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Week 3 was once again filled with upsets. Maybe the most notable one was the Panthers knocking off the Raiders after switching to Andy Dalton as their starting quarterback. Let’s now turn our attention to what matchups await us in Week 4.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game and rank their selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks, you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of "Thursday Night Football." There may still be some injury questions for Sunday and Monday games. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player is in or out. Let’s get to our Week 4 picks.
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Week 4 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 16 – Pittsburgh at Indianapolis
- 15 – New York Jets vs. Denver
- 14 – San Francisco vs. New England
- 13 – Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers
The Steelers are one of five remaining undefeated teams. Their defense has led the way, allowing a total of just 26 points. Anthony Richardson has completed only 49.3% of his passes and has been intercepted six times. Look for the Steelers defense to lead them to a road victory.
Coming off a road upset over the Buccaneers, things won’t get any easier for the Broncos when they remain on the road against the Jets. The Jets will be on added rest, given that they played on "Thursday Night Football" last week. The Jets have more weapons on offense and one of the best pass defenses in the league, so don’t look for the Broncos to be able to win as underdogs again.
Coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Rams, the 49ers have been besieged by injuries. They will remain short-handed against the Patriots, but the Patriots have scored a total of 39 points over three games. Jacoby Brissett is a game manager who is keeping the seat warm for Drake Maye. The 49ers defense can lead them to victory here.
The Chargers want to run the ball early and often. Their conservative offensive approach has them off to a 2-1 start, but can they score enough to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? Don’t count on it, especially if Justin Herbert (ankle) can’t play. The Chiefs have scored 75 points on their way to a 3-0 record.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 4 Pick'em Pools
12 –Dallas at New York Giants
Both the Cowboys and Giants are 1-2. The Cowboys haven’t had problems scoring, but they have given up 89 points. This is a favorable bounce-back spot for their defense, given that the Giants have averaged just 15.0 points per game. The Giants have not defeated the Cowboys since Week 17 of the 2020 season.
11 – Arizona vs. Washington
This is a tough spot for the Commanders, who will be on the road in a short week. Their defense is struggling to defend the pass again, allowing the second-most passing yards per game in the league. That could be a recipe for disaster against the duo of Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr..
MARVIN HARRISON JR.'S FIRST NFL TOUCHDOWN HAS ARRIVED pic.twitter.com/EFquDWaM8V
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) September 15, 2024
10 – Cincinnati at Carolina
The Panthers came alive with Dalton under center, scoring 36 points against the Raiders. They should be a more competitive team moving forward because they do have some weapons on offense. However, after their Week 1 letdown against the Patriots, expect the Bengals to come out focused and take care of business against an inferior foe.
9 – Detroit vs. Seattle
The schedule has worked in favor of the Seahawks on their way to a 3-0 record. They began the season by beating two teams with bad quarterbacks, the Broncos and the Patriots. Then, they faced Skylar Thompson in Week 3, earning a win over the Dolphins. Facing Jared Goff and the Lions in Detroit is a far more difficult task.
8 – Houston vs. Jacksonville
The Texans were 6-3 at home last season and won their lone home game so far this year. Their offense couldn’t get anything going on the road against the Vikings last week, but with C.J. Stroud at the helm, don’t expect them to go into a prolonged funk. The Jaguars have also allowed the third-most passing yards per game in the league.
NFL Pick'em Toss-Ups Of Week 4
7 – Tennessee at Miami
This has the makings of a matchup between two bad quarterbacks. Will Levis has four touchdown passes and five interceptions through three games. Still, he’s a better option than Thompson, who threw for just 107 yards before exiting with a rib injury against the Seahawks. If Thompson doesn’t start, Tim Boyle and Tyler Huntley don’t exactly provide a significant upgrade.
6 – Baltimore vs. Buffalo
This should be one of the better matchups of the week. As fun as it will be to watch, picking the winner is more difficult. Both have potent offenses with mobile quarterbacks. I’ll give a slight edge to the Ravens because they will be at home and the Bills will be on a short week after playing Monday.
With his performance tonight, Josh Allen became the first player with 200+ passing yards and 4+ passing TDs in a first half since Josh accomplished the same feat in 2022 (vs. Pittsburgh - 10/9). pic.twitter.com/TfuoTVUIEl
— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) September 24, 2024
5 – Atlanta vs. New Orleans
Even though they lost to the Eagles in Week 3, the Saints have still been one of the more pleasant surprises in the league. The Falcons are just 1-2 but have had a brutal schedule by facing the Steelers, Eagles, and Chiefs. This is a stay-away for me, but when in doubt, lean toward the home team.
4 – Los Angeles Rams at Chicago
Caleb Williams finally recorded his first passing touchdown in Week 3, finishing with 363 passing yards and two touchdowns against the Colts. However, he was picked off twice, giving him four interceptions over the last two games. As beat up as the Rams are at wide receiver, they have significant advantages in this game at quarterback, running back, and head coach. That could propel them to victory.
3 – Green Bay vs. Minnesota
Jordan Love (knee) was more active at practice last week but was still held out against the Titans. The Packers may have done that to have him healthier for this important divisional game. As good as the Vikings have been behind Sam Darnold, the Packers being at home and potentially having Love back still gives them an advantage. However, the Packers can’t afford for Love to be limited.
2 – Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
It’s tough to gauge either of these teams right now. The Eagles have been sloppy on offense and have missed A.J. Brown (hamstring). The Buccaneers were cooking after two games but came crashing back to reality against the Broncos last week. The winner of this game could come down to whether or not Brown and DeVonta Smith (concussion) play for the Eagles.
1 – Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cleveland
Not much to be excited about here. Deshaun Watson has completed just 57.8% of his passes and is averaging 4.8 yards per target. Aidan O'Connell played well in garbage time against the Panthers, but Gardner Minshew II should start again for the Raiders. This could come down to which quarterback makes the fewest mistakes.
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