RADIO
The Week 18 SNF game between Buffalo and Miami game capped off the 2023 NFL regular season, which meant an official end to fantasy football. Well, for the psychos that are still in 18-week leagues that is. For all of the other real fantasy footballers out there that ended in Week 17, you all had already moved on to playoff challenges, confidence pools, or my personal favorite type of fantasy, DFS.
There's nothing like winning a fantasy championship, where you can legitimately recognize the payoff from all those hours grinding away on roster moves, start/sit decisions, and waiver priorities. However, the reality for the majority of league members is that grinding becomes an unrealized accomplishment, while the whispers of "there's always next year" start to flood the collective heads. The wonderful thing about NFL DFS is that you don't need to wait an entire offseason to get back into fantasy! So what if you drafted poorly and made a couple of bonehead trades that sent your team even further into the gutter.
DFS is here to save you from your sorrows. If you've been playing this game for years or just now getting sucked into the wonderful world of Daily Fantasy Sports, at RotoBaller we are here to help guide you into the money on whatever game format you chose. I'm not here to highlight the high-money plays, but instead hone in on some of the cheaper options that should outperform relative to their cost. This can help you manage your budget more effectively and hopefully, put you in the money. Let's get to it.
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Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Wild Card Round
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams | DK: $6,500, FD: $7,400
Matchup: at Detroit Lions (30th vs. opposing QBs - DK)
The NFL script writers were really cooking with gas this season. My #1 wish looking back was maybe taking it easier on the number of QB injuries, but the storylines for Wild Card weekend are by far the best that I can remember. Mike McCarthy facing his former team in Green Bay, whom he won a Super Bowl with in 2011. Tyreek Hill returning to KC in what could be the coldest game in league history.
However, there is one that stands above the rest. The crown jewel. Matthew Stafford coming back to Detroit where he owns every franchise record under the sun, to potentially spoil the best Lions season in decades. We get a Jared Goff revenge game here as well of course, although that is overshadowed by the rest of the spicy narratives.
I'm a believer that Detroit will get their first playoff win in 32 years, but it won't come easily. I expect Stafford and the Rams to put up a lot of points in this one, especially against a Lions pass defense that ranks sixth-worst in yards allowed per game and touchdowns conceded. With how good the Lions are at stopping the run, they are equally as bad at limiting opposing aerial attacks. Stafford has a fully healthy gamut of pass-catchers available, so I'm expecting around 300 yards and at least two scores in this one. That would be a steal at both of his prices.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,700
Matchup: vs. Los Angeles Rams (28th vs. opposing QBs - DK)
The reasons I stated above for Stafford basically all apply to Goff here, except he finds himself at home, which is hugely positive for his fantasy outlook. The former first-overall pick has the highest differential in home/road splits across the NFL at the quarterback position. Goff has averaged 14.5 points on the road vs. 21.4 points at home. Los Angeles has also been stout against the run -- allowing the second fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs per DraftKings. They are fairly average in other rush defensive metrics such as total yards/touchdowns allowed and YPC, but I expect Goff to be throwing quite a bit in this one if the Lions want to pull off the victory.
This game also features the highest playoff round total at 51.5, which gives the Lions the second-highest implied team total. With a lot of people likely choosing Dak Prescott as the flashy QB option, Goff is much cheaper and could wind up with similar stats to the Cowboys' signal-caller.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,200
Matchup: vs. Philadelphia (31st vs. opposing QBs - DK)
Sensing a trend here? It's all about the matchups for me when looking at QB options this week, and none is better than the Philadelphia Eagles. A season removed from having one of the elite passing defenses in the league, this year has been a different story for the Birds. Despite having three All-Pro players in their secondary, Philly ranks second-to-last in both yards allowed per game and touchdowns conceded, as well as dead-last in attempts faced. This unit takes the meaning of "pass-funnel" to a whole other level.
