RADIO
Heading into Week 17, we're in the second-to-last week of the year, and we really have to focus on the games that are going to feature two teams that have something to play for in their games. In Week 18, we'll see a multitude of teams that are resting their stars for the playoffs or to keep them healthy for next season. This is our last week where we can have a strong bit of confidence across pretty much the entire board.
Due to varying circumstances, I was unable to get a column out last week. However, in Week 15, my season of struggles continued. Sam Hubbard of the Cincinnati Bengals ended his hot streak because Tom Brady was just getting the ball out too fast all game long. Saquon Barkley was trending in the right direction towards his under before a strong finish pushed him over the top with the New York Giants leading down the stretch. We got a win with Atlanta Falcons running back Cordarrelle Patterson. It was close, but he cleared it. The Philadelphia Eagles and running back Miles Sanders turned the ball over too much early in the game, and they never got enough of a lead to lean on him in the running game. Our final loss of the week was Indianapolis Colts wideout Parris Campbell, who, despite his team scoring 36 points, saw just three targets in a game that went into a long overtime.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those that may be new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 17
O71.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne is a certified stud. He’s explosive out of the backfield, and he gives this team a great compliment to quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Etienne has hit this mark in back-to-back games, and he’s cleared it in six games overall this year. When the Jaguars can get Travis into space, he’s one of the league’s best, as evidenced by the team ranking second in open field yards per carry.
The Houston Texans are riding high following their second win of the season, but they still struggle to stop running backs, even when they know that’s all the team is going to do. They’ve allowed 2104 yards to opposing running backs this year, and they gave up 71 yards on carries to Etienne in the previous matchup back in October. With a full workload, Etienne is primed to crush this number.
O57.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115
Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco could have been putting up absolutely ridiculous stat lines over the last few weeks, but the offensive playcalling has been a limiting factor in that department. However, he has still managed to hit this line in each of his last seven games, including against his opponent this week in the Denver Broncos. The Broncos just fired their head coach last week, and they’re unlikely to dramatically change their stripes with their season over in terms of draft pick placement and playoff hopes.
The Broncos are fourth this season against the pass by DVOA, but they’re just 22nd against the run. They gave quarterback Patrick Mahomes some fits in their last matchup as Mahomes threw three interceptions in the game. However, Pacheco was running through this defense at a great clip. They’ve given up the 12th-most rushing yards, and Pacheco looks primed to add to that total this week.
U58.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
There was a stretch in the center of the season where taking the under on Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs was dumb and stupid. In fact, he had run for 93 or more yards in each of his last five games prior to last week. For this game, there is one main thing that attracted me to this line, other than the matchup. When the team made the decision to bench quarterback Derek Carr, that signaled to me that they had no plans to win any significant games this season. Jacobs came in under this mark last week, and that was just the third time this season he had done that. However, he hasn’t played this defense this year.
On the year, the San Francisco 49ers have been an issue for teams on the ground all year long. They’re the only team that has held their opponents under 1000 yards this season. In fact, they’ve given up just 885 yards on the ground. The 49ers haven’t allowed a running back to hit this line since their Week 6 loss to the Atlanta Falcons when they trailed nearly the entire game. I’m riding the hot hand that they’ve had for the last two and a half months.
Aaron Jones
O19.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones was limited last week in the team’s victory over the Miami Dolphins, but another week of recovery should have made him more available. He also is in a key divisional matchup that I’m sure he won’t want to miss. His rushing numbers have been inconsistent this season often due to game script, but he’s frequently been used in the receiving game. He’s hit this number in nine games this season, including against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1, and he had hit in four straight prior to last week against the Dolphins.
The Vikings have been a suspect defense all season long. They’re 22nd overall and 24th against the pass. They’ve given up 22 or more points in each of their seven games, and they’ve given up 20 more points in all but three games all season. One of those games was against the Dolphins who were on their third-string quarterback to end the game. They’ve given up the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs, and Jones should be in a good spot with this one.
Keenan Allen
O70.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -115
Since returning from his injury, Los Angeles Chargers wideout Keenan Allen has been gradually working his way back to his former self, and he’s really been hitting his stride over the last six weeks. Since Week 11, he’s hit this number in five of his six games including each of the last four weeks. No matter what the rest of the offense is doing, you can count on quarterback Justin Herbert seeking out Allen consistently throughout the game, as evidenced by his seven or more targets in each of his six games since returning from injury.
On the year, the Los Angeles Rams have been inconsistent at best on the defensive side of the ball, particularly against the pass. After ranking sixth by DVOA against the pass last season, they’re 20th in that metric this year. They’re tied for the 10th-most DraftKings points allowed per game against opposing wideouts, and, while the team played well last week, Allen and Herbert have been just playing at too high of a level right now.
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