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Two undefeated teams (and one winless team) remain as Week 6 of the NFL season begins. It's not always that clear-cut, however. Some one-loss teams have looked shaky. A few teams with two losses or more are presumably better than their record shows. And, somehow, the Steelers are atop the AFC North.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. Injury question marks for Sunday and Monday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.
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Week 6 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 15 - Miami vs. Carolina
- 14 - Kansas City vs. Denver
- 13 - Buffalo vs. New York Giants
These three games open as the only double-digit spreads on the Week 6 slate. Miami is statistically the best offense we've seen since "The Greatest Show on Turf". The Dolphins' 2,568 total yards is one yard more than the 2000 St. Louis Rams tallied through five games. That's an NFL record at this point in the season. The Panthers, with rookie quarterback Bryce">Bryce+Young" data-id="23132">Bryce Young, are still searching for their first win.
Although it hasn't been in typical Chiefs fashion (a.k.a. impressive), Kansas City is still sitting at 4-1 on the season. They'll face AFC West adversary Denver on Thursday Night Football. The Broncos, who are 1-4, could be the second-worst team in football right now. The Buffalo Bills lost more significant pieces of their defense (linebacker Matt Milano suffered a fractured leg) but won't have a problem shutting down the Giants. New York quarterbacks have been sacked 30 times through five games.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 6 Pick 'Em Pools
12 - San Francisco at Cleveland
The 49ers and Eagles are the two remaining undefeated teams in the league. While Philadelphia has had some close calls through the first five weeks, San Francisco is routinely blowing out teams, including Dallas on Sunday Night Football. Everyone knows how stingy their defense can be but quarterback Brock Purdy is dicing up opposing defenses with efficiency.
| Game | Brock Purdy Completion Percentage |
| At Pittsburgh | 65.52% |
| At Los Angeles Rams | 68.00% |
| Vs. New York Giants | 67.57% |
| Vs. Arizona | 95.24% |
| Vs. Dallas | 70.83% |
Cleveland is coming off a bye and has extra time to prepare for the 49ers but will be without their starting quarterback Deshaun Watson. Right now, it's hard to envision San Francisco losing at any point this season. If they stay healthy, the only game on their schedule where they may be the underdog is when they travel to Philadelphia in Week 13.
11 - Philadelphia at New York Jets
Speaking of the Eagles, they dispatched the Los Angeles Rams on the West Coast 23-14. Now, Jalen Hurts and Co. travel northeast to meet Zach Wilson and the New York Jets. Although the Jets went to Denver and defeated the Broncos, Wilson didn't take advantage of matching up against the league's worst defense. Instead, running back Breece Hall ran rampant.
If the Denver run defense is wimpy, wimpy, wimpy, the Eagles are hefty, hefty, hefty. Philadelphia's beefy boys allow the least amount of rushing yards per game. If the Jets have to rely on Wilson again to push the ball down the field, it could be a long afternoon for New York.
10 - Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona
"They are who we thought they were!" - Dennis Green, 2006
The Arizona Cardinals finally showed us who we thought they were all along. They're a team with poor quarterback play that lacks top-end talent. Joshua Dobbs' three turnovers (two of which came in the fourth quarter) doomed any chance of a comeback but the writing was on the wall well before that. The defense had no answer for Ja'Marr Chase, similar to a week prior against Christian McCaffrey.
The Rams dropped a game to Philadelphia on Sunday but welcomed back Super Bowl LVI MVP Cooper Kupp. He, alongside rookie sensation Puka Nacua, forms one of the most formidable wide receiver duos in football.
Facing the Cardinals at home is the perfect remedy for a tough loss to the undefeated Eagles.
9 - Los Angeles Chargers vs. Dallas
Upset special of the week!
There's zero doubt that Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore wants to embarrass Dallas after being let go, despite leading the Cowboys to the fourth-highest scoring offense in 2022. It appears he'll have Austin Ekeler back from his extended absence. But will he have enough firepower to overpower the Dallas defense?
