to seeing. They have lost two in a row and three of their last four. And now they get one of the best defenses in the league.

The Patriots' defense has allowed opponents to score an average of 11.3 points per game in the last three, the second-best in that span. If they can get to 20, they have a real chance in this one.

This line was originally 10 but dropped to 8.5, perhaps after all the whining from the Chiefs. Many people are upset with how Mahomes acted by blaming the Week 14 loss on the refs. But forget the offsides, that play came on second down. They had three more chances to get 15 yards. Maybe they just aren't the Chiefs like we're used to.

Chiefs 23 - Patriots 17 

NFL Best Bets for Week 15

• Rams (-6.5) vs. Commanders
• Bills (-2) vs. Cowboys - 4:25 start in Buffalo for the warm-weathered Cowboys. The Bills are getting hot at the right time.
• Steelers (+1.5) at Colts - Pittsburgh is coming off an embarrassing Thursday night loss to New England. They have extra time to prepare. Mitch Trubisky will be able to move the ball and run around against this porous Colts defense that's given up the fourth-most points per game with 25.4.

2023 Season Running Totals

• Last week: 2-1
• 2023 season: 22-18-2
• 2022 season: 28-23-3
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

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