NFL Pick 'Em: Player Prop Picks for No House Advantage - Early Slate (Week 15)

Week 15 is upon us and we have already been treated to some incredible football on Saturday, so here's to hoping Sunday's slate is equally exciting. With many fantasy managers competing in the first round of the playoffs, your weekend might be off to an excellent start, or maybe you didn't get so lucky (I feel your pain, Jonathan Taylor managers).

Either way, there are plenty of opportunities to keep the good times rolling or turn things around by partaking in some player prop contests offered by our friends at No House Advantage!

Although four games have already come to a conclusion this week, there are still 10 different Pick 'Em contests to enter against other players for your chance to win some cash prizes! Some focus on just the early game slate, but there are also contests for the afternoon slate and single-game showdown tournaments for Sunday night and Monday night. These contests range from just $5-$15 per entry but feature prize pools worth as much as $20,000.

Additionally, No House Advantage is offering a VS. THE HOUSE contest to win up to 21x your money if your prop picks are correct.

We'll get into some of my favorite props for the early slate Pick 'Em contests, but we'll first review how to play for those that are new to No House Advantage.

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How to Play on No House Advantage

The first step is to sign up for an account with code BALLER and claim your free deposit match (and RotoBaller Premium Pass). Then choose your DFS player props contest. Whether or not you want to play against a larger or smaller field is entirely up to you, as is the entry fee you wish to pay. Then, you select 10 player props you like, deciding to bet the over or the under, and ranking them in order of confidence.

For example, if you feel confident that Jalen Hurts will make light work of the Chicago Bears' defense, you would choose Hurts' over 245.5 passing yards prop as your 10-point selection. Note that it is still possible to win some cash with an incorrect choice or two, but the number of points your misses cost you will be critical.

Once all of Sunday's early games are wrapped up, total points will be calculated for all entries in the contest and winnings will be distributed to the top performers. Contests like this make No House Advantage an extremely unique and fun DFS site, and we’re here to give you some ideas for your early slate picks.

Higher Confidence Picks - Week 15 Early Slate

Chris Moore (vs. KC) over 2.5 receptions

Taking an over prop for a Houston Texans player sounds pretty gross, and it might seem even worse when the player has been in the league since 2016 and just eclipsed 1,000 career receiving yards this season.

29-year-old wideout Chris Moore is in the midst of the best season of his seven-year career with 37 receptions for 438 yards and two touchdowns. Almost 30 percent of his receptions and yardage came just last week, as he posted 10 receptions for 124 yards on 11 targets against a stingy Cowboys defense. Usually, performances like this are an anomaly, but you couldn't draw up a better scenario for Moore to find success again this week.

Moore played on 80 percent of the Texans' offensive snaps last week with starters Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks inactive. Both players have been ruled out for this Sunday's contest, clearing the way for Moore to again operate as the team's WR1. Better yet, his matchup this week is ideal.

The Chiefs allow almost 14 receptions per game to the wide receiver position, eighth-most in the NFL. Because Kansas City will enter this contest as a 14.5-point favorite, we can expect Houston to throw the ball frequently, especially with starting running back Dameon Pierce on Injured Reserve.

If this line was a bit higher, I'd be skeptical as Moore is far from a proven commodity, but he's surpassed this total in five of his past six games and two of those were with a fully healthy receiver room. While I wouldn't bet on him reaching the heights he did last week, three receptions shouldn't be much of a sweat.

Alvin Kamara (vs. ATL) over 56.5 rushing yards

To say this season has been a disappointment for Alvin Kamara would be an understatement. The five-time Pro Bowler had a nice stretch of games between Weeks 5 and 8 but has averaged just 27.4 rushing yards per contest since.

If we dive deeper into the past five weeks, though, we can see that Kamara's schedule has been brutal. Four of his five opponents were in the top half of the league's run defenses and three ranked inside the top-five. That doesn't necessarily justify New Orleans giving him less than 10 carries per game in that span, but we can understand why he struggled to run efficiently.

Kamara and the Saints will now return from a Week 14 bye to face the Atlanta Falcons, who have been much more friendly to running backs. Atlanta ranks as the eighth-worst run defense in the league, allowing almost 130 rushing yards per game. With Mark Ingram II now on Injured Reserve, Kamara should see the vast majority of touches out of the backfield, and the workload could be heavy.

The Saints are favored to defeat the Falcons, who will have quarterback Desmond Ridder taking the field for the first start of his career. It's possible he performs better than Marcus Mariota had been, but it still seems like a stretch to project the rookie leading his team to a victory in New Orleans for his first start. If the Saints manage to get out to an early lead, expect them to protect it by leaning on Kamara in a prime bounce-back spot.

A.J. Brown (vs. CHI) under 6.5 receptions

A.J. Brown enters Week 15 sixth in the league in receiving yards and the Chicago Bears allow the 10th-most passing yards per game. What's not to love?

