NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 14) - Targets and Avoids

How do you lay points with an offense that is one of the worst in the league? I'm talking about the Pittsburgh Steelers. Somehow they're 7-5 despite being out-gained in nearly every game this season. Yet, they were six-point favorites against the Cardinals this past Sunday. I warned last week you can't back a team that struggles to score. And they had one of their typical games, scoring 10 points with their only touchdown coming in garbage time. Pittsburgh has a relatively easy last five games, starting this week against a top defense but one that can't score, the Patriots.

If you somehow made it to Week 13 in survivor, you were likely knocked out with the Steelers and Bengals going down. Favorites did quite well last week, going 8-5 against the spread. Three dogs won outright with two of them, the Packers and Bengals, coming in prime time.

Injuries have been piling up and Week 14 could see four of the seven current AFC playoff teams starting a backup quarterback.

NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 14

• Dolphins (-13.5) vs. Titans
• 49ers (-10.5) vs. Seahawks
• Ravens (-7) vs. Rams
• Packers (-6.5) at Giants
• Steelers (-6) vs. Patriots

Teams on bye: Cardinals, Commanders

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 14

Dolphins (-13.5) vs. Titans

Miami should roast the Tennessee Titans on Monday night. The Fins average 32 points per game, the second-best in the league. No one can guard Tyreek Hill.

It's not just Cheetah. This whole offense is playing as one unit.

There are just so many weapons here. Coach Mike Vrabel usually has his team ready to play in these big games but they can't score with Miami. The Titans are 25th in scoring with 17.8 points per game and 21st in yards per play. If the Dolphins get to 31, they'll cover.

Dolphins 33 - Titans 16

Ravens (-7) vs. Rams

This line seems fishy. The Rams have won three in a row, scoring 37 and 36 each of the last two weeks. They are getting hot at the right time. Matthew Stafford is playing good football.

So why is this line seven? The Ravens are one of the most underrated teams but the oddsmakers and sharps think much more highly of them. They're off a bye and looking for their third straight win. No one is talking about them as a threat to win the Super Bowl. The advanced analytics community does though, they're ranked second in DVOA behind the Niners. I also worry the Rams aren't a cold-weather team and they play an early game on the East Coast. It's early in the week, writing this on Tuesday, but weather reports indicate it's going to be another windy and rainy weekend in the Northeast.

Ravens 34 - Rams 21

49ers (-10.5) vs. Seahawks

This line is way too high. I thought it would be nine, but it actually opened at 13 before getting bet back to 10.5. The Niners are the class of the league but Seattle has an offense and can score. They went up and down the field against the Cowboys and nearly won. The Niners have a very good defense but the Eagles did move the ball on them on their first two drives before settling for field goals. Geno Smith has enough weapons to keep this close.

49ers 27 - Seahawks 20

Packers (-6) at Giants

Jordan Love has another chance to shine on a Monday night game. He's off the best game of his young career, going 25/36 for 267 yards and three touchdowns.

Even without their top running back, Aaron Jones, the Pack ran for 5.2 yards per carry against KC. Green Bay is now 6-6 and right back in the playoff hunt. After this road game, they host the Bucs, are on the road in Carolina, at the Vikings, and home to the Bears. That is a very winnable last five.

The Giants are off a bye and looking to extend their win streak to three. They're 4-8 right now and somehow ESPN will keep saying in the lead-up to this game that the G-Men are still alive for the playoffs. They aren't because they aren't winning this game.

Their defense has had two very good games but that was against the Commanders and Patriots. This is a major step up in class for the Giants. Tommy Devito has been serviceable and he's a social media sensation but the Packers have an underrated defense. Big Blue is averaging 4.3 yards per play in their last three, 28th in the league. Expect them to get off to a good start before the Packers pull away in the second.

Packres 26 - Giants 16

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 14

Steelers (-6) vs. Patriots

This game could give us an idea of what it was like to watch football in the 1930s. These are two of the worst offenses. The Steelers average 16 points per game, 28th, and the Patriots are dead last with 12.3. Not only are they horrible, but Mitch Trubisky will be going against Bailey Zappe or Mac Jones. New England is getting worse to watch each week.

The opposite can be said for both defenses. The Patriots held the Chargers to six points and allowed 10 points to the Giants and Colts. The defense can keep playing out of its mind but they can't win scoring zero points. First to 14 wins this one but will either team even get there?

Steelers 13 - Patriots 9

Texans (-5.5) at Jets

Houston has been rolling but they are dealing with a lot of injuries. They just lost both their starting center, Jarrett Patterson, and wide receiver Tank Dell for the season. C.J. Stroud has been fantastic but that's two major pieces to lose. The offensive line will really be tested this week against the Jets defense. While New York's offense has been awful, their defense has been keeping them in nearly every game. They held the Falcons to 194 total yards of offense, three yards per play, and 4/14 on third down.

It really depends on who coach Robert Saleh decides to start. If it's Trevor Siemian, I like their chances. He's serviceable and can get this team to 20 points, which would be enough to win. I would be remiss if I avoided the off-the-field issues with the Jets. They already cut Tim Boyle, there are reported leaks, and Aaron Rodgers is commenting.

It's a mess and I'm probably a sucker for betting the Jets again this week.

Jets 23 - Texans 17

Saints (-5.5) vs. Panthers

Did Carolina find something on Sunday, especially with their running game? They were getting good runs from Chuba Hubbard late in the game and it looked like they wore down the reliable Bucs run defense, who gives up an average of 99 yards per game, 10th-best in the league. The Saints have given up 165 yards per game on the ground in their last three, that's the worst in football. They're also allowing 28 points per game in that span, fourth-worst.

This line is oddly low.

Panthers 23 - Saints 21

NFL Best Bets for Week 14

• Broncos (+3) at Chargers - This is not really a true road game for Denver. They'll have a ton of fans there, probably more than half the stadium. The Chargers look like they are done and if their offense struggles for a third straight week, their defense is not good enough to stop an average offense.
• Bills (+2.5) at Chiefs - I'd rather have three points but I think Buffalo wins outright. They had a week to get healthy during their bye. They have gone into Kansas City before and won. The Chiefs have the biggest distraction with Travis Kelce. They are not the Chiefs of the past.
• Panthers (+5.5) vs. Saints

2023 Season Running Totals

• Last week: 0-2-1
• 2023 season: 20-17-2
• 2022 season: 28-23-3
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

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