On the other side of the ball, Mayfield has been a pleasant surprise in the fantasy world this year, finishing as the QB10 overall after putting up 10 performances of QB15 or better in 2023. He's a gunslinger, and will not be afraid to air it out against this extremely vulnerable secondary at home on Monday night. I still think Stafford and Goff are safer options, but if you really want some savings in order to spend up at other positions, Baker is a fine option.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Wild Card Round
James Cook, Buffalo Bills | DK: $6,600 | FD: $7,100
Matchup: vs. Pittsburgh (28th vs. opposing RBs - FD)
Running back, especially in the NFL playoffs, is easily the hardest position to find sleepers/value in. Most of the time contestants chose the same guys, and there's only a handful of starter-worthy options. Cook makes for an intriguing play for a couple of reasons. The extremely low over/under (35) might scare people away, but guys with lower roster percentages that also have some paths to success are usually the ones to target.
This one could be a snow game, which almost always boosts the value of whichever running backs are featured. That would be Cook, who has seen his usage skyrocket since Joe Brady took over as OC back in Week 11. The Bills are also currently 10 point favorites, meaning game script should be extremely positive for Buffalo and their running game. They should be up comfortably for most of this game, so they will likely rely on Cook to salt it away. We should see a heavy dose of the UGA product in this one. Just hold onto the ball, James!
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,800
Matchup: vs. Green Bay (29th vs. opposing RBs - FD)
If you were one of the people that was all in on Pollard this year, I'm sorry. He was one of the bigger disappointments in fantasy, with a half-PPR finish of RB15 vs. an RB6 ADP. Pollard wasn't necessarily losing you weeks, but he sure as hell wasn't winning you them either.
Regular-season fantasy is not the same as DFS, though. I like Pollard in Wild Card weekend for a couple of reasons here. He's seen 19 opportunities in each of the past two games, which tells me that the Cowboys are still committed to him as the surefire lead back. Dallas is a seven-point home favorite, with the highest implied team total (29) on the slate. Pollard is also tied with CeeDee Lamb with the highest odds to score a TD at -160.
I think the disappointment of Pollard's season may carry over into the DFS slate, which could lead to some major value extraction here. With Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco (DK: $6,400 | FD: $7,800) potentially the heaviest rostered back on the weekend, I like the pivot to Pollard, which also allows for some cost savings.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers | DK: $5,100, FD: $5,600
Matchup: at Buffalo (17th vs. opposing RBs - DK)
I don't like many players in this one for DFS purposes. Lowest playoff over/under since 2012, with forecasts now predicting 50+ mph wind gusts and a foot of snow, this one is not shaping up to be very fantasy-friendly whatsoever. Although, like Cook above, I do see some value in Warren here.
The Steelers were lucky to sneak into the playoffs and are double-digit underdogs on the road. Even with the conditions, it's likely the Bills will be ahead by quite a bit, which would force Pittsburgh into obvious passing situations. That's where Warren thrives. Especially if the wind gusts hold true, it will be especially hard to throw the ball downfield, potentially turning this into checkdown city for the dynamic playmaker. Warren should see enough volume to warrant his low $5,100 salary.
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Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Wild Card Round
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DK: $6,900, FD: $8,400
Matchup: vs. Philadelphia (32nd vs. opposing WRs - DK)
I went back and forth on whether or not to include Evans in this column just based on his higher cost, but with Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb being auto-pushed into most lineups, the upside and cost-savings relative to those top options really intrigue me here.
Aside from Tampa Bay ranking 32nd against opposing fantasy wide receivers, Evans has feasted at home. Just take a look at his splits.
Home: Eight games, 44 receptions for 823 yards and 7 TDs
Away: Nine games, 35 receptions for 432 yards and 6 TDS
Even if the Eagles opt to have Darius Slay shadow Evans, the former first-team All-Pro is not the player he once was, ranking outside the top 50 DBs in PFF's coverage grade for 2023. Baker Mayfield should be airing it out to his favorite target quite a bit come Monday night.
Demarcus Robinson, Los Angeles Rams | DK: $3,600, FD: $6,300
Matchup: at Detroit (30th vs. opposing WRs - DK)
Now for some very low-cost options that possess upside as well. Long-time Chief Demarcus Robinson has come out of nowhere to put a claim on the WR3 position in Los Angeles. After seeing an average snap share of 6% through the first 11 weeks of 2023, Robinson has seen those numbers rapidly ascend of late. He's been a force in the final stretch of the year, recording an average of 15.6 points from Weeks 13-17. Put this against his average salary of $3,660, and you have five straight games of exceeding expectations.
