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Welcome to the Week 7 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin for the 2024 NFL season, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this seventh main slate of the 2024 campaign, I'm glad to report that value-salary players are abundant on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, here are a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are, therefore, suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash-game plays while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players who are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Matthew Stafford, LAR vs. LVR | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $22
Stafford is refreshed coming off a bye week and appears set to get one of his two key weapons in Cooper Kupp back from injured reserve. As if those weren't already a pair of sizable advantages, there's also the matter of the matchup, which is a favorable one considering the issues Las Vegas has had slowing teams down. The Raiders have given up 163 points through six games, along with an 8:2 TD:INT.
Las Vegas is also allowing an elevated 68.7 percent completion rate over the last three games, along with 9.7 yards per completion per road game on the season. The Raiders have been effective about keeping plays in front of them for the most part, but the fact they've been very ineffective getting their hands on the ball and have played a style that's usually limited passers to attacking the short-to-intermediate areas could favor Stafford if he has Kupp to complement the likes of Jordan Whittington, Demarcus Robinson and Colby Parkinson.
Matthew Stafford is all the way back. He's been putting on a clinic every single week. pic.twitter.com/WcMrrHgKge
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) October 18, 2023
Tyler Huntley | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $21
Huntley is set for what could be his final start for the time being, as Tua Tagovailoa appears to have a good chance of returning from injured reserve in Week 8. The mobile signal-caller looked appreciably better in his second start -- against the Patriots in Week 5 -- and he's now had the benefit of the bye to further digest Miami's playbook and build rapport with his talented top receiving duo.
Then there's the matter of the opponent, with the Colts checking in allowing 272.7 passing yards per home game, along with a 70.0 percent completion rate on the season overall. Moreover, Indianapolis has conceded a healthy 10.4 yards per completion, including 11.3 yards over the last three. That trouble preventing chunk plays is a particularly bad fit when facing Miami, considering the presence of pass-catching targets for Huntley such as Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane, among others.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Kirk Cousins, ATL vs. SEA | DK: $6,300, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $27
- Andy Dalton, CAR at WAS | DK: $5,200, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $24
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Running Back DFS Value Plays
Chuba Hubbard, CAR at WAS | DK: $6,500, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $28
The salary algorithms appear to still be underestimating Hubbard's to an extent, much to our benefit as DFS players. The fourth-year pro has been the heart and soul of the Panthers offense during a very difficult start to the season for the team as a whole. Hubbard is in the midst of a particularly productive stretch, having averaged 101.8 rushing yards and 4.5 receptions per contest over the last four games.
Hubbard has 108 total touches over six games, a robust amount that's afforded him a safe floor. The matchup against the Commanders sets up well for him to continue his recent success, as Washington is surrendering 137.7 rushing yards per game, including 153.7 per contest in the last three. The Commanders have also surrendered 5.3 yards per carry to running backs and 23 receptions to the position as well, making this a highly appealing scenario for the versatile Hubbard.
The #Panthers should give Chuba Hubbard 35 touches a game and see what happens. pic.twitter.com/FNXzt386uu
— Dan Tonna (@dan_tonna) October 16, 2024
Tony Pollard, TEN at BUF | DK: $6,300, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $27
Much like Hubbard, Pollard has been an oasis in the desert of the Titans' season thus far. The versatile veteran has proven a quick and effective fit in head coach Brian Callahan's offense, recording 421 total yards and three rushing touchdowns in his first five games as a member of the Titans. What's more, Pollard has done it with a poor run-blocking offensive line and without defenses having to respect his team's passing game.
The Bills have been generous against the run, allowing 140.2 rushing yards per game, including a whopping 162 per contest in the last three games. Buffalo has allowed 4.9 yards per carry to running back specifically, as well as an NFL-high 41 receptions and 368 receiving yards to the position and a co-league-high three receiving TDs.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Kareem Hunt, KC at SF | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,700, Yahoo: $26
DraftKings-Yahoo Special:
- Bijan Robinson, ATL at CAR | DK: $7,100, Yahoo: $29
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Jordan Addison, MIN vs. DET | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $25
One of the marquee games of the Week 7 main slate is certainly the NFC North showdown between the Lions and Vikings, and Minnesota should be refreshed coming out of a bye week. While Justin Jefferson does have a very favorable history against Detroit, Addison is still carrying a bargain salary and certainly has plenty of upside in his own right, putting him firmly in consideration for what should be a highly competitive matchup.
Reminder that Jordan Addison posted 70-911-10 as a rookie with Mullens, Passtronaut, and The Mormon Missile throwing to him most of the year. (and without JJ taking coverage away from him)pic.twitter.com/DMpba02P5n
— Purple FTW! Podcast (@PurpleForTheWin) March 22, 2024
Tyler Lockett, SEA at ATL | DK: $5,300, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $22
The prevailing thought coming into the season was that Lockett was on his way out of the No. 2 receiver role due to the expected emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. However, Lockett has hung on to the job through the first six games, running over 40 routes in the last three and recording at least four receptions in all but one game. Lockett did pop up on the injury report with a knee issue Thursday, so that will have to be monitored to make sure he's not in danger of missing what could be a very fruitful matchup.
Jaylen Waddle, MIA at IND | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $19
Waddle makes for an intriguing larger-field tournament stacking partner with Huntley if you have solid risk tolerance. To say that Waddle's salaries are unlikely to be this low again this season is likely a very safe declaration, and both the volume and the matchup could up the chances of the veteran delivering very strong returns on investment.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Xavier Legette, CAR at WAS | DK: $5,100, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $18
- Jerry Jeudy, CLE vs. CIN | DK: $4,800, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $16
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. SEA | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $15
Pitts still arguably isn't being utilized to his full potential, but there are some signs that new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is starting to develop a better grasp of the uniquely talented tight end's skills than former head coach Arthur Smith ever had. Pitts has generated a 10-158 line on 13 targets over the last two contests, recording a 40+ yard catch in the process.
The Seahawks happen to come into Week 7 having allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends (344), along with the fourth-most receptions (33) to the position. Seattle has also yielded a pair of receiving TDs to TEs, and the 'Hawks have a surrendered 257.7 passing yards per game at an NFC-high 12.9 yards per completion over the last three games.
Kyle Pitts is the only TE in the league to have 2 receptions of 50 yards or more https://t.co/S1LQkCOFaJ pic.twitter.com/IAysL3cgmM
— Tre’Shon (@tre3shon) October 14, 2024
David Njoku, CLE vs. CIN | DK: $4,100, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $17
Njoku's salaries are eye-catching in and of themselves, but the fact they are what they are on a week when Amari Cooper has been traded to the Bills makes them even more enticing. The veteran tight end has had a frustrating season to date, with an ankle injury suffered in Week 1 costing him three games. Njoku has also had to deal with the inconsistencies of the disappointing Deshaun Watson, but the talented pass catcher did log a season-high seven targets in Week 6 against the Commanders.
The opposing Bengals have had defensive issues all season, and they've allowed a 26-277-3 line to tight ends specifically. The three touchdown grabs tie them with multiple teams for second most surrendered to the position, and Cincy is also conceding an elevated (for tight ends) 10.7 yards per catch to TEs. Njoku could take on more of a downfield role with Cooper gone, considering he's recorded double-digit YPC figures in each of the previous four seasons.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Zach Ertz, WAS vs. CAR | DK: $3,900, FD: $5,100, Yahoo: $12
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