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Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season is finally here! The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will host the Detroit Lions on Thursday night to kick off the new campaign on September 7.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. Injury question marks for Sunday and Monday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. We’ll see a lot more toss-ups in Week 1 than usual as we get a feel for how teams will perform in the 2023 season. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.
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Week 1 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 16 - Baltimore vs. Houston
- 15 - Kansas City vs. Detroit
- 14 - Washington vs. Arizona
- 13 - Philadelphia at New England
- 12 - Jacksonville at Indianapolis
The Ravens match up against Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud, who will likely struggle in his first NFL game against an excellent defense. Defending Super Bowl champions have won three of the last four opening night games (Los Angeles Rams last season was the only loss) and while Detroit is improving, their defense won’t be able to slow Patrick Mahomes and Co. Arizona is likely the worst team in football, so you may see a lot of them on the losing end in this category.
Philadelphia may still have the most talented roster top-to-bottom in the NFL and you shouldn’t worry about them losing a road game in New England. Jacksonville is the new king of the AFC South and should have no problem rattling the cage of Indianapolis rookie QB Anthony Richardson.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 1 Pick' Em Pools
11 - Seattle vs. Los Angeles Rams
Just two seasons ago, the Rams were Super Bowl Champions. The roster you’ll see in Seattle in Week 1 is a shell of what it once was. Matthew Stafford will make his grand return but without his star wide receiver Cooper Kupp (hamstring). The defense (outside of Aaron Donald) is nothing to write home about. The Seahawks were the surprise of the NFL last season, and look to take another step with new offensive weapons and the return of linebacker Bobby Wagner.
10 - Minnesota vs. Tampa Bay
The Minnesota Vikings were the worst-best team in NFL history in 2022. They had a minus-3 point differential, which is unheard of for a team that was nine games over .500. The Vikes didn’t do much to improve on defense during the offseason, and the line for wins this season sits at just 8.5. Expect them to drop a lot more games this season, but this one against Tampa Bay with Baker Mayfield leading the charge, should not be one of them.
9 - Denver at Las Vegas
Can Sean Payton lead the revival of Russell Wilson and the Broncos’ offense? Starting the season in Las Vegas is a strong way to get off on the right foot. The Raiders owned the 28th-worst defense in the league in 2022 and had the least amount of takeaways. They did focus heavily on that side of the ball during the NFL Draft, including selecting edge rusher Tyree Wilson seventh overall and signing some veterans to their secondary. The unit still has a long way to go to be considered good, and the presumptive QB downgrade from Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo is enough for me to fade them in Week 1.
| Team | Takeaways |
| New York Jets | 16 |
| Miami Dolphins | 14 |
| New Orleans Saints | 14 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 13 |
8 - San Francisco at Pittsburgh
The San Francisco 49ers were possibly one quarterback injury away from appearing in the Super Bowl. This roster is still ultra-talented on both sides of the ball and they own the highest over/under number for win totals in the NFC. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, wins more games than they lose with Mike Tomlin at the helm. With a rookie quarterback, a patchwork offensive line, and an injured T.J. Watt, Tomlin still led the Steelers to nine wins in 2022. They’re a team trending upward, but San Francisco should still take care of business on the road.
NFL Pickem Toss-Up Of Week 1
7 - Dallas at New York Giants
If Seattle wasn’t the biggest surprise of the 2022 season, the New York Giants were. Coach Brian Daboll led the G-Men to their first playoff victory in more than 10 years while racking up nine wins during the regular season. Two of their losses, however, came at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys. Both were one-score games, but the Dallas roster is still more talented than New York’s, even with offseason additions like TE Darren Waller and LB Bobby Okereke.
6 - New Orleans vs. Tennessee
The new era in New Orleans is here. Quarterback Derek Carr takes over for outgoing veteran Andy Dalton, who led the team to seven wins. Obviously, the team thinks Carr is an upgrade over the new Carolina Panther, and the defense, while not spectacular, has been solid for the last five seasons. Tennessee, on the other hand, enters the season with a lot of question marks about their future. During the offseason, there was a moment when it looked like the Titans could opt for a rebuild. Instead, they retooled by adding All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Still, this team, with an aging Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill, could struggle at times this season.
5 - Atlanta vs. Carolina
These cross-division rivals split their two meetings in 2022 (although the Panthers nearly swept the series on a miracle Hail Mary in Week 8). Bryce Young will make his first career start alongside new coach Frank Reich. Expect the Falcons to continue to play their smashmouth style of football, behind rookie Bijan Robinson and sophomore Tyler Allgeier. On the back of the run game, and a home-field advantage, I’m taking Atlanta here.
4 - Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami
There’s a lot to like about both of these teams. Young quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa lead innovative offenses from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and head coach Mike McDaniel, respectively. Both are loaded with receiving talent (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and rookie Quentin Johnston for L.A. and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in Miami). Miami cornerback Jalen Ramsey won’t be in uniform and their other top corner, Xavien Howard, won’t be able to cover everyone. That, coupled with home-field advantage, gives the edge to Los Angeles.
3 - Buffalo at New York Jets
If you’ve watched any episodes of Hard Knocks this summer, you know that the weak point of the Jets is their offensive line. Reports out of training camp tell us that Aaron Rodgers is running for his life often. The Buffalo Bills front seven is loaded with talent and will put a lot of pressure on Rodgers in his New York debut.
2 - Cincinnati at Cleveland
The Bengals have proven over the last couple of seasons that they are better than their in-state rival but they struggle to win in The Land. Cincinnati has not been victorious there since 2017. The odds still favor Joe Burrow and Co. and talent trumps trends, but it does make you pause and reconsider the pick.
| Year | Result |
| Bengals at Browns (2017) | 31-7 (W) |
| Bengals at Browns (2018) | 18-26 (L) |
| Bengals at Browns (2019) | 19-27 (L) |
| Bengals at Browns (2020) | 30-35 (L) |
| Bengals at Browns (2021) | 16-21 (L) |
| Bengals at Browns (2022) | 13-32 (L) |
1 - Green Bay at Chicago
This is the upset special of the week. The Packers still have a more talented roster than the Bears, even without Aaron Rodgers, and the Bears need to show that they’re building a contender around Justin Fields for me to buy in. Jordan Love looks sharp in the preseason and will shock NFL fans in Week 1.
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