RADIO
The NFL playoff picture is becoming more clear and messy at the same time. There are several teams bunched up in both conferences, vying for final the Wild Card spots (or even division titles in some cases). But with every passing week, more teams get eliminated, leaving them with little to play for.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. Injury question marks for Sunday and Monday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.
Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code WINNING. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
Week 16 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 16 - Philadelphia vs. New York Giants
- 15 - Buffalo at Los Angeles Chargers
- 14 - Denver vs. New England
- 13 - Kansas City vs. Las Vegas
- 12 - Green Bay at Carolina
Is there a bigger divisional contrast than the top and bottom of the NFC East? The Eagles and Cowboys are Super Bowl contenders, while the Giants and Commanders are several games under .500. It creates easy picks (and wins) for Philly and Dallas. Buffalo has unlocked their offense and looks like a Super Bowl contender themselves.
Denver and Kansas City both have issues to figure out. The Broncos' defense is still a weakness but a matchup against New England can quell their woes. Kansas City is still struggling on offense with an inexperienced receiving corps. It may not be something they solve this season, but winning at home against an average Las Vegas roster is an easy task.
Green Bay burned me last week when I listed them in this section. Tampa Bay is a far superior opponent to Carolina, so I'm going right back to the Packers winning on the road to keep their (now slim) playoff hopes alive.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 16 Pick 'Em Pools
11 - Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans
Remember when Matthew Stafford injured his hand, Cooper Kupp was laboring, Kyren Williams was on injured reserve, and it seemed like the Rams were destined for another lost season? Los Angeles now controls their playoff destiny.
It starts with a tilt on Thursday Night Football against the team nipping at their heels. New Orleans can navigate their way to an NFC South title with a loss, but this will have all the feels of a playoff game.
The Rams have won four of their last five (and the lone loss was in overtime to the AFC-leading Baltimore Ravens). Everything about this team is working and the same can't be said for New Orleans. Taking care of the teams you're supposed to beat (Panthers, Giants) is a nice start, but they only have one win over a team with a winning record. Derek Carr remains wildly inconsistent. On a short week, he may again be without his top wide receiver, Chris Olave.
10 - Detroit at Minnesota
One game doesn't fix everything, but a dominant win over a respectable Denver team is good a start for the Detroit Lions.
Jared Goff is an entirely different quarterback both at home, and when his offensive line is completely healthy. When the five-man unit up front is all there, Goff and the Lions' offense is dominant. That was the case Sunday when center Frank Ragnow returned from an injury.
Minnesota, on the other hand, is still trying to figure out their offense. Nick Mullens is a backup quarterback in the NFL and played exactly like one in Week 15. Joshua Dobbs wasn't the answer. Rookie fifth-round Jaren Hall probably isn't either. The Lions will continue to shut down the run, putting more of the onus on Mullens on Sunday.
9 - Seattle at Tennessee
Against all odds, with a backup quarterback, the Seahawks found a way to take down one of the top teams in the NFC. That's what Seattle has done for the majority of the Pete Carroll era. A strong running game, clutch defensive plays, and a sprinkle of late-game magic lead to wins.
Now tied with Minnesota and Los Angeles (by record, at least) for the final Wild Card spots, Seattle will need to continue winning. The next test is against a Tennessee team in the midst of a down season, who may have to start veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill on Sunday. Rookie signal-caller Will Levis has an ankle injury, putting his status in doubt.
Tannehill and the rest of the Titans' offense plays much better in Nashville than they do on the road. But they have very little to play for at this point, and Derrick Henry appears to be losing a step.
8 - Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Both of these AFC North teams are depending on backup quarterbacks. It's working out for one. The other, not so much.
Pittsburgh's magic has run out. They managed to stumble their way to a winning record, despite being outgained on offense for nearly every game this season. They've slipped back down to the .500 mark after three straight losses (the last two with Mitch Trubisky under center) and are quickly fading out of the playoff picture. They're now resorting to Mason Rudolph to save their season.
Their rival, the Cincinnati Bengals, have reinvented themselves with Jake Browning as their starting quarterback and would be a part of Wild Card weekend if the playoffs began today. They're leaning on Joe Mixon and their running game, even getting contributions from rookie Chase Brown, and alleviating some pressure on the inexperienced signal caller. That's allowing him to make some big plays when needed. I like the Bengals to continue their push toward the playoffs, securing a win in a hostile environment.
7 - Chicago vs. Arizona
The Bears blew a winnable game in a way that only the Bears can do. Taking a 17-7 lead into the fourth quarter, the offense got conservative, the defense allowed Joe Flacco to string together big throws, and they lost the lead late. Even after all of that, a Hail Mary, seemingly perfectly executed, fell off the hands, chest, and feet of Darnell Mooney before being intercepted.
The point is, however, they're competing with good to great teams after a horrendous start to the campaign. They've won three out of their last five and had fourth-quarter leads, by multiple scores, in the two losses.
