NFL Draft Reaction - QB ADP Fallers

Antonio Losada takes a look at the ADP variation of multiple quarterbacks in the weeks before and after the last NFL Draft and assesses their situations and the reasons behind those moves.

We've been examining some of the top ADP risers following the outcomes of the 2021 NFL Draft, including a look at RB Risers, WR Risers, TE Risers, and QB Risers. We now shift to the other side of the equation with some declining values. We've already covered WR Fallers and TE Fallers, so now it's time to move to quarterbacks.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against.

By now, with free agency and the draft finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to look at how ADPs are varying during the last few days as we start to gear up for our fantasy draft season. In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from just before the past NFL draft to right after it finished, using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period. Today, it's time to look at some quarterback fallers.

Quarterbacks - ADP Fallers

Cam Newton, New England Patriots

The New England Patriots are surely moving on from what they did in 2020... kinda. The Pats opted to re-sign Cam this offseason, handing him one more year to man their pocket. Well, that was until last week, when QB Mac Jones fell right in New England's lap and the Patriots drafted him with the 15th overall pick in the middle of the 2021 draft's first round.

First of all, Newton wasn't bad last season, finishing as a QB2 playing for a depleted team that featured just four skill-position players with 100+ PPR points, and only one (Jakobi Meyers) making it to the top-125 players in that format... Newton, who played 15 games last season, scored 12 touchdowns rushing to just eight touchdowns passing while throwing 10 picks. That, simply put, was a middling performance at best.

With a bolstered offensive unit that features two new, top-tier tight ends in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, and a kinda-revamped WR corps that includes WR1 Nelson Agholor and WR2 Kendrick Bourne (along with Meyers as the WR3), odds are New England has more success in the passing game. And if that's going to be the case, Mac Jones will be the one tasked with making it happen. It looks like Cam has the edge entering the training-camp portion of the off/pre-season, but there are very serious chances Jones ends up starting by the middle of the 2021 campaign. And if that's the case, you obviously don't want to have anything to do with either Newton or Jones, as you'll be getting some half-cut upside from them.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

I don't think this drop in ADP is hard to understand. Even more, the most probable development going forward is to see it falling down and down until either 1) Rodgers speaks favorably on his Packers future and gets locked into the QB1 the teams wants to see in him or 2) Green Bay decides to truly move on and trades him away. Which of those two options is closer to happening, you ask? If I (and we all collectively) am honest, I have no idea. This has been a bonkers situation for more than a year now, so who knows how it will end.

But, fantasy GMs are smart by the look of things. One of the most discussed and probable outcomes of this drama is getting both parts entering a cold war in which Rodgers decides to sit out a few games until the situation changes (yes, a QB holding out for the start of the season) and the Packers refuse to trade their best player in tow (until there is no true point of return, which should eventually be the case).

Now, are you going to draft a guy that could potentially hold out for a few weeks to kick the 2021 season off? Hard, even more at a prime position. Rodgers is insanely great. He comes off an MVP (MVP!) season and a top-three fantasy season in which he was only bested by Kyler Murray (by 0.4 FP) and Josh Allen (16.8). The numbers were magnificent with 48 touchdowns against just five interceptions, a 67% completion rate, and a bonus three scores on the ground on a limited 149 rushing yards in 38 runs. Rodgers can be a top-tier QB in 2021 no matter Green Bay's virtually unchanged offense... or he can screw your team and miss a third of the year before moving on to play for another team that might or might not be good for him.

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

No real developments on Watson's front, although I don't think a lot of them are needed in order to change our fantasy expectations when it comes to the (still active) Texans QB1. As if Watson's off-field issues weren't worrying enough, though, Houston made everything that was on its hands in last week's draft to put even more clouds above Watson's head. To wit: the Texans drafted a QB (Davis Mills) with their first pick in the 2021 draft (a third-rounder, mind you) and that might mean they know what's coming sooner rather than later. Oh, and they also signed veteran backup QB Tyrod Taylor earlier, just in case.

Watson is not in the exact same position as Rodgers (read above), but for our fantasy interests, they are very similar. Watson might miss a few games to start the year if he gets any sort of ban, and even if he comes back at some point--or what the heck, even if he starts the season as the QB1 and starting Week 1--it is not that these Texans inspire high confidence among fantasy GMs these days...

The Texans' additions this offseason come down to rookie WR Nico Collins, former Jaguar WR Chris Conley (6.9 FPG last season), and a pair of rushers in Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram II to play in a hyper-crowded backfield that already featured David Johnson. Randall Cobb isn't bad, nor is Keke Coutee. WR1 Brandin Cooks is great, of course. But that's it. With Will Fuller V gone, Watson would need another career year--which he already did in 2020 with his highest FP-tally in the NFL--to return any value. The ADP has gone down more than a full-round already, and it will probably keep that path going forward if we don't get any positive news about Deshaun Watson's future.

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