RADIO
Week 4 was the week of the chalk running backs as Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams went off (CMC with the 50-burger on DK). Josh Allen led all QBs with 39.5 DK points as he tossed four touchdowns and ran in another. Three of those touchdowns were to Stefon Diggs, who finished second only to A.J. Brown who had a monster game of his own for the Eagles against Washington. It's time to turn the page to Week 5, which will feature our first set of byes (Browns, Seahawks, Bucs, and Chargers) and therefore will be a slightly smaller slate than we have been used to so far.
This year, I am launching a "first look" article that should drop every Tuesday. This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information to come in during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, October 8. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week, but I am hoping that you find it helpful when starting your weekly research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get my DFS cheat sheets and plays all season long. Use promo code THUNDERDAN to let them know I sent you!
Week 5 Vegas Totals and Team Data
Every week we will be looking at the top implied team totals for the main slate. We have another London game at 9:30 A.M., so no Bills or Jaguars on the main slate. The Sunday night game features a huge NFC showdown between the Cowboys and 49ers, while the Monday night game is Green Bay at Las Vegas.
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 5: Main Slate Only
- Dolphins - 30.25
- Chiefs - 29.25
- Eagles - 27.5
- Lions - 27
- Bengals - 24
- Vikings - 23.75
No rest for the wounded as the Giants now have to head to Miami to take on the #1 DVOA offense in football. The Chiefs were held in check by the Jets last week, but now get to pick on the Vikings secondary. And despite their struggles so far, the Bengals still have a top-5 implied total as they get the Arizona Cardinals this week.
2023 Top-Scoring Teams Through Four Games: Points Per Game
- Dolphins - 37.5
- Eagles - 29.5
- Lions - 26.5
- Chiefs - 25.8
- Broncos- 25
Yes, the 1-3 Broncos are a top-5 scoring team on this slate (mainly because five of the other highest-scoring teams in the league are not on the slate, they are actually #10 overall in scoring offense)
2023 Stingiest Defenses Through Four Games: Points Allowed Per Game
- Ravens - 14.5
- Chiefs - 15.0
- Titans - 17.5
- Saints - 19
- Falcons - 19.3
- Texans - 19.8
I will also point out that we are missing Dallas, Buffalo, San Francisco, Cleveland, and Tampa from the main slates, so this list has more than a few "okay" defenses on it this week.
High Powered Offenses: Most Total Yards Through Four Games
- Dolphins - 511.0
- Chiefs - 393.0
- Rams - 392.8
- Eagles - 392.0
- Lions - 386.3
- Vikings - 370.8
Week 5 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. With three weeks of games now under our belt, let's look just at 2023 data here and I will be citing specifically DVOA data courtesy of FTN for the passing and rushing matchups.
Top-Five Matchups for Passing Offenses (2023 data)
(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)
- Dolphins (1) vs. Giants (29)
- Texans (5) vs. Falcons (27)
- Chiefs (7) @ Vikings (20)
- Lions (4) vs. Panthers (11)
- Cardinals (6) vs. Bengals (19)
Yes, Josh Dobbs and the Arizona Cardinals have the sixth-best-rated passing offense through four weeks - that is not a typo!
Top-Five Matchups for Rushing Offenses (2023 data)
(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)
- Lions (6) vs. Panthers (32)
- Eagles (3) @ Rams (24)
- Cardinals (5) vs. Bengals (30)
- Falcons (10) vs. Texans (28)
- Ravens (4) @ Steelers (14)
The Cardinals are here AGAIN! They are three-point underdogs here at home and have put up a fight each week, even when they were clearly overmatched. This is a team we should clearly have some interest in for DFS this week, the Bengals have been really bad.
2022 Top-Five DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Broncos (Z. Wilson), Dolphins (Jones), Colts (Tannehill), Cardinals (Burrow), Eagles (Stafford)
RB - Broncos (Hall), Cardinals (Mixon), Panthers (Montgomery), Steelers (Edwards), Texans (Robinson)
WR - Vikings (Moore/Rice), Steelers (Flowers), Eagles (Nacua), Broncos (G. Wilson), Colts (Hopkins)
TE - Jets (Trautman), Eagles (Higbee), Lions (Hurst), Broncos (Conklin), Bengals (Ertz)
DEF - Giants (MIA), Patriots (NO), Falcons (HOU), Panthers (DET), Vikings (KC)
Week 5 DFS Salary and Injury Analysis
The Cheap Stack section has been pretty useful so far this week. While I didn't have Fields-Kmet-Moore on my list last week, my good friend and fellow RotoBaller analyst Mark Kieffler did in his premium stacks piece and he finished third in the DraftKings Milly Maker. Great work, Mark! Get a premium pass and read Mark's column every week all season long!
Let's roll with DraftKings pricing this week, here are some combos that I am eyeing.
- Gibbs - Brown (10.2k)
- Jones - W. Robinson (18.8k)
- Z. Wilson - G. Wilson (10.9k)
- R. Wilson - Sutton (11.1k)
- Stroud - Collins (11.6k)
The Jets combo is really interesting against this terrible Broncos defense. I also think that Stroud continues to be underpriced with how well he plays, we just have to figure out if it's a Nico or Tank week (and maybe just stack him with both - though that has only worked one time so far)
Injury Situations to Monitor This Week
QB: Matthew Stafford has a minor injury but is expected to play. Kenny Pickett looks to have avoided a major injury and is set to practice tomorrow. If he can't go then Mitch Trubisky will get the nod under center. I am not sure it matters either way as this Pittsburgh offense has been disgusting.
RB: Saquon Barkley could return this week for the Giants, and boy do they need him after getting bludgeoned again last night. Kyren Williams has a bruised hip, but is coming off another huge week and saw 28 touches in their win. The matchup against the Eagles will be a tough one, however.
Javonte Williams left last week's game in the first quarter and never returned, leaving many of us with only two points in our DFS lineups. He seems to be okay, however, so don't fire up McGlaughlin or Perine just yet.
WR: Tee Higgins is battling a rib injury after leaving last week's game early, his status is unknown this early in the week. Treylon Burks missed last week's game for the Titans, so monitor his status on those midweek practice reports.
TE: Pat Freiermuth is "very doubtful" this week for Pittsburgh, so we should see some Connor Heyward and maybe some snaps for their rookie out of Georgia, Darnell Washington. Juwan Johnson left last week's game early and Tyler Higbee seems to be okay after suffering a thumb injury of his own.
Pay attention to who practices Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday this week there is simply no way of knowing this early in the week who else might pop up on injury reports.
Week 5 Interesting Stats
David Montgomery's 34 touches last week were six more than the next closest running back (Kyren Williams) as he had 32 carries and two catches against the Packers. This week he gets the 32nd-ranked run defense from Carolina.
A.J. Brown led all receivers in air yards last week with 212, which was 63 more than the next closest player (Josh Palmer). It's been very clear the last two weeks that Jalen Hurts wants to get the ball down the field to his best playmaking receiver.
Justin Jefferson did it again, going over 20 DK points for the fourth straight week. The only other player to score 20+ in every single game this season is Christian McCaffrey. Jefferson had a ridiculous 50% target share last week as the Vikings only threw the ball 19 times in their win over the Panthers.
Rookie Anthony Richardson is averaging 23.4 DraftKings points per game, which is more than Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes. He's doing that despite leaving one of his three starts early (after playing only about a quarter against Houston).
The Miami Dolphins have the #1 overall DVOA offense while being #1 in both rushing and passing ranks. The Bills slowed them down last week a bit, but they now get to feast on a Giants unit that has been dominated all season.
Alright, that's it for my Week 5 data dump! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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