RADIO
As we close in on August, the NFL is collectively taking over the consciousness (and maybe unconsciousness) of sports fans everywhere.
The NFL is the most highly covered league in professional sports and while I happen to cover all three of the NFL, MLB, and NBA - I made some time during the MLB All-Star Break to get started dialing into the coming 2024 NFL season.
We haven't even seen these teams play a preseason game yet, so we are going off what we saw last year and what we expect this coming season based on player movement, coach movement, and schedules. I have made my predictions on all 32 NFL teams (see the table below) and rated them by confidence level. Let's take a look at some of my favorite picks for the coming season. If you love my picks (or hate them) feel free to let me hear about them on X @ThunderDanDFS.
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Team Win Totals - NFL Futures Betting Picks
Odds are courtesy of FanDuel SportsBook. Strength of Schedule ratings are based on 2023 records, NOT 2024 predicted records.
Atlanta Falcons OVER 9.5 wins (-148)
The juice on this pick isn't ideal, but reflects that the public shares my optimism when it comes to Atlanta taking a big leap this season.
Most of us can agree that Arthur Smith mismanaged his talent during his time in Atlanta and there is a lot of talent to like on the offensive side of the football with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts.
Can Raheem Morris come in and take a good roster and get wins? And can Kirk Cousins distribute the ball to these young weapons and put up enough points to get 10 wins?
The Falcons primetime schedule for 2024:
Week 2: vs Eagles (MNF)
Week 3: vs Chiefs (SNF)
Week 5: vs Buccaneers (TNF) Week 15: at Raiders (MNF) pic.twitter.com/cXwV6ceNfz— Everything Georgia (@GAFollowers) May 15, 2024
I really do think so. And while I know there are still some questions on defense, this division is weak and there for the taking. Carolina shouldn't be much better, the Saints are stuck in neutral, and the Bucs likely overachieved last season.
When you look at the Falcons' schedule, it's the absolute easiest based on 2023 team winning percentages. Not only do they play in a weak division, but they get the Broncos, Raiders, Giants, and Commanders on the schedule this year. If they sweep the division and win those four games, that's ten wins right there. If you think they drop a few divisional games, they still have winnable matchups against the Chargers, Vikings, Seahawks, and Steelers.
Los Angeles Rams OVER 8.5 wins (-144)
My second favorite pick is taking the Rams for nine wins this year. This line at 8.5 feels a bit too low to me for a team that won ten games last season and brings back all their weapons on offense.
Sure, there are questions on the defensive side of the ball, especially with the departure of Aaron Donald and defensive coordinator Raheem Morris. But I think Sean McVay's offense could be good enough to win some shootouts and mask their deficiencies on defense, especially in a division where no one (other than the Niners) really plays much defense at all.
The schedule is certainly tougher than Atlanta's but I have the Rams pretty far ahead of Seattle and Arizona in their own division and they should be competitive against other good teams. We just need nine wins to cash this bet, which feels like the floor for this team as long as Matthew Stafford stays healthy. They are well-coached and proved last year to everyone not to count them out.
Tennessee Titans UNDER 6.5 wins (-128)
My betting friends often criticize me for taking too many OVERS, so let's look at at least one UNDER that I am on for this season.
There are only a few teams with lower win total lines than the Titans and that's the Patriots (4.5) and Panthers (5.5). I expect both of those teams to stink, but going under an already low number isn't always a good idea.
What's pretty incredible to me is that while Tennessee has the 10th easiest schedule (check the chart), they still opened as a favorite in just one of their 17 games. I realize that their division has traditionally been pretty weak recently, but the Houston Texans are on the rise, the Colts were tough last year even without their phenom QB (who is coming back and looks like he's ready to go crazy), and the Jaguars - while overrated last season - were still no slouches and played some very competitive football.
So if they are only able to squeak out 1-2 divisional games, where else are they going to find wins? They get the AFC East with an improved Jets team so I'll give them a win over New England only there. They also face the NFC North, which means they'll see a good Lions team, an improving Packers squad, and a likely improved Bears team.
Other than Washington and New England - there are no really bad opponents here and I'm not entirely sold on the Will Levis experiment. Even if he plays okay, he's still easily the worst quarterback in his division.
