RADIO
In this article, I will lay out the case for five rookie draft targets. While I expect these five players to be some of my most highly-rostered players this draft season, I will still be aggressively targeting a lot of other rookies – and I suggest you do too. This includes Marvin Harrison Jr., Caleb Williams, Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Jonathon Brooks, Ricky Pearsall, and Jermaine Burton. Take advantage of league-mates who don't watch college football or are overly risk-averse.
Rookies are extremely important in fantasy football. In dynasty leagues, they ARE the draft, and in redraft leagues, they can be season-defining draft picks or waiver wire pickups. Even with all the content out there, I still think the fantasy football market generally underrates rookies in redraft fantasy football.
Drafters don't like taking players they haven't seen play yet or don't know much about, and drafters underestimate the impact of late-season contributions. Rookies are likelier to put up their best fantasy scores in the fantasy playoffs rather than at the beginning of the season.
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Brock Bowers - TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Brock Bowers was one of the best tight end prospects of all time, but fantasy football drafters aren't super enthusiastic about him, mostly due to his landing spot. The Las Vegas Raiders project to be a below-average offense without a clear-cut starting QB. They also already had a solid young tight end on the roster before drafting Bowers in Michael Mayer. Those factors are scaring drafters away from a guy who has the college profile and physical traits to be a stat-stuffing fantasy goldmine at a thin position.
With an ADP of 98 on Underdog, Bowers is a total smash at a cheap price. Drafters are falling all over themselves to take rookie WRs higher than ever, but one of the best rookie receivers is going 98th and is actually TE-eligible!
As a player, Bowers is as dynamic a TE as we've seen in the draft. He has excellent hands, runs solid routes, can win at all levels of the field, and offers an uncommon ability to gain yards after the catch. In fact, I would not be surprised to see Bowers get some touches on straight hand-offs. The Raiders have a weak RB room, so it's possible Bowers gets carries lined up in the backfield or on jet motion. You can read my full prospect profile on Bowers here.
One of the keys to big-time fantasy season for tight ends is a path to being second on their team in targets. While Bowers has Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers to deal with, his contingent value would be enormous if one were to go down. It's also quite possible that he overtakes Meyers as the second-best offensive weapon on the Raiders. I expect his best games to come later in the season as a featured offensive star.
What’s a better comp for Brock Bowers?
Dallas Clark on steroids
or
Jonnu Smith/George Kittle hybrid
— GPNGC (@draft32teams) March 6, 2024
Brian Thomas Jr. - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Thomas Jr. was selected 23rd overall by the Jaguars and profiles as a direct replacement for Calvin Ridley. Ridley had a tumultuous season as the Jags' primary outside threat, failing to secure a bunch of big plays. Ridley only caught 76 balls on 136 targets. If Brian Thomas sees anywhere near 130 targets, it's extremely likely he'll obliterate his WR42 price tag.
Thomas was the WR2 behind Malik Nabers at LSU last year, but his traits popped on film enough for the Jaguars to select him to be their top outside WR. Thomas caught 68 balls for 1177 yards and a whopping 17 touchdowns for Jayden Daniels. While some have labeled his game as raw, the physical tools, including size (6-3, 209) and blazing speed (4.33 40), are undeniable. Simply put, when a player with Thomas' tools and profile hits, he hits in a huge way.
Trevor Lawrence just got paid, and the Jaguars offense will look to take a step forward under Doug Pederson. While Christian Kirk and Evan Engram will both earn targets, Thomas has a physical skill set that they simply don't have, and his ability to score touchdowns from all parts of the field makes him an immediate scoring threat and potential red zone monster.
“This continued to be the case on Monday, with Thomas seemingly getting open with ease throughout team drills. He was able to get behind the defense on several plays where he didn't see a target before catching a touchdown from Mac Jones late in practice. Thomas has shown more in… https://t.co/r2iog4wQB2
— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) June 11, 2024
Look how much quicker Brian Thomas Jr. is compared to everyone else… https://t.co/XyPSiCXu2W
— GPNGC (@draft32teams) June 7, 2024
Jayden Daniels - QB, Washington Commanders
We haven't had a rookie quarterback light up the fantasy landscape in a while. I believe this year, we will see the best fantasy season for a rookie QB we've ever seen. While Caleb Williams has a chance to do it, I predict Jayden Daniels will outscore him and take that title. I wouldn't be shocked to see both Williams and Daniels finish the season as top-10 QBs and possibly the two best fantasy rookie QBs of all time.