On paper, yes, the Chargers have the offensive weapons to score on anyone. They're averaging the seventh-most points per game (27.5). But they're also allowing the most passing yards per game on defense. Do you like points? You're going to get them on Sunday.
The Cowboys got humiliated by the 49ers on Sunday Night Football, which is turning into a one-sided rivalry. The injuries on the defensive side of the ball are starting to pile up. They lost cornerback Trevon Diggs (knee) a few weeks ago. Linebacker Leighton Vander Esch (neck) is likely to go on IR. Three secondary players (Donovan Wilson, Jourdan Lewis, and DaRon Bland) all left the game at various points in the second half with ailments.
It's hard not to read into just one game, otherwise, we'd be talking about Buffalo looking mediocre as well. The Cowboys' three wins, however, have come against the Giants, Jets, and Patriots. Wins like that don't prove anything in the long run.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 6
8 - Minnesota at Chicago
2022's cardiac kids have lost their mojo. All four of the Vikings' losses in 2023 have come by one score. Last season, Kirk Cousins led Minnesota to victory in 11 one-score games. That was the most in NFL history.
It's not that big of a surprise that their magic ran out. They're not a great team but they're better than their 1-4 record indicates. Chicago may not be better than their 1-4 record but Justin Fields has at least looked like a starting NFL quarterback for the second straight week.
It'll be interesting to see how the Vikings offense operates without Justin Jefferson (hamstring). They'll still have enough firepower to get past a leaky Chicago defense but if and when the game is on the line, like it was on Sunday against the Chiefs, the lack of a go-to guy proved to be fatal.
7 - Detroit at Tampa Bay
Are the Lions the third-best team in the NFC? It's definitely up for debate following San Francisco's beatdown of Dallas on Sunday Night Football.
Detroit sits at 4-1 (their only loss to Seattle at home in Week 2) and managed to score 42 points against Carolina without the services of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs. Their run defense is among the best in the league (one of three teams allowing under 70 yards per game) and coach Dan Campbell isn't intimidated by any team on his schedule.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, on the other hand, are one of the league's surprise teams. They're tied for the league lead in turnover differential (+7) and have an extra week of prep to find cracks in Jared Goff's game.
| Team | Turnover Differential |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +7 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +7 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +6 |
| Buffalo Bills | +6 |
Detroit is the better offensive unit, which gives them the edge, but this game is going to be sneaky fun.
6 - Baltimore at Tennessee (in London)
Oh, no. My Ryan Tannehill road/home theory is getting put to the ultimate test. The Titans are technically the home team but the game isn't being played in Nashville. For those who are new to the column, here are Tannehill's stats at home versus on the road.
| Ryan Tannehill Games | Passing | Yards | Touchdowns | Interceptions | Result |
| Week 1 (Away) | 16-34 | 198 | 0 | 3 | L, 15-16 |
| Week 2 (Home) | 20-24 | 246 | 1 | 0 | W, 27-24 |
| Week 3 (Away) | 13-25 | 104 | 0 | 0 | L, 3-27 |
| Week 4 (Home) | 18-25 | 240 | 1 | 1 | W, 27-3 |
| Week 5 (Away) | 23-34 | 264 | 0 | 1 | L, 16-23 |
The veteran out of Texas A&M had his best yardage game against Indianapolis in Week 5 but recorded zero touchdowns in another loss. Sixteen points, against a majority of the teams in the NFL, isn't going to be enough to win.
The Baltimore Ravens will come into London angry with themselves for blowing a late lead against division rival Pittsburgh. A blocked punt for a safety and two turnovers from Lamar Jackson (all in the fourth quarter) led to their demise.
"It just felt like, at times, there was just too many things going wrong. It’s almost like a sleeping giant, man. We need to wake up." - Mark Andrews
International games can be tough to predict, as we just saw from last week's matchup between Jacksonville and Buffalo. Most everyone outside of Florida would agree that Buffalo is the better football team, or at least they have been so far this season. But the Jaguars had an extra week in the United Kingdom, got acclimated, and took early advantage of the sluggishness of the Bills.
