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Parity is alive and real in the league this season. Twelve games were within one score in the fourth quarter in Week 8 and we saw what may be the upset of the season with the Broncos shutting down Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Week 9 is chalked full of close spreads.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. Injury question marks for Sunday and Monday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.
Week 9 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
14 - Cleveland vs. Arizona
Typically, there's a handful of games listed under the locks section. For Week 9, there's a plethora of competitive games. Therefore, Cleveland gets the honor of being the sole lock on the slate.
Whether it's P.J. Walker or someone else running the offense, the Browns' quarterback simply needs to be a game manager and allow the defense to do their thing. Kyler Murray could return but signs are pointing toward rookie Clayton Tune getting the nod. I don't know about you, but I'd hate to look across the line of scrimmage and see Myles Garrett in my first career start at quarterback.
Wait And See Pick For Week 9
13 - Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay
The Green Bay Packers don't statistically have the worst offense in football but they may have the worst first-half offense in the league. Having to play catch-up in every single game boosts the overall passing numbers for Jordan Love. But the first-year starter at quarterback can't lead a touchdown drive in the opening 30 minutes.
The Rams got shellacked by the Cowboys in Dallas and somehow still looked infinitely better than Green Bay. Can the offense be productive without Matthew Stafford? The team is considering placing Stafford on injured reserve with a UCL sprain in his right thumb. Right now, he's day-to-day. Regardless, they'll be able to hold an inept offense out of the end zone.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 9 Pick 'Em Pools
12 - New York Giants at Las Vegas
Only in New York can you have negative passing yardage, one completion to a wide receiver, punt the ball 13 times, and still be one coaching decision (or a made field goal) away from winning the game.
The Giants won't be as allergic to passing come Week 9. Starting quarterback Daniel Jones is expected to return from his neck injury. However, he may be without his top receiving option, tight end Darren Waller, who exited the Battle of New York with a hamstring injury.
Still, the Las Vegas Raiders seem worse. The defense tried their best to keep them in the game on Monday Night Football but the offense is just a complete failure. Davante Adams, with just one catch, is showing his frustration. The team's three wins have come against teams that are a combined 7-16 and Josh McDaniels is now out of a job.
11 - Atlanta vs. Minnesota
The Kirk Cousins era in Minnesota may have come to an unfortunate end. The Vikings' captain suffered an Achilles injury and won't play again this season. He'll be a free agent in the offseason and Minnesota will likely opt for a new direction at the position.
As for the immediate future, the Vikings will now be down their two most important players: Cousins and Justin Jefferson. Reports out of Green Bay said that the Vikings' locker room was eerily quiet after their win over the Packers. The morale isn't great.
Atlanta dropped a game at Tennessee in Week 8 but made a change at quarterback at halftime. Veteran Taylor Heinicke led a more productive Falcons' offense and threw for 100 more yards than Desmond Ridder in the same amount of playing time. If he's the starter for Week 9, the offense gets a boost. It's clear that Ridder is not the future.
10 - Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee
The Pittsburgh Steelers are one of those teams that just stick around, even when all the stats in the game tell us that it should be a blowout. The offense went three-and-out on their first four drives of the game against Jacksonville. They botched the next touchdown drive (see below), settled for a field goal, missed their next attempt, and then punted two more times. Yet, they were within one score for the majority of the fourth quarter.
Kenny Pickett suffered a rib injury during the game and was replaced by Mitch Trubisky but he says he will play on Thursday Night.
Speaking of backup quarterbacks, rookie Will Levis surprised the entire NFL world when he tossed four long touchdowns in his debut. Picking up the victory may have kept the Titans from holding a firesale at the trade deadline. Don't let it fool you. This is still a below-average football team that hasn't won a road game yet.
9 - New Orleans vs. Chicago
Derek Carr is starting to do a great job of setting up the real star of the Saints' offense: Taysom Hill. The all-purpose, positionless maestro led New Orleans in rushing, scored two touchdowns, completed a pass for 44 yards, and added one catch to boot. With Hill and Alvin Kamara running the show, New Orleans has scored at least 24 points in three out of the last four games.
With all the weapons on the offense (I haven't even mentioned Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, or Rashid Shaheed yet), they should be able to score on a soft Chicago defense. The Bears just allowed Justin Herbert to pick them apart on Sunday Night Football.
8 - Baltimore vs. Seattle
The Battle of the Birds boasts a pair of two-loss teams.
Lamar Jackson wasn't slinging the football as he did in Week 7 against Detroit. Instead, the Ravens leaned on Gus Edwards and their running game en route to 31 points. Great teams can beat you in a number of different ways. The final score (31-24) doesn't tell the entire story. The Ravens were dominant for the majority of the game and let Arizona score 17 points in the final 6:30 of the fourth quarter.
The Seahawks weren't as dominant in their win over Cleveland at home. In fact, they needed a game-winning touchdown with under a minute left to secure the victory (but they looked great doing it with the throwback uniforms).
