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The Cardinals, Buccaneers, Panthers, and Giants will all be on a bye during Week 11. There are still some great matchups on the board, including when the Steelers host the Ravens.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game and rank their selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks, you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. There may still be some injury questions for Sunday and Monday games. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player is in or out. Let’s get to our Week 11 picks.
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Week 11 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 14 – Detroit vs. Jacksonville
- 13 – Miami vs. Las Vegas
- 12 – Minnesota at Tennessee
The Lions playing the Jaguars this week is one of the biggest mismatches of the season. In terms of records, the Lions are 8-1, while the Jaguars are just 2-8. However, that doesn’t tell the entire story of this game. The Jaguars will be without Trevor Lawrence (shoulder), setting up Mac Jones to make another start. Jones threw for 111 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions last week against the Vikings. This could get ugly in a hurry for the Jaguars.
David Montgomery powers it in for the score 👊#DETvsHOU | 📺 NBC pic.twitter.com/B2xre3m058
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) November 11, 2024
The Dolphins pulled off a big road win over the Rams last week to improve their record to 3-6. They will have a great opportunity to get another win against a Raiders team that has lost five straight games and is 1-4 on the road this season. Tua Tagovailoa being back under center should help the Dolphins cruise to victory this week.
The Titans are 2-7, with their two wins coming against the Patriots and a Dolphins team that was playing without Tagovailoa. Even with Sam Darnold having his worst performance of the season last week, the Vikings found a way to defeat the Jaguars. The Vikings are now 7-2 and should be able to win this game with ease.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 11 Pick'em Pools
11 – Houston at Dallas
The good news for the Texans is that Nico Collins (hamstring) is poised to make his return from injured reserve. The Cowboys don’t have the same positive news on the injury front, with Dak Prescott having season-ending surgery on his hamstring. Last week, Cooper Rush threw for just 45 yards in a blowout loss to the Eagles. The Cowboys are 0-4 at home, so this game being in Dallas isn’t exactly a plus.
10 – San Francisco vs. Seattle
This is an important matchup between two teams that are separated by one game in the NFC West standings. The 49ers are getting healthy at the right time, with Christian McCaffrey making his return in a win last week over the Buccaneers. He didn’t look that rusty, finishing with 107 total yards. A healthy 49ers team is tough to beat at home.
Woke up thinking about this dime from Brock Purdy to Christian McCaffrey pic.twitter.com/FDwZ2xWvYK
— Chase Senior (@Chase_Senior) November 11, 2024
9 – Los Angeles Rams at New England
The Rams are the better team here and have more firepower on offense. However, this game being on the road for them does make me pause a bit before taking them to win. The Rams are 3-2 at home, but just 1-3 on the road. The Patriots are also 2-1 over their last three games. Still, the Rams offense should be able to carry them to victory.
8 – Green Bay at Chicago
On the surface, the Packers should be the obvious pick for this game. They are 6-3, which includes a 3-1 mark on the road. Their offense has been thriving with Jordan Love at the helm, while the Bears just fired their offensive coordinator. I still like the Packers to win, but the Bears being 4-1 at home is a little scary.
NFL Pick'em Toss-Ups Of Week 11
7 – New York Jets vs. Indianapolis
The Colts are making a change at quarterback again, replacing Joe Flacco with Anthony Richardson. Richardson can wreck a game with his rushing ability, but he is also completing just 44.4% of his pass attempts. The Colts are just 1-4 on the road, so as inconsistent as the Jets have been, they enter this game with a slight advantage.
6 – Denver vs. Atlanta
The Falcons are coming off a horrible loss to the Saints last week. They are 2-2 in their last four games. In the two wins, they scored at least 27 points in both games. They failed to score more than 17 points in both of the losses. Their offense could be in trouble against the Broncos, who have allowed just 17.7 points per game.
5 – Philadelphia vs. Washington
A divisional matchup on a short week is a recipe for chaos. The Commanders are 7-3 but have lost their lead in the NFC East, with the Eagles using a five-game winning streak to improve to 7-2. This game could go either way, but when in doubt, lean toward the home team for Thursday Night Football. The Commanders are also just 1-2 against teams with a winning record.
Hurts to be a defense playing against Jalen 😏 pic.twitter.com/pBEheKf8Aq
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) November 11, 2024
4 – Cleveland at New Orleans
This game isn’t exactly exciting with the Browns and Saints combining for a 5-14 record. As positive as it was for the Saints to win last week, they are still missing Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee) at wide receiver. The Browns have had an extra week to prepare and are fresh coming out of their bye, so let’s give a slight lean toward them winning this game on the road.
3 – Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cincinnati
The Chargers have allowed the fewest points per game in the league, while the Bengals have averaged the sixth-most points scored per game. Which side will give? The Chargers are 3-1 at home, but the Bengals are a respectable 3-2 on the road. The Bengals have allowed an average of 26.2 points per game, so if their offense can’t solve the Chargers defense, they could be fighting an uphill battle to win.
2 – Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore
This would be the top matchup to watch most weeks. The Steelers are 7-2 at the top of the AFC North, while the Ravens are right behind them at 7-3. The Steelers have allowed just 16.2 points per game, but the Ravens have scored 31.8 points per game. I don’t feel great about this either way, so I’d prefer to avoid picking it. However, I’ll lean toward the Steelers as the underdog at home, which is a role that they love.
1 – Kansas City at Buffalo
This is the top matchup of the week, with the undefeated Chiefs facing a Bills team that is 8-2, including 4-0 at home. It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Chiefs have found a way to continue to pull out wins. The Bills have some injury concerns with Keon Coleman (wrist) out and both Amari Cooper (wrist) and Dalton Kincaid (knee) battling ailments. It’s tough to pick against the Chiefs right now.
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