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Everyone was doubting the Bears last week. Not me. I wrote, "I see this being a really close game and a possible upset special pick." If you avoided them and the Ravens, congrats. I thought the Ravens would kill the Browns and when they were up 21-9 it seemed over. The Ravens defense is so bad, they let the Browns score 33 en route to a win. My other picks; the Falcons are having a magical season and the Broncos somehow someway won again. And they covered the spread.
For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week, if they win you move on to the next week. BUT you cannot use that team ever again. There is NO point spread involved.
Teams on bye: Bucs, Cowboys, Raiders, Rams
Survivor League Strategy
I will be following the same strategy I implore every year when entering a survivor contest.
- Try to save the top teams for the end of the season. You do not want to be alive in Week 10 choosing between the Jaguars and Browns. Picking teams that you would not use later on in the season should be looked at early on. For example, last season the Jets played the Raiders in Week 1. I chose the Jets due to the fact that I knew this would be my best opportunity to use up the Jets and save other top teams like the Patriots and Seahawks later on.
- When in doubt pick the home team. Rarely will I be picking a team on the road in survivor. It is hard to win on the road, and teams tend to play better with their home crowd behind them. The one time I picked a road team last season, the 49ers lost at the Raiders and I was eliminated.
- Try to avoid divisional rivalry games also. Anything can happen with a rivalry game. Last season Washington was a 9.5-point underdog to the Cowboys in Dallas on Monday night football. Washington ended up winning, knocking many people out of their survivor pool.
- Never pick an underdog, unless you have no choice.
Before making any picks, look at each point spread. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us, use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.
The biggest favorites in Week 6, per sportsbook (home team in CAPS) PACKERS -10 vs. Chargers, Patriots -9 vs. COLTS, SEAHAWKS -6.5 vs. Panthers
Top Survivor Picks for Week 6
TITANS -2.5 vs. Dolphins
I love betting against a team that just fired its head coach and defensive coordinator while also having major locker room dysfunction. The Dolphins are a mess all over. They rank last in defensive rush yards per game and have given up 25 points a game. Ryan Tannehill is off to a horrific start. He's thrown seven touchdowns to five picks (not including the interceptions to the practice squad team) while completing only 56 percent of his throws. The run game is averaging 69 yards a game, second worst in the league.
The Titans played on Sunday in, as I called it on twitter, "The annual kill myself game of the year." I don't see that happening this week. Tannehill will have a lot of trouble this week against the number one ranked pass defense. If the Dolphins don't get their defense together they will be in for a long day. The Titans run for 119 yards per game and the wheels of Marcus Mariota will give the Dolphins a headache. I can't see the Titans playing as bad as last week.
This is a very hard week. The spreads are all a touchdown or less except for two. Using the Packers, Patriots or Seahawks this week is the smart move. Preferably take the Seahawks as to save the Pack and Pats.
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid for Week 6
Since the pick this week is Seattle or the Titans if you already used Seattle, avoid every other game. It is too risky of a week. Taking Andy Dalton and the Bengals in Buffalo against a Rex Ryan defense is a bad move. Who knows how the Chiefs will play without Jamaal Charles? Possible Ewing Theory? You want no part in these awful games; Texans at Jags, Bears at Lions, and Ravens at 49ers. Picking divisional games, Giants at Eagles, when in doubt is never the move. The Cardinals playing in a 1 p.m. eastern time slot scares me. There is no more upset pick I like this week than the Browns over the Broncos.
Broncos -5 vs. BROWNS
I love a home dog. This game is a turning point in the Browns season. With their next three games against the Cardinals, Rams, and Bengals this is a must win game. Josh McCown will come in confident after his 457- yard performance at the Ravens. I counted him out last week and he proved all the doubters wrong.
For the second time this season, the Broncos offense did not score an offensive touchdown. It was their fourth win by a touchdown or less. I wrote about not believing in Manning and how the team lets their opponent hang around last week. The offense did everything I expected them to do against the Raiders, but their defense is just too good to let. The injury to DeMarcus Ware will hurt, but the defense will still be elite. I really expect Manning to get rattled and throw some picks. This line is in the Vegas zone, anything can happen.
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