Arizona is not nearly as competitive. They're 2-3 with Kyler Murray playing quarterback, but the two wins came against Atlanta and Pittsburgh. They've been blown out by the Rams and the 49ers. If the Bears establish a run-heavy approach against a terrible Arizona defense in late-December Chicago weather, the Cardinals are going to be longing for a return to the desert.
6 - Indianapolis at Atlanta
Atlanta just bungled their way into possibly the worst loss for any team this season. A road defeat to the Carolina Panthers, owners of the league's worst record, pushed the Falcons to 6-8 and a game back of the NFC South lead.
Every time the Falcons are doubted, they come back and win a game. That's why this game is listed here and not higher. With two road games following this home finale, it's do-or-die time for Atlanta. So much so, that Arthur Smith is debating whether to trot Desmond Ridder back out there or try his luck with Taylor Heinicke again.
With Houston and Buffalo sitting at the same 8-6 record, the Colts need this one just as badly as Atlanta. They're clinging to that final Wild Card spot as the teams behind them also pick up victories. Hopefully, they'll have their offensive weapons back (Jonathan Taylor, Zack Moss, and Michael Pittman Jr.).
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 16
5 - San Francisco vs. Baltimore
It appears that these two are the teams to beat in their respective conferences. Fittingly, their records reflect that. With Dak Prescott blowing his shot at MVP thanks to the embarrassing loss in Buffalo, Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson are the new leading candidates. Both teams are going to try and prop up the candidacy for their respective signal callers.
With six straight wins under their belt, it's nearly impossible to pick against the 49ers right now. They aren't just beating teams. Their smallest margin of victory in this win streak is 12 points. It's blowout after blowout. There are too many weapons to slow down the offense and the defense is rightfully mentioned among the league's best.
The Ravens have had their fair share of blowouts, winning eight of the last nine games. They were one long bomb away from shutting out the Jaguars on Sunday Night Football. They just aren't winning with the same style points as the team from the Bay Area. San Franciso, also, has only dropped one game at home this season.
4 - New York Jets vs. Washington
If the coaches of New York and Washington had their way, we'd be seeing the super exciting quarterback matchup of Zach Wilson vs. Sam Howell. The former was injured in Week 15 and the latter was benched in a blowout loss.
According to reports, Howell will get his job back (although Jacoby Brissett looked markedly better in limited action) but Wilson remains a question mark for Sunday. Veteran Trevor Siemian is next in line on the Jets' quarterback carousel.
There isn't much more to say about this game. Both of these teams are failing miserably this season. The Washington defense can't stop anyone. The New York offense can't score points. The Jets have enough offensive talent (Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson) to best the Commanders' defense if the quarterback can get them the ball.
3 - Cleveland at Houston
Joe Flacco, the savior!
The 38-year-old tossed three interceptions and fell into a double-digit, fourth-quarter hole before exploding for 374 passing yards and two touchdowns to lead the comeback win. That's not something that Dorian Thompson-Robinson or P.J. Walker would have accomplished. It's the exact reason why the Browns signed the Super Bowl XLVII MVP off the couch.
Another 30-something veteran quarterback led their team to a comeback victory. That, of course, being Houston's Case Keenum. Contrary to Flacco, Keenum let Devin Singletary do most of the work while completing key conversions along the way.
Flacco will start again for Cleveland, and it appears that Stroud (concussion) won't be ready to play on Sunday. Expect a playoff atmosphere in Houston, but the quarterback advantage gives the away team the edge.
2 - Tampa Bay at Jacksonville
The Baker Mayfield resurgence tour is smoking hot.
The former first-round pick flamed out in Carolina, had one moment in Los Angeles before sputtering out, and then battled (maybe not so closely) with Kyle Trask to be the QB1 in Tampa Bay. Now, he's got the Buccaneers sitting atop the NFC South with three straight wins.
The Jaguars, led by another former first-round pick, are trending in the other direction. Just a few weeks ago, they controlled their destiny for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. They've since lost three straight (all to AFC North teams) and are tied with division mates Indianapolis and Houston. Adding injury to insult, Trevor Lawrence is once again a question mark, this time with a concussion.
Regardless of whether he's able to suit up or not, the receiving corps will be down Christian Kirk and possibly Zay Jones as well. That's where the Tampa defense is beatable. Speaking of defense, the Jaguars' unit has struggled to slow anyone down in recent weeks. Mayfield may continue to roll.
1 - Dallas at Miami
No team is perfect (well, expect one). That's a lesson learned time and time again when Super Bowl contenders misstep and get blown out.
That puts two big narratives at play. The Miami Dolphins haven't beaten any team with a winning record and the Dallas Cowboys can't win big games on the road. Something has to give (or they can mess around and end in a tie. We haven't had one of those yet this season).
There's no sugarcoating the Cowboys' effort in Buffalo. James Cook cooked the run defense, to the point where Josh Allen only had to attempt 15 passes. Dak Prescott let his MVP odds slip away in the rain. Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle found no running room.
To be fair, there's a big difference between playing in Philadelphia, Buffalo, or San Francisco and taking the field in Miami. Give me Dallas as road underdogs in a bounce-back effort.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
