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The undefeated Chiefs and Vikings will be two of the four teams that are on a bye during Week 6. As we march forward in a season that has been filled with wild upsets, will heavy favorites live up to expectations this week?
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game and rank their selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks, you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. There may still be some injury questions for Sunday and Monday games. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player is in or out. Let’s get to our Week 6 picks.
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Week 6 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 14 – Houston at New England
- 13 – Tampa Bay at New Orleans
The Patriots are making a change at quarterback with rookie Drake Maye replacing Jacoby Brissett. The Texans lost start wide receiver Nico Collins to a hamstring injury. It doesn’t matter. The Texans are the vastly superior team and still have C.J. Stroud under center. They should win this matchup handedly.
The highest-graded QB on 3rd/4th downs this season:
💰 CJ Stroud - 90.1 pic.twitter.com/G8I0vfIvbv
— PFF HOU Texans (@PFF_Texans) October 9, 2024
The matchup between the Buccaneers and Saints has lost a lot of its luster with Derek Carr (oblique) set to miss multiple games. Fifth-round rookie Spencer Rattler will start in his place. The Buccaneers have one of the better offenses in the league, averaging 25.4 points per game. Don’t expect Rattler to be able to help the Saints keep pace.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 6 Pick'em Pools
12 – Pittsburgh at Las Vegas
Things are already unraveling for the Raiders. Davante Adams will be out again as he deals with a hamstring injury and his request to be traded. Gardner Minshew II has been so bad that he lost his starting job to Aidan O'Connell. This is a great bounce-back spot for the Steelers, who have lost back-to-back games after starting out the season 3-0.
11 – Atlanta at Carolina
The Panthers finally have a competent offense with Andy Dalton starting at quarterback. The problem is that their defense has given up an average of 33.0 points per game. After scoring a total of 62 points over their last two games, Kirk Cousins and the rest of the Falcons’ offense should be able to carry the team to victory.
KIRK COUSINS IS THE FIRST QB WITH 500+ PASS YARDS IN A GAME THIS SEASON 🔥 pic.twitter.com/pfUtIgVTAR
— ESPN (@espn) October 4, 2024
10 – Chicago vs. Jacksonville
The Jaguars finally put one in the win column by defeating the Colts in Week 5. It wasn’t exactly a great win, though, with Anthony Richardson (oblique) and Jonathan Taylor (ankle) sidelined for the Colts. The Jaguars have allowed the most passing yards per game in the league, setting up Caleb Williams with a favorable opportunity to throw for at least 300 yards for the third time over his last four games.
9 – Philadelphia vs. Cleveland
The Eagles haven’t been great with their 2-2 record and injuries hampering their offense. However, they should still be the favorites against a Browns team that is 1-4 and has scored a total of just 79 points. The Browns continue to roll out Deshaun Watson, who has not thrown for more than 196 yards in a game. He also has one or no touchdown passes in four of five games.
NFL Pick'em Toss-Ups Of Week 6
8 – Cincinnati at New York Giants
It’s surprising that the Giants have a better record than the Bengals through five games. The Bengals have scored an average of 28.0 points per game, while the Giants have only averaged 17.8 points per game. On paper, the Bengals have significantly more offensive talent, so they should win this game. However, the Giants have held their own, even in most of their losses, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if they won.
7 – Baltimore vs. Washington
Another big surprise is the Commanders (4-1) having a better record than the Ravens (3-2) through five games. This will be a good test for the Commanders, on the road against a Super Bowl contender. The Ravens should be able to win this game as they have the more talented overall roster, but with how well Jayden Daniels has been playing, the Commanders might be able to pull off the upset.
6 – Detroit at Dallas
The Lions have played three home games on their way to a 3-1 start. The Cowboys are 3-0 on the road, but they have lost both of their home games. Still, the Cowboys were 8-0 at home last year. Injuries on both sides of the ball could be the Cowboys’ undoing, but the combination of home-field advantage and the duo of Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb could help the Cowboys put a scare into the Lions.
5 – Green Bay vs. Arizona
Kyler Murray can almost single-handedly carry the Cardinals to a victory. Still, they are just 2-3 this season despite averaging 24.0 points per game. Their defense has been a problem, allowing 25.8 points per game. The Packers deserve to be heavy favorites at home, but Murray potentially going off against a defense that has allowed the 10th-most passing yards per game in the league is also a possibility.
Kyler Murray knew he was scoring. See ya. pic.twitter.com/djwu1CPiMF
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 6, 2024
4 – Los Angeles Chargers at Denver
Points will likely be at a premium in this matchup. The Broncos have allowed 14.6 points per game and the Chargers have given up 12.5 points per game. The Chargers have the advantage of having added rest coming off their bye week, but this game could come down to which team can convert the most field goal attempts.
3 – Seattle vs. San Francisco
Anything can happen during a divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football. The Seahawks sit atop the NFC West at 3-2, while the 49ers have a 2-3 record despite having a +20 point differential. Two of their three losses have come by three or fewer points. When in doubt, I usually recommend taking the home team on Thursday Night Football.
2 – Buffalo at New York Jets
A loss to the Vikings in London proved to be the final straw for Robert Saleh, who was fired by the Jets this week. Probably his biggest undoing was the loss to the Broncos the week prior in which the Jets scored only nine points. Will interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich help turn around their season? I want no part of picking this game in any pool that matters with a new coach for the Jets and the Bills battling injuries.
1 – Tennessee vs. Indianapolis
Richardson is trending towards returning for Week 6, but that might not actually be a good thing for the Colts considering how well Joe Flacco has played in his absence. The Colts could also be without Taylor again, which would put even more pressure on Richardson to perform in the passing game. Will Levis is not only dealing with a shoulder injury, but he has just four touchdown passes to go along with six interceptions. If you can, stay far, far away from picking this matchup.
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