RADIO
We have made it to the postseason. The regular season flew by, and it was 18 weeks of absolute madness. Of the 14 teams that made the playoffs, three of them were projected to be picking in the top four in this year’s NFL draft. Meanwhile, three of the top 10 teams with the best odds to win the Super Bowl didn’t even make it to the show. Despite all of the wild outcomes, we managed to scrape out some profit in this column with just under two units won this season. Now, we just have to keep that rolling through the playoffs.
We went into the final week of the NFL season with nearly half of the league resting players and having nothing to play for. We came out of it with a 4-1 week and several easy cashes. Justin Jefferson cleared his prop by more than 100 yards. Stefon Diggs cleared his mark in the first half, but the easiest win of the day was Wan'Dale Robinson, who had 33 yards on his first catch of the day. We got a late win out of Dalton Schultz, but it wasn’t meant to be for Rachaad White as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers couldn’t get anything going all day long.
We’re continuing to add to our profits every week, but every narrow loss still stings to see. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my X.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Wild Card Weekend
Joe Flacco O37.5 Passing Attempts
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -108
Our first prop of the day comes from one of the three games of the weekend that aren’t expected to be dealing with any weather issues. Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco came in off the couch, and he started slinging that rock around. In five games as the starter for Cleveland, Flacco attempted 42 or more passes in four of the five games, and the lone game where he didn’t saw his team leading by 17 at halftime.
Against these same Houston Texans just a few weeks ago, Flacco had 42 passing attempts, and again, the team still had a substantial lead late in the game. The Browns were leading by 14 points on what was effectively their last drive. Despite that, they still attempted three passes out of the nine plays they ran on the drive. On the year, the Texans are second by DVOA against the run compared to 23rd against the pass. I think the Texans should keep this game close, and that should see Flacco dropping back to pass a lot.
Jordan Love O8.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: ESPNBet
Odds: -110
Our second prop of the week is another one that we don’t have to worry about the weather for. Are we noticing a pattern yet? Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love is prepping for his playoff start against one of the best defenses in the NFL this season in the Dallas Cowboys. The Packers have been great at keeping him upright with the third-fewest sacks allowed and the fifth-best adjusted sack rate this year. However, when he has been pressured, he has shown the ability to escape the pocket and pick up yards with his legs. Love ranked 12th in the NFL among quarterbacks in total rushing yards.
Love hit this mark in 10 out of 17 games this year, and in his 18 games that he has started for Green Bay, he has hit it in 11 out of those 18 after he went for 23 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs two years ago. On the year, the Cowboys have allowed 317 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, and they’ve allowed this mark in 10 of their 17 games.
Some of the players going under include Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions, Mac Jones of the New England Patriots, and Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers, whose 261 combined rushing yards were just 14 more than Love had by himself this season. If Love is forced to scramble just once or twice in this game, this mark is extremely achievable.
Amon-Ra St. Brown O88.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -115
Our third prop of the day, as you likely guessed, is coming from the final game that will remain unbothered by the weather. The Detroit Lions and wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown are matching up with former quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams in a battle between two teams that have a combined record of 7-3 over their last 10 games. St. Brown was just named to the first-team AP All-Pro for the first time in his career, and it was very well deserved.
He was tied for second in the NFL in receptions and was third in yards. St. Brown has cleared this mark in 11 out of 16 games this year, and he had more than 100 yards in nine of those outings. As of this writing, there is optimism that star rookie tight end Sam LaPorta (knee) will be able to play on Sunday, even though he has yet to practice this week. Even if he does suit up, he’ll likely be limited in what he can do. The Rams allow the 10th-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts, and St. Brown is the engine that makes this offense run. Even with extra attention sent his way, I expect his volume to help carry him this week.
James Cook O15.5 Rushing Attempts
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -105
Now, we finally have to get into some of those ugly weather games because we couldn’t avoid them forever unfortunately. Buffalo Bills running back James Cook is likely to see a ton of work this week in a game that could have winds up to 65 miles per hour. Cook didn’t hit this mark much early in the year, but down the stretch, the Bills rode him into the playoffs. Cook hit this line in five of the team’s final seven games after clearing it just once in the team’s first 10 games.
The Bills play the Pittsburgh Steelers this week in a game where I expect it to be an ugly mess with both sides struggling to get anything going on offense. The Steelers are sixth against the pass and ninth against the run by DVOA; however, they have still allowed the 10th-most rushing yards this season to running backs.
Looking at last season against the Miami Dolphins when it started to snow heavily late in the game, the Bills ran 21 plays on their final two drives without counting kneel downs and field goals. Of those 21 plays, 12 of them were runs. This Bills offensive line is one of the best at running the football, and I think we could see a big game from Cook here.
Baker Mayfield U33.5 Passing Attempts
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -114
Our final play of the week is going to be just our eighth under of the entire season, and it’s the first since Week 6 when we lost Najee Harris rushing yards by 0.5 yards. We’re targeting Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield to have a quiet night through the air on this one. For starters, the weather on Monday is projected to have 15 mile per hour winds to go with a near 70 percent chance of rain. Additionally, the Bucs haven’t really been making Baker air it out this season.
He’s gone under this line in 10 out of 17 contests this season, including the early-season matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles, which was also a game that had a fair bit of rain involved. In that game, Baker actually threw a season-low 25 passes. The Eagles defense has been susceptible to the pass all year; however, their run defense has taken a major hit. They ranked eighth by DVOA against the run from Weeks 1 through Week 10. In Weeks 11 through 18, they were 24th. This group can be ran on, and I think the Bucs will try to keep the ball out of Philly’s hands by churning the clock and making it run fast with a lot of work on the ground.
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