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Welcome to the Week 5 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin for the 2024 NFL season, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this fifth main slate of the 2024 campaign, I'm glad to report that value-salary players are abundant on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash-game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players who are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Brock Purdy, SF vs. ARI | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,700, Yahoo: $27
Purdy has already provided a couple of elevated fantasy-point tallies befitting higher salaries, as he's recorded over 18 fantasy points on both DK and FD twice, including a 25+ game. The third-year star is in a very favorable position to stay hot this week for a number of reasons, with the two biggest being the matchup and the fact his array of skill-position weapons are as healthy as they've been in some time.
The opposing Cardinals have allowed 10.3 yards per completion, including 12.3 in their one road game thus far. Arizona is also surrendering a league-high 78.7 percent completion rate, along with eight total TDs (five passing, three rushing) to quarterbacks through four games. Finally, consider the Cards have also conceded a co-league high 11 red-zone TDs (co-league-high seven through the air), while Purdy already has 23 red-zone opportunities (20 pass attempts, three rush attempts) this season.
Brock Purdy Really Has Raised His Ceiling.
A reasonable person could say that Brock Purdy is playing much better than last year when he was in the MVP race. 🤷♂️
All 22 QB Breakdown: Brock Purdy #FTTB pic.twitter.com/xvjxHY9gn5
— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) October 2, 2024
Geno Smith, SEA vs. NYG | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $27
Smith is another quarterback sporting very reasonable salaries that has already delivered results befitting a heftier investment. The veteran signal-caller has already exceeded 20 fantasy points on both DK and FD twice in the first four games, and he has 18.8 on those two sites in a third contest. Smith is playing on a day of less rest than usual this week, but he's coming off having thrown for a season-high 395 yards against the Lions in that Monday night Week 4 contest, a game where he netted 25.6 DK and FD points and 21.6 Yahoo points.
Smith has thrown for a touchdown in each game as well and completed over 70.0 percent of his passes in each of his first three contests before generating a solid 67.9 percent completion rate against Detroit. The opposing Giants could make for good targets, as New York is allowing the third-highest completion rate (72.7) and a 6:1 TD:INT to QBs in the first four games of the season.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Bo Nix, DEN vs. LVR | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $22
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@BaronZito973 @mb_guruDFS #OTC there are others and you know who you are and I love you all for the help! pic.twitter.com/psRCDbCqqL— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Jerome Ford, CLE at WAS | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $21
With some teams on bye and a London game taking the Vikings and Jets off the main slate as well, there's a narrower pool of potential value options to work with overall. That helps thrust Ford, who's been adequate but not particularly remarkable, into value-play territory at running back against a vulnerable Commanders defense this week.
Washington checks in allowing 136.5 rushing yards per game at an NFC-high 5.3 yards per carry. The Commanders have also surrendered three rushing TDs to RBs over the first four games, as well as an 18-144 line through the air to the position that implies Ford, who's a capable pass catcher (59 catches in 21 career regular-season games) and has two seven-target games already in '24, could complement his production nicely in that area.
Man, D'Andre Swift looked dynamic on replay. If Bears can get him into the second level on a more consistent basis, he can be a weapon.
165 total yards and a long TD run. Huge performance. pic.twitter.com/FOwECaFihX
— Blake (@SoldierFieldBlg) September 30, 2024
D'Andre Swift, CHI vs. CAR | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $22
Many thought Swift's first noteworthy performance as a member of the Bears would come in Week 3 against what appeared to be a highly targetable Colts run defense, but the surge in numbers actually came a week late against the Rams. Swift compiled 165 total yards and a rushing touchdown on 23 touches, and he's a solid bet to carry over the momentum into this week against a Panthers front seven now missing its best player in Shaq Thompson (Achilles).
Carolina already checks in surrendering an elevated 148.8 rushing yards per game at 4.6 yards per attempt. The Panthers are also tied for second with six rushing TDs surrendered to running backs, and they've also yielded an 18-129-1 line through the air to the position. Swift is coming off a seven-catch, 72-yard game in Week 4 and is the unquestioned lead back on a home favorite, making a rock-solid value play despite the fact his roster rate could certainly be high this week.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Josh Jacobs, GB at LAR | DK: $6,400, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $27
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Zay Flowers, BAL at CIN | DK: $6,400, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $24
It's always prudent if playing in large-field tournaments to take a bit of a leap of faith on a talented, fast player with a secure role that's been underperforming in recent games. That naturally sets up the possibility of a much lower rostering rate than you'd normally deal with with respect to that player, and if you're correct in your assessment of a resurgent week, you'll be way ahead of the field.
