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Another wonky week with big underdogs either winning outright or going right down to the wire. The Jets, down 14-3, came back to shock the Bills and the Titans nearly pulled off the 14-point outright upset against the Chiefs in Arrowhead on Sunday night. It's been some roller coaster of a year and survivor pools keep losing entrants.
This week there are some of the usual favorites but if you're somehow still alive in survivor, it's getting real slim pickings.
You may be out of your survivor pool, or maybe you're in a second chance contest. Or maybe you're just looking for analysis, or just want my best bets. In this article, you'll find it all.
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NFL Teams Favored by 7+ in Week 10
Lines are consensus via The Action Network: Eagles (-11) vs. Commanders, Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Jaguars, 49ers (-7) vs. Chargers
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Wednesday. Check the current spreads and see how the lines moved.
Teams on bye this week: Bengals, Jets, Patriots, Ravens
My best bets are at the bottom of the column.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 10
49ers (-7) vs. Chargers
The Chargers are really banged up. Justin Herbert was clearly impacted Sunday without wide receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Herbert averaged 5.7 yards per attempt with a long throw of 25 yards. The defense kept them in it, thanks to Khalil Mack stripping the ball at the goal line, but their rush defense was not good. They gave up 201 yards on the ground and now rank 29th in the league in rush defense. That will not bode well against the Niners.
San Francisco hasn't been rushing well recently, but you can be sure they will come out running out of their bye week. Christian McCaffrey has an extra week to get ready for this one. The defense is ranked one against the run and eighth against the pass. Add in the major coaching mismatch between Kyle Shanahan and Brandon Staley and the Niners should win this handily.
49ers 31 - Chargers 17
Cowboys (-5) at Packers
The markets have finally turned on Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Rodgers can blame the receivers all he wants, but he's been missing receiving and threw three interceptions in the red zone. It seems so difficult for them to pick up chunk plays. They rank 27th in points per game and that will not work Sunday against a top defense. The Cowboys average the most sacks per game with four and Rodgers will be scrambling all game.
Dallas fits into my favorite gambling theory, road favorite off a bye. As long as Dak Prescott doesn't make mistakes, they should win by a touchdown.
Cowboys 27 - Packers 20
Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Jaguars
Kansas City had better get their running game going on Sunday because asking Patrick Mahomes to throw for 446 yards and scramble for 63 yards is not sustainable. Jacksonville has a top-10 rush defense but they rank 22nd in pass defense. That means it could be another monster game from Mahomes.
Which Jaguars team will show up though? The one in the first half against the Raiders or the one that outscored Vegas 17-0 in the second. Trevor Lawrence could do some things to cover this one, but Kansas City should prevail.
Chiefs 33 - Jaguars 27
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 10
Eagles (-11) vs. Commanders
Could this be the first Eagles' loss? No one is expecting it here. Not against a division rival who they already crushed and a team that just blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead. In the last three games though, the Commanders have the second-best rush defense and 11th pass defense. Taylor Heinicke has been giving Washington a chance and perhaps he could pull off a Monday night shocker.
Commanders 23 - Eagles 21
Bills (-5.5) vs. Vikings
Josh Allen's injury hangs over this one. It also comes amid Allen's recent struggles. He's completed just 52.5% percent of his passes and has thrown for 218 and 205 yards with two touchdowns and four interceptions. He has not looked like an MVP at all. This will be a big game for him against one of the top teams in the league.
The Vikings have so many weapons on offense with Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, and now T.J. Hockenson.
Bills 38 - Vikings 34
Giants (-6.5) vs. Texans
The Giants have been on the right side of nearly every break this season. But you'd think a 6-2 team off a bye at home against the 1-6-1 Texans would be more than a touchdown favorite. Instead, Vegas asking you to put the Giants in a teaser (the line would then be a pick 'em). It'll be important to see how this line moves throughout the week. Either way, something is very wrong.
Giants 20 - Texans 19
Raiders (-6) vs. Colts
Jeff Saturday, who's been an ESPN analyst, is now the interim head coach for Indianapolis. But the line didn't move at all. Neither team can be trusted.
NFL Best Bets for Week 10
Commanders (+10.5) at Eagles - Divisional rival on Monday night. Washington will bring everything they have. If the defense plays as they did against the Vikings, this could be really close.
Broncos (+3) at Titans - Denver has one of the best defenses. The public will look at Sunday night's close loss against Kansas City and think Tennessee should do away with the Broncos.
Cowboys (-5) at Packers - The line seems too high but Rodgers and the Pack seem done.
Running Totals
- Last Week: 1-1-1
- 2022 season: 16-9-2
- 2021 season: 27-26-1
- 2020 season: 24-27
- 2019 season: 23-26-2
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