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The playoffs are finally here, and the matchups are set. After an unpredictable and exciting 2023 regular season, the playoff storylines are must-see TV. From Matthew Stafford's return to Detroit to Tyreek Hill facing his former team in Kansas City, there are some very compelling on-field matchups as well.
Some teams are playing their best football at the right time, while others limped to the finish line and are trending down for the first round.
Who's going to advance and make a run in the 2023 postseason? Let's dive in as I go through the entire bracket.
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Wild Card Round Predictions
#7 Green Bay Packers (9-8) at #2 Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
Mike McCarthy takes on his former team, where he won a Super Bowl in the new age of Packers football. With Aaron Jones healthy, Jordan Love thriving, and the emergence of their young receiving corps, Green Bay is playing its best at the right time. Dallas, on the other hand, has had its ups and downs but boasts an incredible 8-0 record at AT&T Stadium this season.
Dallas is currently favored by seven-and-a-half points, and I'm taking the Cowboys to move on here. While there's a good chance Green Bay hangs around to cover the spread, the firepower of Dak Prescott, Micah Parsons, and CeeDee Lamb will be too much for the Packers.
#6 Los Angeles Rams (10-7) at #3 Detroit Lions (12-5)
The return of Matthew Stafford to Detroit couldn't come at a worse time, as the Lions finally won their first NFC North title in 30 years. Los Angeles heated up down the stretch and found new life with rookie Puka Nacua. They are seventh this season in offensive DVOA, and they will be a tough offense to eliminate from the playoffs.
Detroit has been fantastic offensively and very solid on defense, and they will need to continue their run-game dominance to advance. While the Lions are three-and-a-half-point favorites, I'm taking the Rams to upset Detroit and end their dream season early.
#5 Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) at #4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
Undoubtedly the least attractive game on the slate, both the Eagles and Buccaneers are dragging themselves to the finish line. Tampa Bay won the weakest division in football but failed to score a touchdown versus the 2-15 Panthers in the last week of the season, while Philadelphia lost five of their last six, including defeats against the Cardinals and Giants.
Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown are now banged up, the Eagles' defense has been subpar all year, and the offensive system altogether looks broken at this point. While Tampa Bay hasn't had much success against good teams this year, they are fortunate to face one of the most distraught teams at the moment in the first round. Philadelphia is favored by two-and-a-half points as of now, but I'm taking Tampa Bay to win this ugly game.
#7 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at #2 Buffalo Bills (11-6)
With Mason Rudolph leading them, the Steelers knocked off Tyler Huntley's Ravens in Week 18 and got help from the Tennessee Titans to sneak into the seventh seed. The Bills beat the Dolphins on the road to win the AFC East and earn a home game. Buffalo has been one of the best teams over the last few weeks of the season after a slow start.
T.J. Watt (knee) is likely out for the first game, and the Steelers have mainly found success from their smothering pass-rush duo. The Steelers' run game has heated up lately, and they will need to replicate some of that success if they have any chance. The Bills sit as ten-point favorites, and I'm taking them to move on here.
#6 Miami Dolphins (11-6) at #3 Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
Kansas City hasn't been as dominant as we're used to, but they do have their best defense in the Patrick Mahomes era. While the receivers have limited this offense and forced them into being a more run-heavy team, they have a very good defense with one of the most talented quarterbacks at the helm.
The Dolphins had a great season, and they have talent everywhere. The issue is their health at the moment, as they are already without top edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, along with Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert being beat up. Miami has just one impressive win this season, which came at home versus Dallas, and I'm going to take the three-and-a-half-point favorite Chiefs to move on.
#5 Cleveland Browns (11-6) at #4 Houston Texans (10-7)
The Deshaun Watson trade will be a huge topic of discussion for this matchup, but Joe Flacco and C.J. Stroud's impressive runs have these two teams playing great football at the right time. The 2023 second overall pick has turned the franchise around this year and sealed the deal with a win at Indianapolis in Week 18. Cleveland has had a dominant defense all year, and Flacco has come in to give real life to them offensively.
