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Jorden Hill's NFL DFS prop picks for No House Advantage Pick 'Em contests and the Week 18 early slate. Use his NFL prop picks to win money.
The final week of the 2022-2023 NFL regular season is upon us, and there are plenty of crucial matchups that will determine the postseason fate for a handful of teams. With most fantasy championships wrapped up in Week 17, there's no better way to get in on the action this Sunday than by entering some player prop contests offered by our friends at No House Advantage!
There are a total of five Pick 'Em contests available this week, with three centered around just the early slate, one focused on the afternoon slate, and one for Sunday night's showdown. These contests range from just $5-$15 per entry and will place you against other players for your chance to win cash from prize pools worth as much as $15,000!
Additionally, No House Advantage is offering a VS. THE HOUSE contest to win up to 21x your money if your prop picks are correct. We'll get into some of my favorite props for Sunday's early slate Pick 'Em contests, but we'll first review how to play for those that are new to No House Advantage.
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How to Play on No House Advantage
The first step is to sign up for an account with code BALLER and claim your free deposit match (and RotoBaller Premium Pass). Then choose your DFS player props contest. Whether or not you want to play against a larger or smaller field is entirely up to you, as is the entry fee you wish to pay. Then, you select 10 player props you like, deciding to bet the over or the under, and ranking them in order of confidence.
For example, if you believe D.J. Moore will continue his hot streak with Sam Darnold at quarterback, you would select Moore's over 63.5 receiving yards prop as your 10-point selection. Note that it is still possible to win some cash with an incorrect choice or two, but the number of points your misses cost you will be critical.
Once all of Sunday's early games are wrapped up, total points will be calculated for all entries in the contest and winnings will be distributed to the top performers. Contests like this make No House Advantage an extremely unique and fun DFS site, and we’re here to give you some ideas for your early slate picks.
Higher Confidence Picks - Week 18 Early Slate
Tom Brady (vs. ATL) under 300.5 passing yards
The GOAT is coming off his best performance of the season and will face off against another divisional opponent with an exploitable passing defense this week. Under normal circumstances, Tom Brady could surpass 300 yards with ease in this game, but there's one obvious reason he will not on Sunday.
The Buccaneers have nothing to play for. Tampa Bay clinched the NFC South division title in Week 17 and is already locked into the fourth seed, so the outcome of this contest does not affect their postseason fate.
Head coach Todd Bowles announced earlier this week that Brady will indeed start against Atlanta, but he also mentioned that second-year pro Kyle Trask will likely be active on Sunday. Trask is listed as the third quarterback on the team's depth chart and is yet to appear in a regular season game, so the fact that he even has a chance to dress this week tells us that the starters are almost guaranteed to be pulled early.
It's hard to imagine Brady playing beyond the first half as veteran Blaine Gabbert should also see some playing time ahead of Trask. Brady has only eclipsed 300 passing yards five times this season in full games, so there's a very low probability that he does it in limited action this week.
To avoid redundancy, I will not be writing in detail about other Buccaneers starters, but I would also feel confident taking the under on all of Chris Godwin's props and Leonard Fournette's props.
T.J. Hockenson (vs. CHI) under 5.5 receptions
The Minnesota Vikings have a little more to play for than the Buccaneers, but this Week 18 matchup against the Chicago Bears still isn't all that crucial.
Like the Bucs, the Vikings have already locked up their division title. They currently hold the No. 3 seed in the NFC but could enter the playoffs as the No. 2 seed if things shake out in their favor on Sunday. Minnesota would jump up one spot with a win over the Bears and a Cardinals victory against the 49ers but has no chance to secure a first-round playoff bye.
With the Cardinals listed as two-touchdown underdogs on most sportsbooks, it seems improbable that the Vikings clinch the second seed, so there's a decent chance their starters get some rest on Sunday. Out of all their key offensive pieces, though, T.J. Hockenson stands out to me as the least likely to produce.
Looking at the matchup, Chicago has been stout against the tight end position this season. The Bears have allowed the fewest receptions and the third-fewest receiving yards in the league to tight ends. Since Hockenson arrived in Minnesota, he has been a focal point of the team's passing attack, but I wouldn't expect this to be the case for however long he plays in Week 18.
Justin Jefferson needs 194 receiving yards to break Calvin Johnson's single-season record. It would be incredibly lofty to project him for that amount this week, but he's one of the very few wideouts in the league that could put up close to 200 receiving yards on any given Sunday. In fact, Jefferson reached 154 yards on 12 receptions in his first bout with the Bears this year. The takeaway from all of this is that Jefferson may be force-fed the rock in an attempt to break the record for as long as the starters are out there.
Jefferson's narrative aside, the Vikings could just play this one conservatively and run the ball on Chicago's leaky run defense. If they get out to an early lead, the starters shouldn't play much more than the first half. I have a fair amount of confidence that Hockenson won't haul in six passes on limited snaps.
Drake London (vs. TB) over 4.5 receptions
I listed Drake London's receptions prop as a high-confidence selection last week, and I'm going right back to the well for Week 18.
