NFL Free Agency Preview - Fantasy Football Quarterback Edition

While it may seem like a long way off, we are less than 50 days from the start of the NFL free agency period. Free agency officially marks the start of the new league year and for us fantasy football fiends, the ramifications of free agency can have a significant impact on a player’s fantasy football value for the upcoming season.

For this new series, we’ll be focusing on each of the four fantasy-relevant positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and which players are set to hit free agency. We’ll look at some of their most likely destinations, their best fantasy football landing spots, and how their value could be impacted.

If you play in a dynasty or keeper league, there can often be buying windows on certain NFL free agents because many fantasy managers can be deterred or turned off by the unknown destination of a player’s landing spot. The free agency group for the quarterback position is unsurprisingly very bad. It includes two quarterbacks likely to re-sign with their respective teams and a bunch of backups. Let’s get started.

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Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Cousins is the premier free agent quarterback available and even though he tore his Achilles this past season, fantasy managers should expect Cousins to have plenty of suitors. This past season, through eight games, he was on pace for 4,954 passing yards, 38 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.

Cousins is a gamer and doesn’t get nearly enough credit for how good he’s been for Minnesota. From 2018-2022, Cousins has averaged 4,187 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions per season. In fact, since 2018, Cousins ranks seventh among active quarterbacks in passing yards per game and third in passing touchdowns per game, trailing only Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.

As underrated as he’s been in NFL circles, he’s been just as underrated when it comes to fantasy football. Below you’ll find Cousins’ PPG average and his final PPG ranking since 2015, which was the first season he took over as the primary and full-time starter for Washington.

• 2015 – QB12 (18.3 PPG)
• 2016 – QB6 (19.3)
• 2017 – QB7 (18.0)
• 2018 – QB13 (18.1)
• 2019 – QB16 (16.7)
• 2020 – QB11 (19.0)
• 2021 – QB12 (19.0)
• 2022 – QB13 (18.3)
• 2023 – QB6 (19.3)

So, you know, put some respect on his name. The dude’s a gamer and a damn good quarterback. Based on his age and his desire to win a Super Bowl, his free agency destination seem to be pretty clear. He’s either going to stay at home in Minnesota where he’s comfortable and where his family is or he’s going to chase a Super Bowl for a team that he believes has a better Super Bowl shot than the Vikings.

This means his list consists of just two teams, the Vikings and the Falcons. Minnesota is not a realistic Super Bowl team, but he’s been there for six years. His family resides there. He has a close relationship with head coach Kevin O’Connell. For fantasy purposes, the best place for Cousins is back in Minnesota.

He’d be in the same offense that he knows well and that he’s produced at an elite level. He’d also return to established pass-catchers Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. Should he return to Minnesota, Cousins should be viewed as a mid-QB2. In my very early top-175 fantasy rankings, which you can find here, I have Cousins ranked as my QB19 with the assumption he returns to Minnesota.

If Cousins were to end up in Atlanta, he’d maintain fantasy relevance. The Falcons have Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts already on the roster, who would give Cousins plenty of offensive firepower to be a solid QB2. However, question marks around the new head coach and offensive coordinator would give it pause.

In any move from Minnesota, Cousins would be learning a new system, and that can take time. In this scenario, Cousins should be viewed as a back-end QB2. If Cousins were to go someplace other than Minnesota or Atlanta, two of the more appealing destinations for a quarterback, he’d be best viewed as a high-end QB3.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mayfield signed a one-year, prove-it deal with the Buccaneers this past season. From 2021-2022 with the Browns, Panthers, and Rams, Mayfield struggled significantly. He was mostly viewed as a bridge quarterback, someone to be used until the team could find their long-term answer.

However, this past season, Mayfield revitalized his career with a monster bounce-back season. He should have been a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. Mayfield received an honorable mention in my recent 2023 Breakout Quarterbacks article that you can read here to get a more in-depth look at his season.

Reports have started to trickle out that Mayfield could command $40 to $45 million a year in free agency. He’s earned that after his strong play this past season. He threw for 4,044 yards (a career-high), 28 touchdowns (a career-high), and just 10 interceptions.

He also had the best completion percentage of his career at 64.3%. Tampa Bay won the NFC South and was able to knock off the defending NFC champions, the Eagles, in the Wild Card. Mayfield was a huge reason why, finishing with 337 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions. He wasn’t as good in the Divisional Round against Detroit, but Mayfield kept them in it, finishing with 349 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions.

Mayfield finished 2023 as the QB15 with a 17.4 PPG average. I expect him to return to Tampa Bay, but there are two big moves that could impact Mayfield’s value in a big way. The first is Mike Evans. Evans was clearly Mayfield’s favorite target and he’s a free agent. If he’s not back in Tampa, it would be a major hit to Mayfield.