While the Browns dominated this matchup a few weeks ago, the Texans were without both star rookies in Stroud and Will Anderson. Cleveland hasn't been the best on the road this year, but most of the struggles came on a two-week West Coast trip. The Browns sit as two-and-a-half-point favorites, and I'm picking them to keep their season alive.
Divisional Round Predictions
#6 Los Angeles Rams (10-7) at #1 San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
San Francisco has been one of the best teams in football for the majority of the season, as they have dominated both sides of the football. Thanks to elite playmakers and a great offensive scheme, the offense seems unstoppable at times, while their defense wreaks havoc. The Rams are heating up and would really be dangerous if they upset Detroit in the first round.
The 49ers are just too tough in every facet of the game, and the Rams would have to be nearly flawless to get another upset. San Francisco moves on to the NFC title game again.
#4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) at #2 Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
If they played any other team, the Buccaneers would be an easy first-round exit. However, they will benefit from playing the dysfunctional Eagles, and I really like their chances to snag an upset at home. Their magic will end there, however, as I don't see any way this team could go into Dallas and upset them unless the Cowboys completely collapse.
It's easy to pick a Cowboys collapse because of recent history, but drawing the Packers and Buccaneers in the first two games would be a dream scenario for them. Dallas moves on and finally gets to the NFC Championship.
#5 Cleveland Browns (11-6) at #1 Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
Cleveland and Baltimore would be the dream matchup in every way in the playoffs. Flacco going back to his old team for the third duel this year between AFC North rivals, including the last meeting where the Browns came back and knocked off the Ravens in Baltimore with Deshaun Watson playing with a broken throwing shoulder. Add in the fact that the Ravens were the Browns in Cleveland before they moved; this has all the storylines possible.
This game would go down to the wire with two of the league's most elite defenses. Cleveland would have to find a way to consistently run the ball and play perfectly clean football, which they have struggled with all year. While this game will likely be a thriller, Lamar Jackson gives the Ravens the edge in the end to move on.
#3 Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) at #2 Buffalo Bills (11-6)
A rematch of the classic 2021 season playoff overtime matchup, the Bills would get a great chance at revenge on their home field for once. Kansas City has a defense that can muddy this game up and keep it close throughout, but it's going to be very tough for them to generate consistent offense without separation from their receivers.
While it could be another year where people are underestimating the Chiefs, the Bills' defense has the tools to slow down the Chiefs and give them the upper edge. This would be another classic installment of the Allen-Mahomes duels, but I think this would be one where Allen and the Bills advance.
Championship Round Predictions
#2 Dallas Cowboys (12-5) at #1 San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
A rematch from earlier this year, the 49ers dominated the Cowboys this season and would get another chance at them in Santa Clara. In this scenario, Dallas benefitted greatly from easy matchups they could win at home, but going on the road to take on the Niners is an entirely different challenge.
The Cowboys' run will end here, as the Niners again will have their way with them on their home turf. The Baltimore Ravens are the only team to get a win on the road against the Niners, and a team that struggles so badly on the road, like Dallas, will not upset them away from home. San Francisco gets back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2020.
#2 Buffalo Bills (11-6) at #1 Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
Buffalo has been one of the hottest teams to end the year, but the Ravens have an elite defense along with the league MVP on their side. The new Todd Monken offense has transformed the Ravens, and Lamar Jackson might be playing the best he's ever played. There isn't much any team can do to stop him other than hope he messes up.
The Bills will struggle to consistently move the ball against Baltimore, and Jackson will do enough for the Ravens to get by Buffalo. The Ravens will return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2013 and the first time with Jackson.
Super Bowl LVIII Prediction
#1 San Francisco 49ers (12-5) vs. #1 Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
A number one seed versus number one seed Super Bowl isn't the boldest prediction for how this all unfolds, but the Ravens and 49ers have been a tier above the rest of the NFL all season long. Once the Ravens adjusted to their new offense and new additions, they looked unstoppable, aside from a blown lead versus a very good Browns team. San Francisco had a tough road stretch against good defenses where they dealt with injuries, but they have been very solid otherwise.
The Ravens got the best of the Niners in their matchup this year, as they forced Brock Purdy into four interceptions. This game would promise to be must-see TV again, but it seems like the year the Ravens end up hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February.
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