Detroit Lions OVER 10.5 wins (-112)
I hope you had a chance to watch "Receiver" on NetFlix because it was awesome to see Amon-Ra St. Brown behind the scenes as well as plenty of Dan Campbell speeches. Detroit should have been playing in the Super Bowl and you and I (and Dan Campbell) all know it.
The Lions bring back their entire offense, which was one of the best in the league last season, and have a young, opportunistic defense to go with it.
This team won 12 games and yet we are getting pretty close to even money for them to win just 11 this season? I realize the rest of their division is improving (well, maybe not Minnesota), but the NFC North title runs through Detroit this season, make no doubt about it.
Detroit Lions off-season:
Jared Goff extension ☑️
Amon-Ra St. Brown extension ☑️
Penei Sewell extension ☑️
Dan Campbell extension ☑️
Brad Holmes extension ☑️
Keep all 3 coordinators ☑️
Overhaul CB room ☑️Pretty damn good.https://t.co/wGreINt8KW via @freep
— Dave Birkett (@davebirkett) May 13, 2024
As far as the schedule goes, they dodged the AFC North, Chiefs, Eagles, and Dolphins. Their toughest games outside the division come against Dallas, San Francisco, Buffalo, and the Los Angeles Rams. I think they could be better than all those teams other than the Niners, to whom they owe some payback. The sky is the limit in Detroit this season and I don't see why they can't win 12-13 games and make a run at the Super Bowl.
Indianapolis Colts OVER 8.5 wins (-104)
Here's a spot where I am going a little bit against the grain. Our chart shows us the Colts are currently favored in only 7/17 games, however, I think they have the potential to be better than a lot of people expect them to be.
This is a team that won nine games last year, most of those with Gardner Minshew under center. If Anthony Richardson can stay healthy, he could take the NFL by storm this season with his rushing and ability to extend plays. He packed on even more weight this offseason and looks like a freaking linebacker out there.
#Colts WR Josh Downs getting some offseason work in — with a cameo from QB Anthony Richardson. Here’s your reminder that Downs set the Colts’ single-season rookie record with 68 catches last year. Turned them into 771 yards and two TDs. —> https://t.co/eSpIcRtz3R
🎥 via JD’s IG pic.twitter.com/QkrFwd4I4K
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) July 20, 2024
Richardson's head coach Shane Steichen got the most out of Jalen Hurts in Philly and has another dual-threat QB that he can work with in Richardson, a top-5 running back in Jonathan Taylor, and what should be a solid group of pass catchers in Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, rookie Adonai Mitchell, and a stable of sneaky good tight ends.
This division should be a competitive one this season, with Houston favored to win it. But I like Indy as a potential Wild Card team and have them ahead of Jacksonville.
They have some very winnable games against the Giants, Broncos, Patriots, and Vikings outside of their division, with the Steelers, Dolphins, Bills, and Packers Lions as the only playoff teams from 2023 on the schedule (Houston was a playoff team, too, but is in their division).
New York Giants UNDER 6.5 wins (-150)
It's easy to pile on the Giants and kick them while they're down..so let's do it. The odds here suggest that the public loves this under, too, and it just feels like a free square to me. Of the teams with a 6.5 Vegas number (NYG, WAS, TEN, LV), I like the Giants the least of the group.
We already discussed Tennessee, who I think will struggle, but at least they have a murkier division outlook and a young prospect they like at QB.
The Giants have to face the Eagles and Cowboys a total of four times and are likely worse (on paper anyway) than the Commanders who at least added an exciting young QB through the draft.
New York is rolling with Daniel Jones again and lost their best offensive player, Saquon Barkley, to the Eagles. Malik Nabers is a major talent, but there are major issues on the offensive line here and Devin Singletary is not going to replace the production of Barkley.
Pair that with a defense that finished 21st in DVOA and you have the recipe for another bad season. The schedule does them no favors either, as they have to face the NFC North fearsome foursome as well as Atlanta and Indianapolis. I simply don't see a path to seven wins and I think there's a real chance we are looking at a team that finishes with as few as three or four.
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