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The first quarter of the season ended with Seattle narrowly escaping in a game that never should have been that close. If the Seahawks lost, many people would have been knocked out of their survivor pool. For my picks; the Browns lost to the Chargers because God hates Cleveland and the Cardinals were shockingly upset by Todd Gurley aka the Rams.
Teams on bye: Dolphins, Jets, Panthers, Vikings
For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week, if they win you move on to the next week. BUT you cannot use that team ever again. There is NO point spread involved.
Survivor League Strategy
I will be following the same strategy I implore every year when entering a survivor contest.
- Try to save the top teams for the end of the season. You do not want to be alive in Week 10 choosing between the Jaguars and Browns. Picking teams that you would not use later on in the season should be looked at early on. For example, last season the Jets played the Raiders in Week 1. I chose the Jets due to the fact that I knew this would be my best opportunity to use up the Jets and save other top teams like the Patriots and Seahawks later on.
- When in doubt pick the home team. Rarely will I be picking a team on the road in survivor. It is hard to win on the road, and teams tend to play better with their home crowd behind them. The one time I picked a road team last season, the 49ers lost at the Raiders and I was eliminated.
- Try to avoid divisional rivalry games also. Anything can happen with a rivalry game. Last season Washington was a 9.5-point underdog to the Cowboys in Dallas on Monday night football. Washington ended up winning, knocking many people out of their survivor pool.
- Never pick an underdog, unless you have no choice.
Before making any picks, look at each point spread. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us, use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.
The biggest favorites in Week 5 per sportsbook (home team in caps); Patriots -9.5 vs. COWBOYS, PACKERS -9.5 vs. Rams, CHIEFS -9 vs. Bears, FALCONS -7.5 vs. Washington
Top Survivor Picks for Week 5
I understand that the Packers and Patriots are very easy picks this week, but try and conserve those two teams for later in the season.
FALCONS -7.5 vs. Washington Professional Football Team
Before the season, I thought the Falcons would rollover as they usually do. But gifted with a schedule that looks easier and easier every week, Atlanta have taken full advantage. The Falcons offense looks unstoppable. They are averaging 34 points a game, second in the NFL. Julio Jones looks like the best receiver and Devonta Freeman has been the breakout running back star the Falcons have not had since the days of Michael Turner.
In comes Washington. I am not sure what to make of this team. They could be 4-0, but are 2-2. Their defense looks totally fresh and revamped from last season. Their 288 yards allowed per game is fourth best in the NFL. Kirk Cousins is competent, but the running game is the biggest factor for the offense. With the addition of offensive line guru Bill Callahan this offseason, Washington is averaging the most rushing yards per game with 139.5. But they rank bottom ten in points scoring. The key matchup I will be watching is the Washington defensive line's ability to create pressure on Matt Ryan. This past week against Washington, Sam Bradford was hurried on 17 drop backs. He only attempted 28 passes. The Falcons offensive line has given up two sacks and 18 quarterback hits through four weeks. If Washington can rattle Ryan then they have a shot. If not, a blowout could be in the works. Atlanta has won four straight in this series, and it will be five on Sunday.
RAVENS -6.5 vs. Browns
Baltimore finally got off the schneid with a Thursday night victory at rival Pittsburgh. With a 10 day rest and extra time to prepare, they get the Browns off a heartbreaking west coast loss in San Diego. I would rather avoid divisional games, but this one cannot be avoided. Baltimore has owned the Browns ever since they bolted Cleveland in 1996, leading the all time series 24-8, including winning 13 of the last 14. Cleveland has not won in Baltimore since November 2007.
The Ravens might be one of the best 1-3 teams. I understand the team is riddled with injuries. Joe Flacco is losing receivers left and right; Steve Smith has micro fractures in his back while Breshad Perriman and Michael Campanaro are on injured reserve. That leaves Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown, Darren Waller, and Chris Givens, who was traded from the Rams Saturday. If there were ever a game a Ravens need to rely on their run game it's this one. Justin Forsett had his first good game of the season last Thursday, rushing for 150 yards and 27 carries. Cleveland is allowing 141.5 rushing yards per game, second worst in the league.
Look for Baltimore to run early and open up the deep ball for Flacco. The Ravens defense has lost their sizzle since Terrell Suggs went down in Week 1, but should regain their form after 10 days of practice. They also get to face Josh McCown who will be in the loud M&T Bank Stadium for his first time. I think Cleveland is shot after the ending of Sunday's game and the Ravens are beginning to prey.
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid for Week 5
CHIEFS -9 vs. Bears
The Chiefs have no business being nine point favorites against anybody. What is wrong with Andy Reid? If you have been closely watching Chiefs games this season, you can tell that Reid has been mismanaging the clock as usual and his play call is conservative again. Alex Smith has attempted 143 passes but ONLY 19 deep passes per NFL Savant. It's comical watching the Chiefs run dink and dunk passes that get five yards on third and long. The Chiefs offense isn't fit for today's NFL. I am not sure how the Chiefs are mentally after losing three straight, which included a heartbreaking loss to the Broncos and blowout losses to the Packers and Bengals.
Are we sure the Bears are so bad? They lost their first three games to teams that are collectively 10-2 (GB, ARI, SEA). The Bears looked a lot better Sunday with Jay Cutler back under center leading them to a victory against the Raiders. The Chiefs have one of the better defenses in football, but I do not trust the offense to do anything against the Bears. Chicago's pass defense has allowed 190 passing yards per game, fourth best in the league. Smith will throw his short passes but how much can they realistically score? I see this being a really close game and a possible upset special pick.
Broncos -5.5 vs. RAIDERS
I love the Raiders in this one. The Broncos could be 0-4 if you look closer at each game. Each game has come down to the fourth quarter and all four games could have gone either way. But thanks to the Broncos excellent defense being the heart of this team, they are 4-0. In recent years, the Manning-led offense has been able to put teams away early en route to scoring a ton of points. But this year Peyton Manning looks so old. He can not move, but scores just enough for his defense to come through and make that last stop. The Broncos let teams hang around, which is exactly why I love the Raiders here. Letting an underdog hang around is never a good thing. It is worse on the road against a rival that has lost the last seven games in this series. The key component here is if Khalil Mack and Aldon Smith can get past the weak Broncos offensive line and rattle Manning. I bet they force enough pressure on Manning to keep this game close enough. I would even go so far as to say this will be the Broncos first loss of the season.
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