The pro and college games are becoming more similar, and college QBs are more prepared for the NFL than they've ever been. Jayden Daniels wasn't my favorite prospect, but he has the tools that if he hits, he hits in a huge way.
First, Daniels has a very fantasy-friendly game. His rushing upside is game-breaking, and he can sling it well enough to produce through the air as well. You can read my full prospect profile on Daniels here.
If you had just these 2 data points:
This MPH
40:4 TD:INT in the SEC
What would have to be the circumstances for you to want to bet against a profile including those 2 data points? https://t.co/QanL9H1Pl8
— GPNGC (@draft32teams) March 22, 2024
The Commanders have the right surroundings for Daniels to excel as a rookie. Kliff Kingsbury was not a great head coach, but he should be able to craft an up-tempo offense that fits Daniels' skill set. Washington has a legitimate WR1 in Terry McLaurin, who can immediately be his young QB's best friend. Draft Daniels with confidence; his price will likely continue to increase as we get closer to the season.
Jayden Daniels #NFLDraft film breakdown by NCAA coach. https://t.co/jQQekwlNDF pic.twitter.com/Pv8YfaPNvV
— GPNGC (@draft32teams) March 1, 2024
Ray Davis - RB, Buffalo Bills
Two drafts ago, I pounded the table for Kyren Williams as a late-round running back that could end up a steal. He struggled with injuries as a rookie but was a fantasy force last season. Williams had terrific film but did not test well, which impacted his ultimate draft slot. Prior to this year's draft, I hoped Ray Davis would get day two draft capital, but he fell to the fourth round, where Buffalo happily scooped him up. While his draft position may not have been ideal, he has everything we want in a fantasy sleeper.
Day Three running backs are typically high-risk investments. In most cases, there's a reason they fell to day three. I predict Davis to be an exception. First, one of the reasons Davis slid in the draft was his age, as a 25 year-old rookie running back is probably not the most valuable long-term asset. But that's exactly why Davis is a solid bet in redraft and best ball. The Bills have no incentive whatsoever to bring him along slowly.
Davis is a tough, instinctive runner with natural contact balance and vision. He is short at just 5-8, but his compact frame makes him somewhat of a bowling ball at 211 pounds. Davis' skill set is also very fantasy-friendly. He has the best RB goal-line profile on the Bills and was an exceptional receiver in college. His receiving skills make him a weapon in the passing game. James Cook is a nice player, but it's not hard to envision Davis taking over short-yardage. If he proves to be a better inside runner and/or receiver than Cook, who had a bunch of drops last year, there's a non-zero chance he ends up as the 1A in a timeshare. While that projection is lofty, that's how high I am on his game.
https://t.co/IbgeeoWkt8@MoveTheSticks https://t.co/1JsqWPOzhw pic.twitter.com/y1ou4gh5qS
— GPNGC (@draft32teams) April 24, 2024
Fowler: Ray Davis could have 'sneaky-big impact' https://t.co/BivH0mcctw
— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) May 7, 2024
Jacob Cowing - WRs, San Francisco 49ers
At this time, Brandon Aiyuk's status is up in the air. If he does end up traded, the 49ers will have a gaping hole at wide receiver. Ricky Pearsall was one of my favorite receivers in the draft and figures to slide into a lot of playing time if Aiyuk is dealt. However, Jacob Cowing is a deep sleeper who I believe has the talent to earn playing time at some point for Kyle Shanahan.
To be clear, I am not advocating selecting Cowing for anything other than a late-round flier in deeper leagues or a target in a rookie draft. It is unlikely he has a fantasy role in Week 1. However, I am a believer in acquiring talent and letting the chips fall, and Cowing has already generated some buzz this offseason.
As a player, Cowing is a crafty, speedy route-runner with competitiveness that jumps off the screen when watching him play. He amassed 316 catches for 4477 yards and 33 touchdowns during his college career and showed well at the Senior Bowl. The only downside with Cowing's profile is his size at just 5-foot-8, 168 pounds. It's easy to dismiss small, light WRs, but after Tank Dell burst onto the scene last year, it's possible there's a place for them in today's NFL.
If you were in on Tank Dell, you should probably be in on Jacob Cowing https://t.co/jGI3GpaoRZ
— GPNGC (@draft32teams) March 19, 2024
If small light WRs really are becoming a thing (skeptical) then Jacob Cowing is an intriguing bet…
Absolute gamer. True football player. Competes. Highly productive. Has all the traits to run routes. Ran 4.38.
But 5-8, 168 is so small.pic.twitter.com/wxbaiHSYGU
— GPNGC (@draft32teams) March 15, 2024
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