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As the playoffs continue to inch closer, every team will be in action during Week 16, and among the highlight matchups will be the Ravens hosting the Steelers.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game and rank their selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks, you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. There may still be some injury questions for Sunday and Monday games. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player is in or out. Let’s get to our Week 16 picks.
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Week 16 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 15 – Detroit at Chicago
- 14 – Buffalo vs. New England
- 13 – Green Bay vs. New Orleans
The Lions will look to bounce back from their second loss of the season when they take on the Bears. Losing David Montgomery (knee) for the season is a big blow that could be a problem during the playoffs. However, his absence likely won’t be a factor against a Bears team that has lost eight games in a row.
The Bills are 6-0 at home this season, while the Patriots bring a 3-11 record into Week 16. There is the potential that this could be a letdown spot for the Bills after an emotional win over the Lions last week. However, the Patriots just don’t have enough offensive firepower to pull off the upset.
Josh Allen is moving at 16 MPH when he threw this, per @NextGenStats. While running left. Absurd stuff. pic.twitter.com/UbADeHQPoZ
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 17, 2024
Derek Carr (hand) is unlikely to play again this season. To make matters worse for the Saints, Alvin Kamara is now dealing with a groin injury that puts him in doubt for Monday. They won’t be able to hang with the Packers, who are averaging 27.1 points per game.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 16 Pick'em Pools
12 – Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
The Bengals are 5-3 on the road this season, but just 1-5 at home. As concerning as that stat is, they should be able to handle the Browns. After Jameis Winston produced another turnover fest last week, Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start in Week 16. He didn’t provide much of a spark in relief of Winston last week, throwing for 44 yards and one interception. He has three interceptions over 34 pass attempts this season.
11 – Atlanta vs. New York Giants
The Falcons will start Michael Penix Jr. over Kirk Cousins moving forward. Even though Penix will be making his first start, the Falcons are still probably in better shape at quarterback than the Giants. Tommy DeVito is in the concussion protocol and Drew Lock is dealing with a heel injury, but Lock is on track to start. Regardless of who is under center, they are unlikely to help snap the team’s nine-game losing streak.
Coach Morris has named Michael Penix Jr. the starting quarterback moving forward
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) December 18, 2024
10 – Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets
The Rams have had added time off after playing the 49ers on Thursday Night Football last week. They have won three straight games to tie the Seahawks atop the NFC West. Aaron Rodgers has looked better over the last couple of games for the Jets, but they are just 4-10 and will be fighting an uphill battle to keep this game close.
9 – Arizona at Carolina
Just when it looked like the Panthers were playing better, they gave up 30 points to Cooper Rush and the Cowboys last week. They have lost four straight games and their defense has allowed 29.9 points per game this season. The Cardinals should be able to win this matchup, but I decided not to make them a lock because they are just 2-4 on the road.
8 – Tampa Bay at Dallas
The Cowboys are 5-2 on the road, but just 1-6 at home. The Buccaneers have won four straight games, which included an impressive 40-17 victory over the Chargers in Los Angeles last week. They have also pulled off wins against the Lions and Eagles this season. As good as the Cowboys looked against the Panthers last week, trying to defeat the Buccaneers is a different matter.
NFL Pick'em Toss-Ups Of Week 16
7 – Minnesota at Seattle
This could have been a candidate for the “Wait and See” category given the uncertain statuses of both Geno Smith (knee) and Kenneth Walker III (calf). If Smith is out, the Seahawks will have no chance of knocking off the Vikings with Sam Howell under center.
However, even if Smith and Walker play, the Vikings have won seven straight and are the superior team. I’ll lean towards them winning, regardless of the status of Smith.
6 – Indianapolis vs. Tennessee
Both of these teams have problems at quarterback. The Titans are expected to bench Will Levis for Mason Rudolph, which might turn out to be an upgrade. Anthony Richardson has only completed 47.0% of his passes this season for the Colts. The Colts have the better overall team in this matchup, but anything can happen when both teams have bad options under center.
5 – Philadelphia at Washington
The Eagles take a 10-game winning streak into this matchup. Their defense has been excellent, allowing 17.6 points per game this season. As dominating as they have been, anything can happen in a road matchup against a divisional foe. The Eagles should still be able to win, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Commanders pulled off the upset.
Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin have become one of the best QB-WR Duos in the NFL. 🔥pic.twitter.com/6pZvpVMUx9
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) December 15, 2024
4 – Miami vs. San Francisco
This game being played in Miami could be the deciding factor. The Dolphins are 4-3 at home, compared to 2-5 on the road. The 49ers are 4-4 at home, but just 2-4 on the road. Both teams have been a disappointment this season, but when in doubt, lean towards the home team.
3 – Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver
This is a great matchup between two teams separated by one game in the AFC West. The Broncos have won four straight, while the Chargers have lost back-to-back games. This is the Thursday Night Football game of the week, which makes things even trickier. This game is a true toss-up, but slight lean towards the home team on a short week.
2 – Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh
When these two teams faced off in Pittsburgh earlier this season, the Steelers won by two points. Lamar Jackson struggled, throwing for 207 yards and one touchdown. The Steelers have given him problems throughout his career, although he hasn’t faced them in Baltimore since 2020. The Steelers tend to shine in big spots, but slight lean towards the Ravens with this game being in Baltimore.
1 – Las Vegas vs. Jacksonville
This might be the worst game on the slate. Mac Jones continues to start as the Jaguars play out the string, while Desmond Ridder could be forced to fill in again for Aidan O'Connell (knee). However, Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce did say Tuesday that O'Connell is trending towards playing. This could come down to which underwhelming quarterback makes the fewest mistakes.
NFL Wait And See Of Week 16
Kansas City vs. Houston
This is one of the two Saturday games. The quick turnaround might not be good for Patrick Mahomes, who injured his ankle Sunday against the Browns. Behind him on the Chiefs’ depth chart is Carson Wentz. An encouraging sign is that Mahomes practiced in full on Tuesday.
If Mahomes is out, then the Texans would be in a great position to deal the Chiefs just their second loss of the season. If he plays, then the Chiefs would be in a favorable spot to remain undefeated at home.
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