NFL Playoffs Wild Card Matchup Analysis: Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Buffalo Bills will host the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card Round on Sunday afternoon. Both teams are certainly trending up entering the postseason with the Steelers winning their last three games to sneak into the postseason, and the Bills winning five straight to win the AFC East. 

Despite Buffalo being the biggest favorite this weekend, anything can happen in the postseason, especially when both teams will be playing in brutal conditions. There is expected to be more than one foot of snow that falls in Buffalo on Sunday with wind gusts likely to exceed over 50 miles per hour. 

Does the weather help even the playing field? Will the Steelers be the first seven seed to win in the playoffs? Let's dive in and find out which team has the advantage. 

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Vegas Lines

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-9.5), O/U 33.5

Steelers Offense vs. Bills Defense

Quarterback Mason Rudolph has started three games for the Steelers this year, and in all three contests, Pittsburgh placed a large emphasis on running the football. Rudolph has thrown just 71 pass attempts over those three starts, averaging out to a little over 23 pass attempts per game. 

During that same span, the Steelers have run the ball 115 times, including 46 times in the win against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17. That averages out to a little over 38 carries per game. With heavy winds and snow in the forecast, that will likely force this Pittsburgh offense to run even more this weekend -- which has worked well during this three-game win streak. They're averaging 156.7 rush yards per game over the past three contests, third-most in the NFL. 

As for the Bills' defense, they rank middle of the pack against the run this season, in terms of rush yards given up per game (110.6). But opposing running backs have averaged 4.6 yards per carry against this unit, tied for the fifth-highest in the NFL this season. Buffalo will need to force the Steelers to throw the ball on Sunday. 

Bills Offense vs. Steelers Defense

The Bills have one of the most electric offenses in the entire NFL. But they also have a turnover machine in quarterback Josh Allen. Despite Allen leading the league with 44 total touchdowns and 4,840 total yards, he also led the league with 18 interceptions.

Allen threw a pick in 14 of 17 games in 2023 and now will face a tough Steelers defense. The good news for the Bills, though, is that All-Pro pass rusher T.J. Watt will not be active on Sunday due to a knee issue he suffered in Week 18. The Steelers are just 1-10 without Watt over his career while allowing over 380 total yards per game. 

The Bills are the way better team in this game. But the only way that Pittsburgh can stay in this game and have a chance is by winning the turnover battle. So, if Allen can limit the turnovers and be smart with the football, Buffalo shouldn't have any troubles on offense, especially with Watt out. 

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