RADIO
We’ve reached the final week of the NFL regular season. While some games will be of no consequence, others will come with significant playoff implications.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game and rank their selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks, you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. There may still be some injury questions for Sunday and Monday games. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player is in or out. Let’s get to our Week 18 picks.
Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
Week 18 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 16 – Baltimore vs. Cleveland
- 15 – Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans
The Ravens have already clinched a playoff spot, but a win against the Browns in Week 18 would also lock up the AFC North for them. The Browns have lost five in a row, and their offense has been awful with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at the helm. In his last two starts, he has no touchdown passes and three interceptions. Look for the Ravens to dispatch the Browns with ease.
Lamar Jackson this season 🔥
Total Yards - 4,807 (Career Best)
Total TDs - 43 (T-Career Best)
INTs - 4 (Career Best*)
Comp Pct - 67.9% (Career Best)
Passer Rating - 121.6 (Career Best)*Min 200 Att. pic.twitter.com/tVY6apkHjv
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 26, 2024
If the Buccaneers defeat the Saints, they lock up the NFC South. The Saints have lost three games in a row to fall to 5-11. When these two teams met earlier in the season, the Buccaneers scored 51 points in a lopsided victory. Look for their offense to shine again and lead them to a victory.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 18 Pick'em Pools
14 – Atlanta vs. Carolina
If the Falcons defeat the Panthers and the Buccaneers lose to the Saints, the Falcons will win the NFC South. Given the motivation, the Falcons will likely emerge with the win in this game. However, the Panthers aren’t exactly a pushover right now. They are 1-5 over their last six games, but three of those losses were by six or fewer points. It might be uncomfortable at times, but the Falcons should still will.
13 – Green Bay vs. Chicago
The Packers are locked into a Wild Card spot, so they don’t have a ton of motivation for this game. However, given how bad the Bears have been, it would be a surprise if the Bears won. They have lost 10 straight games and are 0-7 on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Packers are 6-2 at home.
12 – Arizona vs. San Francisco
Both of these teams will finish the season with losing records. The reason to take the Cardinals in this matchup is that Brock Purdy (elbow) won't play for the 49ers. When he sat out Week 12 against the Packers, the 49ers scored just 10 points with Brandon Allen as their starter. Journeyman Joshua Dobbs will start this game, but this is still a great spot for the Cardinals to earn a win.
11 – Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas
The Raiders are trying to end the season on a three-game winning streak. However, their last two wins came against bad teams, the Jaguars and Saints. While the Chargers are locked into a Wild Card spot, they could finish as high as the fifth seed. Avoiding the AFC North winner in the first round would be desirable, so the Chargers could play their starters for a significant portion of this game.
10 – Denver vs. Kansas City
This comes down to motivation. If the Broncos win, they are in the playoffs. The Chiefs have already locked up the top seed in the AFC, so they are expected to rest many of their key starters. Look for the Broncos to exploit the Chiefs backups and punch their ticket into the playoffs.
Bo Nix ABSOLUTE CINEMA.
📺: #DENvsCIN on NFL Network
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/LpdaNr6sVi— NFL (@NFL) December 29, 2024
9 – Seattle at Los Angeles Rams
Rams head coach Sean McVay said Monday that he plans to rest most of his key starters for this game. That means that Jimmy Garoppolo will get the start over Matthew Stafford. We also likely won’t see Kyren Williams take the field. While the Seahawks have been eliminated from the playoffs, a win here would improve their season record to 10-7.
NFL Pick'em Toss-Ups Of Week 18
8 – Washington at Dallas
The Commanders have wrapped up a playoff spot and will either be the sixth or seventh seed in the NFC. If they do still play their starters, they might not be on the field for the entire game. If Marcus Mariota takes the majority of snaps under center, it would not be a surprise if the Cowboys won.
7 – Miami at New York Jets
The Dolphins are still in the hunt for a playoff spot, although they’ll need to win and get some help to get it. Tua Tagovailoa (hip) could be out again, which would deal a significant blow to their offense. However, the Jets have scored a total of 23 points over their last two games. If Tagovailoa plays, then the Dolphins should win this with ease. They can still win if he’s out, but it will likely be a much closer contest.
6 – Detroit vs. Minnesota
This is the marquee matchup of the week. The winner of this game wins the NFC North and gets the top seed in the NFC. The Vikings have won nine straight games and are 6-1 on the road this season. This could come down to the final minutes, but I’ll lean toward the Lions pulling out the win at home. Their offense continues to shine, scoring at least 34 points in each of their last four games.
5 – Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville
The Colts are the better team and should win this game, regardless if Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco starts at quarterback. However, the same thing could have been said last week when the Colts faced the Giants. The Colts then allowed 45 points in an embarrassing defeat. Still, the Colts will at least play this game at home, where they are 4-3 this season. The Jaguars are 1-7 on the road.
4 – Buffalo at New England
We likely won’t see much of the Bills starters in this game because they have already secured the second seed in the AFC. Still, the Patriots might not exactly be motivated to win this game. If they lose, they will have the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. I don’t feel great about backing Mitchell Trubisky, but the Bills could still win this game.
3 – Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
If the Steelers win and the Ravens lose, the Steelers will claim the AFC North. The Bengals are also still alive for a playoff spot. The timing of this game could be key. This game is scheduled to start after the Ravens and Browns game will be complete.
If the Ravens win, the Steelers will be locked into a Wild Card spot before they even take the field. If that happens, they could rest some of their starters or give them limited snaps.
#Bengals WR Tee Higgins has been on a massive heater over the past seven games:
▪️ 44 receptions
▪️ 599 yards
▪️ 8 TDsHiggins, who is an impending free agent, will have a substantial market this offseason, and his price has only gone up. Cincinnati would like to retain him… pic.twitter.com/NQJ3vtXn8e
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) December 30, 2024
2 – Houston at Tennessee
The Texans are locked into the fourth seed in the AFC. We might not see some of their starters for long in this game. Still, Davis Mills is probably a better quarterback option than either Will Levis or Mason Rudolph right now. The Titans have lost five straight games and two of those came against the Jaguars. Even against the Texans backups, they will be fighting an uphill battle to win.
1 – New York Giants at Philadelphia
With the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft in sight, the Giants defeated the Colts last week. Landing the top pick will not only be difficult now but also could cause the Giants to be stuck picking outside of the top three. A win against the Eagles would hurt their draft spot even more.
The Giants showed last week that they are still playing to win. The Eagles will also be resting many of their key starters with the second seed in the NFC already in hand. They could even be down to Tanner McKee as their starting quarterback. While a win might hurt their future, the Giants are in a favorable spot to claim another meaningless victory.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
More Fantasy Football Analysis
