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There will be four teams on a bye for Week 5, leaving us with our first limited schedule of the season. Still, there are plenty of marquee matchups to be excited about.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game and rank their selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks, you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. There may still be some injury questions for Sunday and Monday games. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player is in or out. Let’s get to our Week 5 picks.
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Week 5 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 14 – Seattle New York Giants
- 13 – Minnesota New York Jets
This is a tough week for matchups to feel overly confident about. One that stands out is taking the Seahawks to defeat the Giants in Seattle. The Giants have had added time to rest, but their offense is averaging just 15.0 points per game. Malik Nabers will have to clear the concussion protocol to be able to play, causing more concern.
The Seahawks are averaging 25.5 points per game, so look for them to take care of business at home.
This flip from Kenneth Walker III was unreal 😳 #SEAvsDET | ABC, ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/Yca5oeMCvt
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 1, 2024
The Vikings and Jets will face off in London, so the neutral field and added travel do shake things up a bit. However, the Vikings have allowed a total of just 59 points during their 4-0 start. The Jets have averaged a modest 19.0 points per game and scoring could be more difficult with Aaron Rodgers battling a knee injury. His lack of mobility could be a problem since the Vikings have the most sacks (17) in the league.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 5 Pick'em Pools
12 – Green Bay at Los Angeles Rams
After an upset victory over the 49ers two weeks ago, the Rams fell flat in a loss to the Bears in Week 4. They are still limited on offense with Cooper Kupp (ankle) and Puka Nacua (knee) out, which contributed to them only scoring 18 points against the Bears. Even with Christian Watson (ankle) likely out, the Packers have a more dangerous offense with Jordan Love back in the fold.
11 – Washington vs. Cleveland
The Commanders sit alone atop the NFC East, which is one of the bigger surprises of the season. They have played three games on the road, too. The big difference in this game is that the Commanders have scored nearly double as many points (121) as the Browns (66) have this season. The Browns are also a combined 4-6 on the road since the start of last season.
It looks like Jayden Daniels is happy.
The @Commanders have scored 42 points in Arizona. pic.twitter.com/E9iqF5YWAC
— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024
10 – Kansas City vs. New Orleans
After their hot start, the Saints have lost two straight. After scoring 91 total points in their first two games, they have combined for just 36 points over their last two games. While the Chiefs will be missing key players in Isiah Pacheco (lower leg) and Rashee Rice (knee), their defense is allowing just 18.0 points per game on their way to a 4-0 start. Expect the Chiefs to come out on top at home.
9 – Chicago vs. Carolina
The Panthers have been more productive on offense with Andy Dalton under center, but their defense is a big problem. They have allowed a staggering 32.3 points per game. Things won’t get any better for them with Derrick Brown (knee) and Shaq Thompson (Achilles) out. Expect their defense to let them down when they face the Bears in Chicago.
NFL Pick'em Toss-Ups Of Week 5
8 – Baltimore at Cincinnati
This game is probably more important for the 1-3 Bengals. They finally put one in the win column in Week 4, but beating the Panthers isn’t exactly impressive. Meanwhile, the Ravens have knocked off the Cowboys and Bills in consecutive weeks. This game being in Cincinnati is a reason to pause, but the Bengals have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game in the league. That’s a recipe for disaster against Derrick Henry.
7 – Denver vs. Las Vegas
The Broncos rode their defense to victory last week and have allowed a total of just 16 points during their two-game winning streak. Davante Adams could be out again for the Raiders, either because of his hamstring injury or his desire to be traded. I don’t think he plays, which will make scoring very difficult for the Raiders.
6 – Pittsburgh vs. Dallas
The Cowboys beat the Giants last week, but it came at a price. Dexter Lawrence II suffered a foot injury that has landed him on injured reserve. Brandin Cooks (knee) has already been ruled out and Micah Parsons (ankle) is expected to join him on the sidelines. It’s difficult to have a ton of faith in any Justin Fields-led team, but injuries might be too much for the Cowboys to overcome.
5 – San Francisco vs. Arizona
The Cardinals are tough to predict. Despite losing to the Bills in Week 1, they put up a good fight. They trounced the Rams in Week 2, then battled again in a close loss to the Lions in Week 3. However, the Commanders crushed them in Arizona last week. The 49ers are probably the play here, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Kyler Murray works his magic and possibly pulls off the upset.
Brock Purdy called out to @gkittle46 mid play and then said hi to mom 😂 @49ers pic.twitter.com/9iz0GgavFH
— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2024
4 – Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay
This is the Thursday Night Football game. There was some concern that Bijan Robinson (hamstring) might not be ready in time, but he said Wednesday that he’ll play. Anything can happen in a division matchup that takes place on short rest. When in doubt, lean toward the home team.
3 – Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis
At 0-4, the Jaguars are one of the biggest disappointments of the season. Still, the Colts are in a tough spot here on the road. Jonathan Taylor (ankle) might be out and Anthony Richardson is battling an oblique injury. Richardson did practice Wednesday, which is a positive sign that he could take the field. However, if Taylor is indeed out, their offense could struggle. He has 349 rushing yards and four touchdowns this season.
2 – Houston vs. Buffalo
This game should be fun, but I want one part in picking it for any pool that matters. These are two of the best teams in the league and their quarterbacks alone can carry them to victory. The lean here is toward the Texans because they are at home and the Bills are missing some key players on defense. Von Miller (suspension) will miss the next four games, further depleting their defense.
1 – New England vs. Miami
This is going to be tough to watch. The Patriots have scored 16 or fewer points in three of their four games. The Dolphins have combined for 15 points over the last two games with Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) out. Stay away from this if you can, but if forced to choose, I’d lean toward the home team. At least Jacoby Brissett does a good job of limiting turnovers. He has thrown one interception and lost one fumble this season.
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