The other is offensive coordinator Dave Canales. He was in Seattle as their QB coach and helped revitalize Geno Smith’s career in 2022. Now, he’s done the same with Mayfield. He has since accepted the head coaching position for Carolina. That's not ideal. Right now, Mayfield is ranked as the QB25 in my latest rankings, which puts him right on the cusp of back-end QB2 status or a high-end QB3.

Other possible destinations for Mayfield could include the Atlanta Falcons or Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams are in desperate need of quarterback help and are not in a position to get one of the consensus top-three passers, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, or Jayden Daniels, in this year’s draft. If Cousins were to go to Atlanta, Minnesota could become a dark-horse suitor for Mayfield. In the end, I expect Cousins and Mayfield to return to their 2023 respective teams.

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

From 2019-2021, Tannehill had revitalized his career with Tennessee. In 45 appearances, he racked up 8,540 passing yards, 76 touchdowns, and 27 interceptions. He also had 721 rushing yards and 18 rushing scores. In 2019, he was the QB10 with a 19.3 PPG average. He was QB9 in 2020, averaging 21.5 PPG, and finished as the QB16 in 2021 with a 15.9 PPG. He made one Pro Bowl and the Titans secured one No. 1 seed in the playoffs and advanced to the AFC Championship Game in 2019. They made the playoffs in all three seasons.

Prior to the 2022 season, the Titans traded A.J. Brown and the wheels came off. Tannehill played in 12 games but averaged just 211 yards per game and 1.08 passing touchdowns per game. This past season, Tannehill was benched for rookie Will Levis. He started eight games and finished with just 1,616 passing yards, four touchdowns, and seven interceptions.

At this stage of his career, he’s most likely to be viewed as a super-backup of sorts. As far as his possible destinations, the options are endless. Considering how significant the quarterback injuries this past season were, there could become a bigger emphasis on the No. 2 quarterback spot on each team’s depth chart. In that sense, any team would be thrilled to have Tannehill. The question becomes if he’s willing to accept a pure backup role or if he’d like to go somewhere with the possibility of starting.

Wherever he goes, he won’t be expected to start Week 1, but a place like Pittsburgh could offer him a chance to compete against Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph. Regardless of where Tannehill decides to go, he’ll be well off the fantasy football radar.

Jacoby Brissett, Washington Commanders

Brissett, like Tannehill, is one of those super-backup quarterbacks. In any given year, Brissett could have a claim to being one of the top 32 quarterbacks. Granted, it would be in that 28-32 range, but with rookie disappointments, his talent and production likely fall in that range.

However, Brissett offers no real upside. He is what he is at this point, which is why younger guys who may struggle continue to start over him. They have an upside, which is the correct decision, but it also makes Brissett a quality quarterback to have in that backup role.

Brissett started 15 games for the Colts in 2019 and he finished with 2,942 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. His quarterback rating was 88.0. In 2022, Brissett started 11 games for the Browns. He finished with 2,608 yards, 12 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. His quarterback rating was 88.9. These numbers aren’t going to wow you or blow you away, but they’re solid. Most importantly, he doesn’t turn the ball over. He makes the smart, safe decision, and lets his teammates do the heavy lifting.

Brissett is strictly a backup at this stage, even if he’s a very capable one. Brissett’s best landing spot could be with the Jets backing up Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off his torn Achilles injury. Or in Minnesota backing up Kirk Cousins, who is coming off the same injury.

If either player isn’t ready in Week 1 or has a setback, Brissett would be a more than capable guy to lean on for a few weeks. Other good fits for him could include the Rams, who have Matthew Stafford, but he isn’t getting any younger and has dealt with injuries the past few years. They eventually signed Carson Wentz at the end of the 2023 season, but they could look for an upgrade at that No. 2 spot for Stafford.

Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts

Minshew is another one of those super-backups. As a rookie with the Jaguars back in 2019, Minshew played in 14 games and threw for 3,271 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. He completed 60.6% of his passes and finished with a 91.2 quarterback rating. Minshew started his second season, but was benched midway through the year. He finished with eight starts, 2,259 yards, 16 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. He completed 66.1% of his passes and finished with a 95.9 quarterback rating.

In 15 games of action this past season with the Colts, Minshew threw for 3,305 yards, 15 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He completed 62.2% of his passes and finished with an 84.6 quarterback rating. He helped lead the Colts to a 9-8 record and was on the verge of a playoff appearance, but ultimately fell short. He averaged just 14.05 PPG for fantasy this season.

Minshew’s best fit would be to return to Indianapolis and back up Anthony Richardson. Richardson suffered multiple concussions and a shoulder injury in his rookie season. If he were to miss time again next season, Minshew is familiar with the system and could step seamlessly into that starter’s role again. Other options could include the Steelers as they’re looking for veteran competition to Pickett and Rudolph.

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