Flowers has disappointed significantly with a combined 4-30-1 line on six targets in the last two contests, but his 7-91-1 line on 11 targets in Week 2 against the Raiders is a good example of what he's capable of providing at his salaries. This divisional clash against the Bengals figures to be one Baltimore will need to remain very aggressive in given the firepower on the opposite sideline, and Cincinnati checks in having surrendered a 76.6 percent completion rate in its first two home games and 12.0 yards per reception and four TDs to receivers so far.
TOUCHDOWN ZAY FLOWERS!!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/vvOzEjxA5u
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) January 28, 2024
Brandon Aiyuk, SF vs. ARI| DK: $6,300, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $23
Continuing the theme of recently underachieving talented wideouts that won't break your bank, Aiyuk certainly fits the bill and could make for an excellent stacking partner with Purdy if you're looking to capitalize on the vulnerable Cardinals. Aiyuk is undoubtedly getting increasingly antsy for a breakout effort that can justify the lucrative extension he haggled with the 49ers all summer over, as he's topped out at five receptions and 48 receiving yards in terms of single-game highs thus far.
As already detailed in Purdy's entry, the Cardinals have allowed a high rate of completions despite also surrendering a fairly elevated yards-per-completion figure as well. Meanwhile, Arizona has conceded a 77.7 percent catch rate to wideouts, along with four receiving TDs to the position. Moreover, the Cardinals' aforementioned issues with defending the pass in the red zone could certainly benefit Aiyuk, who's still searching for his first TD of the campaign.
Josh Downs, IND at JAX | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $17
The Colts' starting quarterback situation remains in flux for Week 5, but whether it's Anthony Richardson (hip) or Joe Flacco under center, Downs makes a lot of sense at his highly reasonable salaries. The second-year wideout worked back into action during his delayed Week 3 season debut against the Bears with a 3-22 line over 31 snaps, but he was exponentially more involved in Week 4 against the Steelers while recording 22.2 DK/18.2 FD and Yahoo points on an 8-82-1 line on nine targets while mostly working with Flacco.
The presence of the Jaguars and their heavy man-coverage rates make Downs even more appealing, and Jacksonville checks in allowing an AFC-high 272.8 passing yards per game, along with an AFC-high 11.4 yards per completion. The Jags are also giving up 44.3 DK/34.2 FD points per game to WRs, and they've conceded 12.7 yards per reception and four touchdowns to the position. Downs is already being targeted on over 23.0 percent of his routes through his first two games, and he could well overdeliver on these very reasonable salaries given the matchup.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Brian Thomas Jr., JAX vs. IND | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $26
- Romeo Doubs, GB at LAR | DK: $5,400, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $18
- Rome Odunze, CHI vs. CAR | DK: $5,300, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $20
DK-FanDuel Special:
- Jayden Reed, GB at LAR | DK: $6,500, FD: $7,200
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Tucker Kraft, GB at LAR | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $13
Kraft appears to be the clear No. 1 tight end in Green Bay at the moment over Luke Musgrave, and with the tight-end value pool especially shallow this week with fewer teams on the main slate, he's the one option I feel safe recommending. The second-year pro broke out during Jordan Love's Week 4 return, posting a 6-53-1 line on nine targets on his way to 16.3 DK/12.3 FD and Yahoo points.
The Rams gave up 288 passing yards to the 49ers in their one home game thus far this season, and a 17-207-1 line to tight ends overall across four games. Los Angeles has also conceded nine red-zone touchdowns, including four through the air, while Kraft is already averaging a red-zone target per game, which puts him halfway to the eight he logged during his rookie season over 17 regular-season games. He's been targeted on over 22.0 percent of his routes in two of his first four contests, and Love should be less rusty right from the onset this week.
Good morning to everyone who got Tucker Kraft off the waiver wire this week!
— PlayerProfiler NFL (@Profiler_NFL) October 2, 2024
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Colby Parkinson, LAR vs. GB | DK: $3,700, FD: $5,100, Yahoo: $10
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