London has hauled in at least five receptions in four straight contests, and more importantly, in all three of Desmond Ridder's starts. He has also averaged over nine targets per game with Ridder under center as the clear-cut primary weapon in Atlanta's passing attack. In London's first career matchup with Tampa Bay in Week 5, he led the team with four receptions. Obviously, this would not have been enough to eclipse his line of 4.5, but Marcus Mariota was still the starting quarterback at the time.
The Falcons won't be playing for much other than pride on Sunday, although I'm sure they would love to hand Tom Brady his first losing season in 22 years as a starter. As mentioned earlier, the Bucs have already secured the NFC South division title and the fourth seed in the playoffs, so there's a high likelihood they rest their stars at some point. There's little reason to believe the Falcons won't let their starters play the entirety of the game as it will be their last chance to suit up this season.
London, the first receiver selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, will be looking to end his rookie campaign on a high note, and I trust Ridder to give him every opportunity to do so.
Lower Confidence Picks - Week 18 Early Slate
Deshaun Watson (vs. PIT) under 225.5 passing yards
The Cleveland Browns may have been eliminated from the playoffs, but they will surely be trying to spoil their division rival's chances on Sunday. This should be a competitive game, but this line still feels a bit high for Deshaun Watson, who has struggled since his return from suspension.
Watson has surpassed 200 passing yards just once in his five starts this season. His passing yardage prop is sitting between 207 and 212 on other sportsbooks, so we definitely have a bit of an edge here. What scares me off this line even more, though, is the matchup against Pittsburgh.
The Steelers haven't been superb against the pass for the entirety of the season, but have been incredibly stout over the past eight weeks. In that span, Pittsburgh allowed just one quarterback to reach 226 yards and surrendered an average of only 189.75 passing yards per game. What makes this sample special? 2021 Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt was active for all eight outings. In seven games without their star edge rusher this season, the Steelers gave up an average of 278.86 passing yards per contest.
Additionally, Watson and the Browns will be playing in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers defense has given up about 27 fewer passing yards per game this year. I don't expect a ton of scoring in this matchup and anticipate the Browns leaning on Nick Chubb, who ran for 113 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh back in Week 3.
Garrett Wilson (vs. MIA) over 4.5 receptions
New York Jets rookie wideout Garrett Wilson let fantasy managers down last week when he finished with just three receptions for 18 yards. He was considered a must-start option with Mike White back in at quarterback, but the two were clearly not on the same page despite 11 targets going Wilson's way.
I like Wilson's chances to bounce back this week against a beatable Miami secondary. For what it's worth, the Jets faced the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17, a team that has surrendered the fifth-fewest receptions to wide receivers this season. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have allowed the eighth-most.
Joe Flacco will get the nod at quarterback on Sunday, and I also like this for Wilson. Flacco began the season as the starter, and it didn't take long for the rookie to become his go-to guy. Wilson earned eight, 14, and 11 targets from Flacco in his three starts and eclipsed five receptions in two of them. In his first professional game, Wilson finished on the hook of this line with four catches.
The Jets have been eliminated from playoff contention, but they still have a few things to play for in Week 18. For one, with a win over the Dolphins, New York will have swept Miami in a season for the first time since 2015.
Additionally, a victory would eliminate the Dolphins, a division rival, from the playoffs. Wilson himself is motivated by this, as evidenced in an interview earlier this week. "We want to finish strong. ...It's about going about this week the right way, preparing the right way, and having a chance to play against a good team in Miami, an in-division team. We can send them home, too," the rookie said.
He is no longer favored to win the award, but with a strong showing to close the season, Wilson could solidify himself as the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year. Flacco should be getting him the ball early and often.
Tyreek Hill (vs. NYJ) under 88.5 receiving yards
For my least-confident pick of the week, I'm going on the other side of Garrett Wilson's matchup and betting against one of the most unstoppable receivers in the league.
Tyreek Hill has surpassed 89 receiving yards in exactly half of his contests this season. One of the eight in which he fell short came against the New York Jets in Week 5. Hill finished with seven receptions for just 47 yards with seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson under center. Coincidentally, he'll have Thompson throwing him the ball again this week as both Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater are injured.
Hill possesses the type of elite talent that would allow him to produce with just about anyone at quarterback, but he also has an incredibly difficult matchup to worry about. As mentioned above, the Jets limited Hill to fewer than 50 yards earlier this season, but he's not the only WR1 that was shut down by New York. The Jets have allowed the fewest yards to opposing wide receivers this season, with much of the credit due to rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner.
In addition to Hill, the list of wideouts contained by Gardner this year includes Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, Ja'Marr Chase, and DK Metcalf. All four were held to fewer than 50 receiving yards in a game against the Jets this season.
I expect Thompson to target Hill frequently as this is a must-win game for Miami, so I'd avoid taking the under on his 6.5 receptions prop. Of course, Hill could top 89 receiving yards with just a few big plays, but this line is just too high when considering the matchup. On other sportsbooks, Hill's prop is listed at around 66.5 receiving yards, giving us an edge of over 20 yards.
Week 18 Picks - Sample Pick 'Em Entry
Below is a sample Pick 'Em entry for the Week 18 early slate on No House Advantage. Hopefully, this will give you some helpful insight.
You can enter NFL Pick 'Em contests now on No House Advantage as well. Be sure to use code BALLER when signing up for your free $50 deposit match, and a free RotoBaller Premium Pass!
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