Seattle will have to travel across the country for an early window kickoff. With the offense humming and a defensive unit ranked near the top in most metrics, the Ravens win at home.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 9
7 - Indianapolis at Carolina
The Carolina Panthers are no longer the only winless squad in the league. They put together a great game plan following their bye week and defeated the Houston Texans at home (more on that below). Still, it wasn't an overly impressive victory by any means.
The Colts have a run defense problem. In the two games since defensive tackle Grover Stewart picked up a six-game suspension, both the Browns and Saints rushed for over 150 yards. The Panthers are a below-average running team so it shouldn't be too big of a detriment to Indianapolis.
The Colts haven't won a game with Gardner Minshew as the starter (even though I've picked them several times in that stretch). They've still been very competitive and this is the week they finally get a win.
6 - Houston vs. Tampa Bay
The Houston Texans that we saw before the bye week are the real Houston Texans. That was not the team that went into Carolina and allowed the Panthers to secure their first victory.
Houston was called for ten penalties for 70 yards. C.J. Stroud threw for just 140 yards and the running game was, still, unable to get off the ground. The Texans continued to try and establish the run, given the Panthers' proclivity to give up chunk yardage. Giving up on that aspect and letting Stroud cook may have allowed them to escape with a win.
The same strategy will need to be used against Tampa Bay. Nico Collins and Tank Dell can beat cornerbacks with relative ease. Letting the rookie quarterback take control of the offense, at home, will prove to be a winning recipe.
5 - Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets
Justin Herbert can dissect bad defenses. Against Miami, Tennessee, Minnesota, and Chicago, he's looked like a top quarterback in the NFL. Against Kansas City and Dallas? Not so much.
The good news is that Austin Ekeler looked like the Ekeler of old for the first time since his ankle injury. The 28-year-old showed some burst on his receptions en route to seven catches for 94 yards and a touchdown.
The Jets are beatable through receptions out of the backfield. They allow an average of 6.4 catches for 46 yards just to running backs. If Herbert is unable to get the football past Sauce Gardner into the hands of Keenan Allen, Ekeler and the tight ends can do enough to squeak by the Jets.
4 - Philadelphia vs. Dallas
The Philadelphia Eagles' upcoming schedule is BRUTAL. Taking care of a division rival, especially one nipping at their heels in the standings, is a must.
It's a blessing for the Cowboys that Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb woke up from their early season hibernation because the running game is withering away and the Eagles won't give up an inch in that department. The defense is only allowing 65 rushing yards per game.
Can the "Texas Coast Offense" succeed on the East Coast? Probably, as the Eagles did allow the Commanders to score 31 points in two different games this season. But, outside of their matchup against the Jets, Philadelphia is doing just enough to escape with wins.
This is likely a situation where the home team wins in the two matchups this season. Siri, remind me that I wrote this and to pick the Cowboys in Week 14.
3 - Cincinnati vs. Buffalo
The Bengals are back.
Joe Burrow's calf is healthy, as evidenced by several long runs in their impressive win over the 49ers in the Bay Area. The Cincinnati offense routinely marched down the field against a now-struggling San Francisco defense. At one point during the game, Burrow completed 19 passes in a row. Joe Mixon topped five yards per carry for the first time this season.
Buffalo also bounced back from a trio of disappointing performances in Week 8. However, Josh Allen still has a turnover problem. He's thrown eight interceptions so far. Ten picks for Cincinnati ranks third in the league.
This will be an incredibly emotional game for both teams. Damar Hamlin's cardiac arrest happened on this same field in this same matchup last season.
2 - Kansas City vs. Miami (in Germany)
It was, in fact, a trap. The Kansas City Chiefs, previously winners of six straight games, traveled to Denver and got beat up, chewed up, and spit out. Is Patrick Mahomes' bout with the flu to blame? Is the loss of linebackers Nick Bolton and Willie Gay Jr. the problem? Or were they simply already looking ahead to the high-profile matchup against the Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany?
The Dolphins didn't let the allure of the international duel get to them. Another ho-hum 300+ passing yards and three touchdowns from Tua Tagovailoa led Miami past division foe New England.
As good as Miami has looked (particularly on offense), they've beaten up on average to bad teams. Their six wins have come against teams with a combined record of 13-33 (including New England twice). When faced with real competition, i.e. Buffalo and Philadelphia, they've wilted. Kansas City falls into that category.
1 - Washington at New England
If the Commanders' offensive line holds up as they did against Philadelphia, Sam Howell can lead a successful offense. That hadn't been the case through the first seven weeks, as he was sacked 40 times.
That happened against arguably the best defensive line in the NFL. But there's no consistency as to whether Howell will have a good or a bad game. He's played well against Philadelphia twice but looked dreadful against the Giants and Bills.
The Patriots continue to look pathetic on the offensive side and they just lost their best wideout, Kendrick Bourne, to a torn ACL. It's now up to rookie Demario Douglas (who has shown some juice), Jalen Reagor, and JuJu Smith-Schuster (who has shown no juice) to get open. Even though the Commanders' clear weak spot is their secondary, these receivers may not be good enough to beat soft coverage.
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