NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 14) - Targets and Avoids

The genius of Bill Belichick. Everyone needs to stop with that. We know how great of a coach he is, but they did absolutely nothing to win that game offensively. Yeah, they broke a touchdown run in the first quarter, but other than that, it was their defense. The Bills could not convert anything in the red zone, which cost them the game. People are now talking about New England going to the Super Bowl. Let's see Mac Jones lead a game-winning fourth quarter drive on the road first before jumping to that prediction.

Survivor pools continue to dwindle with the Vikings losing this past week, which I somehow predicted.

For those who are not familiar, all season long I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. Strategy is a major part of winning this pool and this article will help you through the season so let's start with that. 

Teams favored by 7+ in Week 14

Lines are consensus from The Action Network; Packers -12.5 vs. Bears, Chargers -10.5 vs. Giants, Chiefs -10 vs. Raiders, Titans -9 vs. Jaguars, Seahawks -7.5 at Texans, and Broncos -7.5 vs. Lions.

Teams on bye this week; Colts, Dolphins, Eagles, Patriots

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 13

Packers -12.5 vs. Bears

Not much to say about this game except Aaron Rodgers gets to make his MVP case in front of a national audience on Sunday Night Football.

Packers 31 - Bears 17

Chiefs -10 vs. Raiders

Derek Carr has been awful in the cold weather and now faces a defense that has been dominant of late. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense keeps getting bashed for not looking like the offense of the last three years, but they just torched this Vegas defense for 41 points a month ago. It'll happen again.

Chiefs 37 - Raiders 16

Titans -9 vs. Jaguars

Tennessee is about 10-1 to win the AFC. Seems a little high especially when you take their schedule into consideration. After the Jags they play in Pittsburgh, host the Niners, Dolphins, before finishing the season in Houston. If they go 4-1, they'll be 12-5 which could be enough to get the top seed. Then Derrick Henry could be back and all they need to do is win two games at home. But it starts this week against the Jags.

Titans 28 - Jaguars 13

Seahawks -7.5 at Texans

Are we sure Seattle's season is over? Here's a team that's 4-8, and needs to win out to have a shot at the playoffs. After Houston this week, they play the Rams in LA which will be difficult, then host the Bears, Lions, before ending the year in Arizona. The Cardinals could have the top-seed clinched and could be resting their starters.

Seattle 41 - Texans 14

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

Chargers -10.5 vs. Giants

The Giants' defense is playing a lot better of late, ranking 11th in opponent yards per play in their last three. But the problem will be on the offense. Daniel Jones is out, Mike Glennon is in concussion protocol, so it looks like Jake Fromm, the second-year quarterback out of Georgia, will get the start. He has never taken an NFL snap. But the good news is, Saquon Barkley has a nice matchup against a Chargers defense allowing the second-most rush yards per game. Plus, this will be a de-facto home game for the Giants will all their fans coming out.

Chargers 20 - Giants 17

Broncos -7.5 vs. Lions 

Detroit got their win last week so it's natural to think this one could be a letdown. But Detroit's defense has played tough all year. Denver's offense is medicore at best. They're in the bottom ten in both 20+ yard passing plays and running plays. I can't lay a touchdown with an offense that's averaging 16.7 points per game, 23rd in the league.

Lions 23 - Vikings 20

Best Bets

• Browns -2.5 vs. Ravens - Baltimore is off a bruising physical game against their arch-rival Steelers. They have so many injuries and now play Cleveland who's off a bye. Plus, these teams played just two weeks ago in which the Ravens won. It's really hard to beat a team twice in three weeks.
• Giants +10.5 at Chargers
• Chiefs -10 vs. Raiders

Running Totals

• Last week: 3-0
• 2021 season total: 20-18-1
• 2020 season total: 24-27
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

More Weekly Lineup Prep

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