Sometimes, both the player and the matchup can be great, but the line is simply just too high. Throughout his career, Brown has dominated with efficiency and not necessarily with heavy volume. In fact, he's only recorded seven receptions in a single game twice this season.

The Bears can be beaten through the air, but they're actually much worse at defending the run. Chicago surrenders over 146 rushing yards per game, which is the sixth-highest mark in the league. Funny enough, on the other side of the ball, the Eagles trail only the Bears in rushing attempts and rushing yards per game. While both squads could choose to rely on the running game, Philadelphia should have a much easier time doing so as their defense could make things difficult for Justin Fields and company.

This just isn't the matchup that should force Jalen Hurts to air it out as he did two weeks ago against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are a stout run defense but have a leaky secondary that allowed Hurts and Brown to combine for eight receptions, 119 yards, and two touchdowns.

The Eagles' game script this week should be much more similar to last week's where they racked up 253 rushing yards in a victory over the Giants. Brown recorded just four receptions.

Lower Confidence Picks - Week 15 Early Slate

CeeDee Lamb (vs. JAX) under 6.5 receptions

The reasoning for this pick is exactly the same as that discussed in the A.J. Brown selection above. The line is just too high.

CeeDee Lamb has enjoyed a breakout season in his first as the Cowboys' clear-cut WR1. Just like Brown, though, Lamb has finished under this total far more often than he has exceeded it. The third-year wideout has three games this year with seven or more receptions.

The Jaguars' defense is one that Dak Prescott and Dallas' passing attack can exploit, but that doesn't mean Lamb will be the primary beneficiary. Just last week against the Texans, Lamb finished with six targets, the same amount seen by Noah Brown and Michael Gallup. Prescott's favorite option, though, was tight end Dalton Schultz, who earned 10 targets. Jacksonville has struggled against opposing tight ends this season, so it's definitely a possibility that Schultz leads the Cowboys in receiving once again.

I like Lamb in this matchup this week, and I have less confidence betting on this pick than on A.J. Brown's receptions prop as I believe the Cowboys are likely to throw the ball more than the Eagles. The 6.5 line is just a little high as it sits at 5.5 on other sportsbooks.

Isiah Pacheco (vs. HOU) over 70.5 rushing yards

This is a perfectly fair line for rookie running back Isiah Pacheco, so we're not getting any crazy edge on this prop. I just love the matchup and think Pacheco has a great opportunity to have a career day.

The Texans are a bad team all around, but perhaps their biggest weakness is their run defense. Houston has allowed 10 different players to rush for over 70 yards in a game this season. As mentioned under the Chris Moore receptions pick listed above, the Chiefs will enter this contest as two-touchdown favorites. Assuming Kansas City takes the lead early, there is little reason to believe they will not feed the ball to Pacheco.

But we can't just blindly make a selection based on the matchup without taking a look at the player's recent output. Fortunately, Pacheco has been great since taking on a lead role back in Week 10. He's eclipsed 71 rushing yards just twice since then but totaled 69, 66, and 70 rushing yards in the other three contests. In other words, he's consistently hovered right around this line. Furthermore, the three matchups in which he came up just short were all against top-16 run defenses.

It was Jerick McKinnon that had a huge showing last week, but almost all of McKinnon's damage this season has come through the air. The veteran averages fewer than five carries and 20 rushing yards per game, so there should be virtually no concerns with McKinnon taking touches away from Pacheco. The 22-year-old should see a lot of volume against the league's worst run defense.

Sam Darnold (vs. PIT) under 191.5 passing yards

The Carolina Panthers are 2-0 with Sam Darnold under center and find themselves squarely in the mix to win the NFC South division title. Who would have thought?

Although Darnold has been just fine, Carolina is quite literally being carried to victories by its running backs. The Panthers tallied 46 rushing attempts in each of their past two games as both D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard have been extremely productive. In these same two contests, Darnold has thrown for 164 yards and 120 yards, respectively.

Darnold will get to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, a team that has allowed the ninth-most passing yards in the league this season. In all of its past three games, though, Pittsburgh has held opponents to fewer than 200 yards through the air. Of course, it's important to note that these opponents were the Colts, Falcons, and Ravens, but judging by what we've seen this year, Darnold shouldn't be viewed as a much bigger threat than Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, or Tyler Huntley.

With Mitch Trubisky expected to draw the start, the Steelers' offense could struggle to put up points, as it has for the majority of 2022. Don't anticipate the Panthers airing it out in what should be a low-scoring affair. This is a lower-confidence pick because the 191.5 line is not particularly high, but Darnold's passing yards prop is sitting in the 175-179 range on other sportsbooks, which gives us a bit of an edge here.

Week 15 Picks - Sample Pick 'Em Entry

Below is a sample Pick 'Em entry for the Week 15 early slate on No House Advantage. Hopefully, this will give you some helpful insight.

You can enter NFL Pick 'Em contests now on No House Advantage as well. Be sure to use code BALLER when signing up for your free $50 deposit match, and a free RotoBaller Premium Pass!

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