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Team Chaos is having an amazing season. Not only was the Buffalo win over Kansas City chaotic in its own right, but it also allowed Buffalo to remain in the AFC playoff race, which itself is chaotic. Six teams have a 7-6 record. Cleveland, Kansas City, and Jacksonville are only one game ahead and there are not enough playoff spots to go around. Get ready for a wild ending to the regular season.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. Injury question marks for Sunday and Monday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.
Week 15 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 16 - San Francisco at Arizona
- 15 - Miami vs. New York Jets
- 14 - Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington
- 13 - Atlanta at Carolina
- 12 - Kansas City at New England
- 11 - Philadelphia at Seattle
- 10 - Green Bay vs. Tampa Bay
Ho-hum, another 300-yard passing effort from Brock Purdy. Mr. Irrelevant is cooking and building his case for MVP. The best team in the NFL gets a matchup with the hapless Arizona Cardinals in what should be an easy victory. It's a similar case for Miami, which gets a rematch against a team they dismantled just a few weeks ago on Black Friday.
The Rams and Falcons, both in the playoff picture in the NFC, draw two teams with little to play for. Washington and Carolina won't be making the postseason, the latter of which still only has one victory on the season. Atlanta needs to win the easy games to keep their hopes of an NFC South crown alive.
One of these days a missed call or a wide receiver blunder won't cost the Chiefs a win. A matchup against New England should be that day. Even with the inexperienced unit that is tanking Kansas City's chances at a repeat, the Chiefs are talented enough to defeat the three-win Patriots.
Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, and Cowboys. That's the previous five games for the Eagles. It's a welcome sight to finally see a team under .500. The Seahawks are one of the best, losing teams in the league and it's difficult to win in the Pacific Northwest, but the Eagles are way too talented to drop three straight.
A crushing loss for the playoff hopes of the Packers on Monday Night Football. Jordan Love turned the ball over twice and looked more like the version of Love we saw earlier in the season, not the one that led Green Bay to three straight wins over the Chargers, Lions, and Chiefs. In a huge game for both Bay teams, Love rebounds on his home turf.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 15 Pick 'Em Pools
9 - Baltimore at Jacksonville
If you look at the history of the John Harbaugh era in Baltimore, you know that the team often suffers bad losses. While a very respectable team, the Los Angeles Rams came out and punched one of the best defenses in the mouth, in the rain and on the road, repeatedly. And it seemed like they'd walk away with a win. But this Baltimore team may be built a little differently.
A punt return in overtime by reserve wide receiver Tylan Wallace lifted the Ravens to their 10th win and positioned themselves atop the AFC. With Miami still on their schedule, Baltimore controls their path toward earning a first-round bye.
That distinction belonged to their Week 15 opponent just a couple of games ago. Instead of cementing their status among the AFC's elite, the Jaguars crumbled against Cincinnati and Cleveland, two teams starting backup quarterbacks. A third-straight test against the AFC North, the best division in football, isn't the remedy the Jaguars are looking for.
Another week removed from an ankle sprain for Trevor Lawrence will help his recovery. While he moved well in their loss to Cleveland, turnovers were a major problem. It's tough to tell if that's the result of the ankle ailment or not, but the Ravens' defense will be ready to pounce if he's inaccurate once again.
8 - Cleveland vs. Chicago
Joe Flacco, the savior?
The soon-to-be 39-year-old, who was sitting on his couch just a few weeks ago, has thrown for over 500 yards and five touchdowns in his two starts. Flacco is a fun story, but he's also turned the ball over three times in that span. The defense made up for it on Sunday, forcing four turnovers en route to a victory over AFC South leader Jacksonville.
That's been the recipe for success for the Browns all season, no matter which of the four starting quarterbacks have been under center. The biggest difference is that, unlike P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Flacco can put up those 300-yard performances needed to push Cleveland over the top.
With a healthy Justin Fields, the Bears are riding their first winning streak of the campaign (and three wins out of the last four overall). The defense is forcing turnovers. It's a little mind-blowing given the state of their franchise just a few weeks ago, but the Bears appear to be a good squad.
Still, the Browns are at home and need to win to keep their playoff positioning intact. This one will be closer than it would have been just a few weeks ago.
7 - New Orleans vs. New York Giants
Picking the Saints to defeat Carolina is easy. Picking the Saints to beat any other team in the NFL is difficult.
Derek Carr will either do just enough to sneak past New York, or vomit all over himself again and turn the ball over. There's rarely an in-between. Two late, short passing touchdowns boosted his stat line, but he still only threw for 119 yards and turned the ball over once.
Tommy Devito is now 3-1 as a starter for the New York Giants. He utilizes his legs and takes what the defense gives him, everything coaches ask from an undrafted rookie quarterback. The Saints' secondary may give him fits, however, with no threat in the passing game on the active roster. The magic runs out when the Giants travel to New Orleans.
Wait And See For Week 15
6 - Houston at Tennessee
The entirety of this matchup hinges on the health of C.J. Stroud. While he won't be NFL MVP, the case can be made that he's the most valuable piece to any team in the league. The rookie quarterback is in the concussion protocol, putting his status in doubt for a divisional matchup on Sunday.