5 - New Orleans at Houston
The Texans, fresh off a last-second loss to the Atlanta Falcons, are home underdogs against New Orleans in Week 6.
Derek Carr looked better with an extra week to recover from his shoulder injury but he didn't have to throw often to beat New England. The Saints ran 42 times in comparison to Carr's 28 dropbacks. Dominating what may be the NFL's worst offense (tough call between the Patriots and the Giants) en route to a victory doesn't move the needle for me. This is the same team that blew a late lead to Green Bay and looked lost at home against Tampa Bay.
However, there are some concerning stats about Houston that give me pause. C.J. Stroud has looked fantastic. He's broken the record for most passing attempts without an interception to start a career but he has run into problems when finishing drives. It's not uncommon for a rookie to struggle to find the endzone while operating in the red zone.
| Rookie Quarterback | Red Zone Completion Percentage | Touchdowns / Interceptions |
| C.J. Stroud | 46.47% | 4 / 0 |
| Bryce Young | 38.89% | 5 / 0 |
| Kenny Pickett (2022) | 39.13% | 5 / 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence (2021) | 48.21% | 7 / 2 |
Houston settled for four field goals on Sunday against Atlanta. The Saints are allowing the fourth-fewest points per game. If Stroud can't find the end zone often on Sunday, New Orleans will win this game.
4 - Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis
Week 6 brings our first rematch of the season (does this seem really early to anyone else?). The Jaguars, in what is probably their best offensive performance to date, went into Indianapolis and defeated the Colts 31-21 in Week 1.
As soon as Jacksonville appeared to be a letdown of a team in 2023, they ran the Bills out of their second home in London. With all that talent on offense, they struggled to score against Kansas City, Houston, and even Atlanta in a win. Meanwhile, Indianapolis is winning games on the backs of Zack Moss and Gardner Minshew.
This is a tough call (I really like what the Colts are doing) but the Jaguars are the home team and already beat the Colts once, so that's the safer bet.
3 - Cincinnati vs. Seattle
For the first time this season, we can officially say: THE CINCINNATI OFFENSE LIVES!
Ja'Marr Chase said he was always open following Week 4. Joe Burrow, possibly shaking off that nagging calf injury, agreed with Chase to the tune of 15 catches for 192 yards and three touchdowns. Chase walked the walk, then talked the talk on X.
The Seahawks' secondary, now healthier with the returns of cornerback Tariq Woolen and safety Jamal Adams, hope to rectify their early season blunders. That unit is allowing more passing yards per game than the Cardinals, Cincinnati's Week 5 opponent. We'll see if the Bengals can replicate their offensive outburst.
2 - Atlanta vs. Washington
The Washington Commanders are abysmal against covering wide receivers. First-round rookie Emmanuel Forbes Jr. was shown the bench in Week 5 following a series of long completions to D.J. Moore. The secondary has now allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts.
Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder, just like Forbes, typically also can't locate receivers. The Falcons are statistically the tenth-worst passing team in the NFL. But when push came to shove, the second-year signal caller led the Falcons right down the field to allow Younghoe Koo to kick a game-winning field goal over Houston. Ridder finished the game with a career-high 329 yards. Atlanta ends up being the home team favorite in this one.
1 - Las Vegas vs. New England
New England quarterback Mac Jones has been benched in two straight games due to poor play and game scripts. Due to his turnovers and lack of support in the run game, the Patriots have scored a combined three points in the last two games. Dallas and New Orleans both have top-tier defenses but three points is still embarrassingly bad. Yet, there aren't any changes being made. Jones will remain the starter. Bill O'Brien is still the offensive coordinator. And Rhamondre Stevenson will struggle to run for three yards per carry.
The Raiders won Monday night thanks to a trio of turnovers by Packers quarterback Jordan Love. While it was a night to forget for Green Bay's lead man, are we sure that Mac Jones will perform any better? The protégé Josh McDaniels will defeat his former boss Bill Belichick.
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