Running Back Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers, Studs and Busts

With the 2024 NFL regular season almost here, fantasy players are knee-deep in fantasy football drafts.

While there are several different draft strategies, the most important thing fantasy players need to do during their draft is to select studs, find sleepers, and avoid bust candidates.

Let’s look at two running back studs fantasy players should draft, two sleepers they want to target, and two bust candidates to avoid in 2024 fantasy football drafts.

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Fantasy Football Running Back Studs to Draft

Breece Hall, New York Jets

Fantasy players struggled to trust Hall heading into last season, with the coaching staff wanting to limit the superstar’s workload coming off a torn ACL. New York signed Dalvin Cook during the preseason, further throwing a wet blanket on the second-year player’s fantasy outlook.

However, Hall was outstanding after coming off the snap count, totaling 26.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in his first game as a full-time player against the Denver Broncos. Furthermore, the former Iowa State star was the RB2, averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game from Week 5 through the end of last year.

An electric 72 yard TD run for @BreeceH! ⚡️

📺: #NYJvsDEN on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/LxW25sxPWA pic.twitter.com/7YO1UYkf66

— NFL (@NFL) October 8, 2023

The second-year player was outstanding despite playing behind the sixth-worst run-blocking offensive line in the NFL (per PFF). New York significantly improved its offensive line this offseason, adding three new starters. After averaging 3.25 yards after contact per rushing attempt in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data), Hall will be even better this year and could finish as the overall RB1.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

Some fantasy players will have concerns about Henry for two reasons -- his age and career workload. The veteran turned 30 in January and is one of the oldest running backs in the NFL. Meanwhile, he has over 2,000 career rushing attempts, including 303 or more in three of the past five years.

However, Henry was the RB8 last year, averaging 13.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite splitting the backfield work with Tyjae Spears. More importantly, he averaged only 1.11 yards before contact per rushing attempt behind a horrendous Tennessee Titans offensive line last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Thankfully, Henry won’t have to play behind that awful offensive line again.

Meanwhile, the veteran finished second in rushing yards (1,167) and fifth among running backs in touchdowns (12). While some are worried about Lamar Jackson’s impact on his fantasy value, Henry won’t lose rushing touchdowns to him, as the superstar quarterback isn’t frequently used around the goal line.

Fantasy Football Running Back Sleepers to Target

Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans

Many had high hopes for Spears heading into the offseason. Unfortunately, his fantasy value took a significant hit when the Titans signed Tony Pollard in free agency. However, the coaching staff has raved about Spears all offseason, saying he and Pollard are interchangeable co-starters.

The former Tulane star is one of my favorite mid-round running back draft picks this year. Spears was the RB35 as a rookie, averaging 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite seeing only 8.9 touches per contest.

While Pollard won’t completely disappear into the background, don’t be surprised if the second-year player becomes the lead running back in Tennessee.

Spears had the fifth-best explosive run rate (7%) and the ninth-best yards after contact per rushing attempt average (2.92) among running backs with at least 100 attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Furthermore, he averaged 10.1 fantasy points per game in the six contests with at least seven rushing attempts as a rookie.

Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos

The Broncos backfield is a wide-open competition heading into the upcoming season. However, McLaughlin is the running back fantasy players should want on their team. He impressed as a rookie, averaging 11.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 6.9 yards per rushing attempt in the four contests with at least seven attempts.

More importantly, McLaughlin was the team’s best-performing running back last year. The former Youngstown State star had the 12th-best explosive run rate among running backs, with at least 75 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). He also led the Broncos in missed forced tackle rate per rushing attempt (29%) and yards after contact per attempt (3.49).

Don’t be surprised if HC Sean Payton views him as his next Alvin Kamara and gives the second-year player a significant workload, especially in the passing game. Furthermore, McLaughlin could see an even larger role if Samaje Perine doesn’t make the final roster, potentially giving him a top-24 upside despite having an ADP outside the top-40 running backs.

Bo Nix finds Jaleel McLaughlin to set up the @Broncos in scoring position!

📺: #DENvsIND on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/r87EoxTrFq

— NFL (@NFL) August 11, 2024

Fantasy Football Running Back Busts to Avoid

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

Daily fantasy football players and bettors loved Jones during the NFL playoffs. He was the RB2 in the postseason on a points-per-game basis, averaging 113 rushing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest against two talented defenses.

The veteran running back had at least 108 rushing yards and 16.6 or more fantasy points in both playoff matchups. However, fantasy players should be more concerned with Jones missing six games and leaving two others early during the regular season than his playoff success. Furthermore, he is coming off the worst fantasy season of his career since his rookie year.

According to PFF, Jones set career lows in yards per rushing attempt (4.5) and breakaway run rate (18.6%). Furthermore, he had a lower missed tackle forced per rushing attempt rate (16%) than Royce Freeman (per Fantasy Points Data).

Jones will turn 30 during the upcoming season and struggled to stay healthy last year. Instead, fantasy players should pass on him and draft Ty Chandler with a later ADP.

Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals

Some had high hopes for Moss after the Bengals signed him to replace Joe Mixon this offseason. The veteran running back averaged 22 touches and 12.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in his five healthy contests for the Indianapolis Colts without Jonathan Taylor last season. However, he was a wildly inconsistent player during those five games.

Moss averaged under four yards per rushing attempt and scored nine or fewer fantasy points in 60% of those contests. Unfortunately, the veteran was even worse than those numbers suggest.

His 3.1% explosive run rate, 2.29 yards after contact per attempt, and 51% stuff rate during those five games would have ranked in the bottom six among 33 running backs with at least 170 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data).

The veteran running back has struggled to stay healthy in his career as the starter. Meanwhile, Chase Brown has gained ground on the starting role and received significant hype lately. Moss might end up on the waiver wire by Week 5, putting him on my do-not-draft list.

"If I could play fantasy football, I'd take him as my first running back…He's going to have a year. I guarantee it. Special talent, special player."

- Bengals OT Orlando Brown on RB Chase Brown via @espn pic.twitter.com/K3fVtxZ1zI

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) August 3, 2024

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