If Stroud is not available, Houston coming out victorious in Nashville will be extremely difficult. We know what Davis Mills is as a quarterback (it's not good) and the receiving unit is demolished by injuries. Nico Collins (calf), Tank Dell (IR, leg), and Dalton Schultz (hamstring) are all banged up. That left Brevin Jordan and Andrew Beck to lead the Texans in receiving against New York.
If Collins and Stroud are healthy, Houston can win and keep their playoff hopes alive. If not, the Titans' offense performs significantly better on their home field and the defense plays well enough to limit the depleted Houston offense.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 15
5 - Las Vegas vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I'm just over here twiddling my thumbs, waiting for that Adam Schefter post notification that Brandon Staley has been fired...
Yes, Justin Herbert has a fractured finger on his throwing hand which forced the star quarterback from the game in their loss to Denver. But the Chargers were already shut out and down double digits at halftime before the injury. The team with legitimate playoff aspirations is 5-8. Coincidentally, that's the same record as their Week 15 opponent, the Las Vegas Raiders, who nobody predicted to make the postseason.
It's odd to pick a team to win that was shut out the previous week, as the Raiders dropped a home game to Minnesota by the super exciting score of 3-0. Aidan O'Connell is not a franchise quarterback and the offense is suffering with the rookie under center. The defense, however, has been mostly solid since Antonio Pierce took over as interim coach. Outside of the loss to Kansas City, the Raiders are allowing 10.5 points per game in the Pierce era. Those games include Miami, both New York teams, and Minnesota.
This Thursday Night Football game suddenly appears as ugly (on paper) as the New England and Pittsburgh matchup a week ago.
4 - Cincinnati vs. Minnesota
The most improbable headline in the NFL offseason is coming to fruition: Jake Browning is resurrecting Cincinnati's chances to reach the postseason, cramped thumb and all.
For the second straight game, the replacement for Joe Burrow threw for 275+ yards and scored multiple times. Back-to-back wins over two AFC South teams currently in the playoff race (Jacksonville and Indianapolis) have placed the Bengals in that same group.
While Cincinnati has found their temporary answer at quarterback, Minnesota is still searching. Jaren Hall, Joshua Dobbs, and now Nick Mullens have all gotten a crack at filling in for the injured Kirk Cousins. The latter took over for an inefficient Dobbs midway through the fourth quarter and led the Vikings to their only scoring drive (albeit the winning one) on the evening.
The lack of a steady, reliable leader at quarterback and another injury to Justin Jefferson (chest) may spell trouble for the Vikings.
3 - Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh
The loser of this matchup will face tough sledding to reclaim a spot on Wild Card Weekend. Two seemingly winnable games in Week 14, versus Cincinnati and New England respectively, could turn into signature losses in the stories of Indianapolis and Pittsburgh's seasons.
Zack Moss appeared to be one of the more capable backup running backs in the league early in the season. Similar to Joshua Dobbs, he's reverted into a pumpkin. Averaging under 2.5 yards per carry in these last two games, the Colts have routinely fallen behind the sticks, which puts the onus onto Gardner Minshew even more. The quarterback is already prone to turnovers and forcing the ball is only going to result in more.
Speaking of pumpkins, Mitch Trubisky never avoided that label, and his time as a backup quarterback has not improved his skillset. Even against an Indianapolis defense that bleeds points, there's no confidence that Trubisky can lead this Pittsburgh offense on scoring drives.
2 - Dallas at Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills managed to keep their playoff aspirations alive in Kansas City but the gauntlet continues. At least their matchup against the Cowboys wraps up a three-game stretch against three Super Bowl contenders.
Even being a host for the first time in this span, Dallas may be the toughest of the trio to defeat. Fresh off of a dismantling of their division foe Philadelphia at home, the Cowboys are cementing their status among the NFL's elite. Dak Prescott is currently the betting favorite to win MVP. The offense and defense are firing on all cylinders. If Rashee Rice can rack up catches against the Buffalo secondary, how will they slow down CeeDee Lamb?
If Buffalo manages to move to 2-1 against the league's best, watch out. They'll be squarely in the playoff picture and as dangerous as they come.
1 - Detroit vs. Denver
There's something fishy going on in Detroit. Call it injuries, regression, or opposing teams figuring out their tendencies. Whatever it is, the Lions haven't been the same since their bye week. In that five-game stretch, they squeaked by the Chargers and Bears, got humiliated by Green Bay on Thanksgiving, almost blew a 21-point lead to New Orleans, and then were unable to pass on Sunday in Chicago.
A lot has been said about Jared Goff's road/home splits in his career and his performances in cold weather. Sunday's game met that criteria but the bigger issue is his passing when he's pressured. Center Frank Ragnow missed the rematch against the Bears. Good news for Detroit, as Denver ranks 31st among ESPN's pass rush win rate.
The Broncos find ways to keep winning. Against the Chargers, they shut down the offense in the first half with Justin Herbert at the helm and kept cruising when Easton Stick took over for the injured starter.
This will be a fun game, something that we couldn't say in September.
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