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Welcome to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season! Football is back, and the options are endless -- there are so many different pools, fantasy leagues, weekly bets, and future bets that it's hard to decide what to do. But survivor pools are the oldest and simplest leagues out there. All you have to do is pick a team and have them win, but you can't choose them again.
All season long, I'll bring you weekly survivor pool advice for NFL teams to target and teams to avoid each week. Survivor league strategy is a major part of winning your pools, and this article will help you through the 2024 NFL season. We're ready to preview Week 1 and get you through one of the hardest weeks.
In Week 1, you have an idea of which team is good, but it's all thoughts; there's no evidence to back up what anyone is thinking. The stars don't play too much in the preseason, so it's hard to gauge who's good and who isn't. Let's get some boilerplate stuff out of the way before diving right in with our picks for the opening week of the NFL season.
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Implied Point Totals, Point Spreads, and Over/Under Totals for Week 1
"For detailed survivor league strategy, and tips to help you win your league, check out our "how to win your survivor league" guide".
Before jumping into the picks for Week 1, it's helpful to get an overview of the slate with implied point totals, point spreads, and over/under totals from betting markets. For this week only, these totals come from RotoCurve, but after Week 1, the implied totals will come from FantasyLabs each week.
Now, let's take a look at the survivor pool pick recommendations to target and avoid for Week 1.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 1
Cincinnati Bengals (-9) vs. NE
The Bengals are the biggest favorite heading into Week 1 as a nine-point favorite against what odds say is the worst football team in the NFL, the New England Patriots. The implied total by the Bengals (25.5) is the fourth-highest mark for any team and that total is placed with the confidence that Ja'Marr Chase will be back in uniform and on the field for their Week 1 opener.
Even if Chase doesn't suit up, I'm still confident that the Bengals can take this game at home vs. New England. The Patriots have not decided between Jacoby Brissett or rookie Drake Maye for their Week 1 starting quarterback, but no matter the choice, the Bengals still have a massive edge in their ability to put up points.
Jerod Mayo, to @TheGregHillShow, on Jacoby Brissett vs. Drake Maye: pic.twitter.com/voKRpT2Dj2
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) August 26, 2024
The Bengals will likely be a top-two most popular pick by the field looking to get through Week 1, where there are the most unanswered questions about teams heading into the season. The public (and oddsmakers) are targeting this game as the chalk of the slate, so if you're looking to start the season on the right foot, know you'll also have many others with you when selecting the Bengals.
New Orleans Saints (-5) vs. CAR
If you played in a Survivor pool last season, you'll know that the matchups to target for most of the season revolved around who was facing the Carolina Panthers. That may not change too much this season, as the Saints are five-point favorites against the Panthers in the Caesars Superdome.
Looking at this matchup, the Saints have the highest adjusted win probability (75.9%), with the third-highest pick percentage by the field at over 10%, per Yahoo. You also won't find a better matchup all season for the Saints, as they are either underdogs or weak favorites at home against the entirety of their schedule until Week 17 at home vs. the Las Vegas Raiders.
Sometimes, Survivor isn't about just picking the best teams, but picking the right situations to save the better teams until later on while everybody else exhausts those good teams. It's much harder to do that in Week 1, but the Panthers didn't get markedly better from last to this season. Taking the Saints is a good way to shy away from the chalky picks early on.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 1
Buffalo Bills (-6) vs. ARI
While the Bills are at home and favored by six points, the Cardinals could make some noise and start 1-0. The Bills did lose Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this past offseason and replaced them with Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman. That will take some adjusting, so the 27-point implied total by the Bills -- the second-highest implied point total in Week 1 -- seems a bit hollow.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals return the core of their offense but add first-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr. to the equation for quarterback Kyler Murray, and they could ruin a lot of Survivor pools early. The public has the Bills as the third-highest adjusted win probability and the second-highest pick percentage among the field with 14.5% of players taking the Bills in Week 1.
As the Cardinals have a bit of a pulse on offense and the Bills will need to figure out how to score more points with their current roster composition, it could be a tricky spot for the Bills at home in Week 1. Until I know more about the Bills and how their offense will flow, I won't be taking them in Week 1.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. LV
The Chargers are favored by a field goal and host the Raiders at SoFi Stadium in Week 1, but while public sentiment is almost split down the middle in terms of Survivor pool players taking the Chargers, it's possible the public could skew dangerously further towards the Chargers because of new head coach Jim Harbaugh.
Harbaugh returns to the NFL from the University of Michigan and immediately gutted the previous offensive core, as Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett are with different teams. The receiving corps is led by Joshua Palmer, D.J. Chark, and Ladd McConkey. There is quite a stark difference between receivers from last season to this season.
We know that Harbaugh preaches a more physical style of football and will run the ball, but do they have the team to pull that off? If anything, the Raiders, with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Brock Bowers, can put a dent into what the Chargers want to do. Even with Gardner Minshew as the quarterback, he's at least proven moderately competent in throwing the football.
The Chargers seem ripe for being upset with their style of football and won't be a points-scoring juggernaut in the early going.
There are much better matchups to use the Chargers on later on in the season, so let's find out how they plan on running their offense with this run game and Justin Herbert before staking our entire Survivor pool on what equates to a mystery box option with the Chargers in Week 1.
Survivor Pool Picks Running Season Totals
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