It's important to note that Robinson's cost on FanDuel (even relative to the $60,000 salary) is much higher than DraftKings, so he does bring less value there. I still think he can get you 50+ yards and has more touchdown upside than any other option near his price point.
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,200
Matchup: vs. Los Angeles (25th vs. opposing WRs - DK)
The breakout has to come at some point right? Why not in the first round of the playoffs in a game that should see all types of scoring from both offenses? The jury is still out on whether J-M0 can be a consistent game-breaker on a week-to-week basis, but it sure does feel like deliberations are wrapping up here soon, and spoiler alert: They aren't favoring the speedster.
The Alabama product and former No. 12 overall pick is exactly the type of player that is so intriguing for DFS. He's always dirt-cheap, but it's because his target volume is so low, which has not led to any sort of consistent production. Williams has only outperformed his salary-based projections twice this year, but both times were against below-average passing defenses. The Lions will certainly take a few shots with him in his game and all it takes is one play for him to pay off. This is a low-risk, high-reward play.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Wild Card Round
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,000
Matchup: at Houston (27th vs. opposing TEs - DK)
I really don't understand why Njoku's number remains so low on DraftKings given the incredible run he's been on over the past four weeks. The veteran tight end has put up 23.6 points per game in that span, against an average cost of $4,950. Njoku also ranks eighth league-wide in target volume since Week 11, clearly showing a strong rapport with quarterback Joe Flacco. Because of these factors, he'll undoubtedly be a popular play, but there's not a single other tight end on the slate that provides the value of Njoku given his cost.
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys | DK: $4,700 FD: $6,200
Matchup: vs. Green Bay (24th vs. opposing TEs - FD)
Another breakout star at the position in 2023, Ferguson has been a steady presence at tight end for most of the season. Green Bay's defense has been poor almost across the board, and tight end has been no exception. Over the past four weeks, the Packers are giving up 49 receiving yards per game to the position, and allowed Johnny Mundt (yes, Johnny Mundt) and Tucker Kraft to both hit pay dirt.
I like Ferguson a lot mainly because of the game's high point total (50.5) and the fact that he is tied for third in the NFL in red zone targets this season, regardless of position. Many will pay up for Kelce/Njoku, so pivoting to Ferguson nets around $1000 in savings. This allows for a lot of lineup flexibility, while also providing a considerable amount of touchdown upside to boot. Ferguson (+165) has higher odds as an anytime TD scorer than Njoku (+185).
Team Defense NFL DFS Value Plays - Wild Card Round
Kansas City Chiefs | DK: $2,900, FD: $4,000
Matchup: vs. Miami (16th - DK)
-30 degree wind-chill. Potential for snow. That's all you need to know here. The Dolphins have lost 10 in a row when the kickoff temp is below 40. Well, this one is shaping up to be one of the coldest games in NFL history with the official kickoff temp shaping up to be sub-zero. Take that and pair it with a Miami offense that hasn't put up more than 20 points since Week 14, and you have wonderful value with a Chiefs unit that is priced as the fifth cheapest on the slate.
Houston Texans | DK: $3,000, FD: $3,500
Matchup: vs. Cleveland (27th - DK)
While the Bills will likely score the most fantasy points of any defense this weekend, I rarely like to go for the top-priced options at this position just due to the variability and low ceiling. It's true that the Texans were gashed by Cleveland at home only three weeks ago, but this unit has been playing much better in their past two outings, having only allowed a total of 20 points and combining for seven sacks.
I don't see either offense putting up a ton of points in this one, which places both defensive units on the radar for DFS. Joe Flacco has been a revelation for the Cleveland Browns, but his massive yardage totals have overshadowed the fact that he also leads the NFL in interceptions since he took over quarterbacking duties in Week 13. The budget can get tight when trying to finalize your lineup, and it may be worth going with the cheaper option in this game.
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