NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 11 Bargain Bin for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo Includes Tua Tagovailoa, Nick Chubb, Jaylen Waddle, more

Welcome to the Week 11 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin for the 2024 NFL season, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.

Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this 11th main slate of the 2024 campaign, I'm glad to report that value-salary players are abundant on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.

In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.

NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro

Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, here are a few particulars about format and content.

The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!

Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are, therefore, suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash-game plays while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.

Typically, I’ll suggest players who are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”

This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.

The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.

Quarterback DFS Value Plays

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. LVR | DK: $6,000, FD: $8,000, Yahoo: $25

Tua continues to defy the odds this season after having overcome what some thought may have been a career-ending concussion, returning for the last three games to complete 77.7 percent of his passes while posting a 4:1 TD:INT. The Dolphins are only 1-2 in that span, but Tagovailoa has averaged a solid 14.1 DK/13.8 FD/13.5 Yahoo points per game during the sample and figures to have worked off any rust by this point.

The 2020 first-round pick is now back home in Week 11 and facing a Raiders defense that's had its moments this season but also missed plenty of tackles. Vegas has allowed a 15:5 TD:INT and a 68.0 percent completion rate over the last three games. The Raiders have also done a poor job getting to the quarterback (17 sacks in nine games), and if Tua has time to scan the field, he could certainly wreak plenty of havoc considering the weapons around him.

new video putting Tua Tagovailoa’s development into perspective, and explaining why MNF vs the #Rams was a positive for the #Dolphins QB pic.twitter.com/YHdhEXvQm4

— Tyler DeSena (@DeSenaSports) November 13, 2024

Drake Maye, NE vs. LAR | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $24

Maye has offered Patriots coaches and fans plenty of reasons for optimism during his four non-injury-shortened starts, completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 909 yards with a 7:5 TD:INT, and adding 175 rushing yards at a stellar 8.8 yards per attempt. The rookie first-round pick's mobility has been outstanding and helped supplement his fantasy production nicely, as Maye has averaged 18.7 DK/18.2 FD/16.9 Yahoo points per game in that span.

The Rams will be playing on a short week and have struggled to prevent chunk gains through the air throughout the season, allowing an NFC-high 11.7 yards per completion. Los Angeles is also surrendering an elevated 67.8 percent completion rate in the last three games, as well as the sixth-most passing touchdowns on the season (16). Maye has already thrown multiple TD passes in two of his four starts, and he could continue get greater access to the playbook the more he plays.

ALSO CONSIDER:

• Aaron Rodgers, NYJ vs. IND | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $22

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Running Back DFS Value Plays

David Montgomery, DET vs JAX | DK: $6,500, FD: $8,100, Yahoo: $26      

Montgomery continues to be a consistent presence in the red zone and is attached to a highly effective offense that's committed to the run, making him a consideration each time his salaries are reasonable. The latter is once again the case in Week 11, and in the case of this particular game, D-Mont is also in position to benefit in terms of workload from the fact his team is a massive home favorite.

The Jaguars also present as a very appealing matchup by the numbers, making it an even more attractive scenario. Jacksonville has surrendered 192 rushing yards per contest over the last three games at 4.5 yards per carry, and they've allowed eight rushing TDs to RBs on the season. The Jags have also conceded a 58-463-4 receiving line to running backs, and although Montgomery isn't always involved in the passing game these days, he is averaging a career-high 10.3 yards per catch on his 18 receptions.

Name a better duo than David Montgomery and touchdowns.

I’ll wait. pic.twitter.com/3ajk6bDaJm

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 11, 2024

Nick Chubb, CLE at NO | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $17

Chubb has now played three games since his return from last year's gruesome knee injury, and the talented back has already proven capable of handling an ample workload (44 total touches). Now, Chubb has had a very well-timed bye week to recover from that initial shock to his system and get his surgically repaired knee a bit stronger ahead of what profiles as one of the best matchups for running backs in the league.

Even in a spirited win in interim head coach Darren Rizzi's debut, New Orleans still saw the Falcons' Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combine for 175 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries, the latest example of the Saints' struggles to stop the run. New Orleans is now allowing 182.6 rushing yards per home game and doing so at a league-high 6.2 yards per carry. The Saints have also given up the second-most rushing TDs to RBs (12) and a 40-314-1 receiving line to the position, giving Chubb multiple paths to fantasy success.

ALSO CONSIDER:

• Audric Estime, DEN vs. ATL | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,400, Yahoo: $11

Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays

Jaylen Waddle, MIA vs. LVR | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $16     

Waddle is undeniably a tough sell to many DFS players at this point, as even Tua's recent return hasn't really resulted in the fourth-year wideout seeing his vast potential unlocked. Nevertheless, there have been some signs of life over the last three games, as Waddle has a 7-102 line on 12 targets in two of those contests and a touchdown catch in the other game in the sample.

The 2021 first-round pick naturally hasn't just lost his vast skill set overnight, but his struggles this season have resulted in a very welcome salary drop across the board. Waddle's run-after-catch ability combined with the Raiders' aforementioned struggles with bringing down ball carriers and propensity to keep pass plays in front of them (9.3 yards per completion allowed) could all conspire to prompt a long-overdue productive day for the shifty receiver.

Jaylen Waddle on the first drive 🤯

2 REC
55 Yards

More yards than his last 3 games combined

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/gTIMhv35bq

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) November 12, 2024

Jauan Jennings, SF vs. SEA| DK: $5,300, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $21

Jennings returned from the 49ers' Week 9 bye healthy from a hip injury, and it showed in his performance against the Buccaneers this past Sunday. The veteran wideout stepped into Brandon Aiyuk's No. 2 role with success, posting a 7-93 line on 11 targets. Jennings did pop up on the injury report Thursday due to an ankle injury, but assuming that's only minor, he once again profiles as a very viable option versus a vulnerable Seahawks secondary at his salaries.

Seattle is allowing the third-highest completion percentage on the road (71.95 percent) and 10.4 yards per completion in that split as well. The Seahawks were also spiraling in pass defense before the bye, surrendering 264.3 passing yards per game in their last three contests compared to 195 yards per contest up to that point.

Mack Hollins, BUF vs. KC | DK: $3,800, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $10

Hollins has come on over the last two games, and the chemistry between him and Josh Allen seems to build each week. The veteran wideout has a 9-116-1 line on nine targets in that span, and he'll be in position to continue seeing added opportunity during what could be a high-scoring showdown against the Chiefs.

Keon Coleman has already been ruled out for the game due to his wrist injury, while Amari Cooper appears headed for a questionable designation due his own wrist issue that has already led to a pair of absences. The Chiefs do an excellent job keeping pass plays in front of them (9.7 yards per completion allowed, including 8.2 over the last three games), but Hollins could thrive in such a scenario, considering he's averaging a modest 6.8 yards per target.

ALSO CONSIDER:

• Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. ATL | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $25
• Mike Williams, PIT vs. BAL | DK: $4,100, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $11

Tight End DFS Value Plays 

T.J. Hockenson, MIN at TEN | DK: $4,700, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $19     

Hockenson put together a successful encore to his Week 9 season debut in the Week 10 win over the Jaguars, posting an 8-72 line on nine targets in a performance that netted 15.2 DK/11.2 FD and Yahoo points. Hockenson bumped up to 38 snaps in that game, and with no apparent setbacks, he should be due for another bump in workload in a second straight interconference matchup with an AFC South opponent.

The Titans have been relatively effective against tight ends, but they are surrendering a tiny 59.9 percent catch rate to wide receivers and a much more efficient 70.9 percent figure to Hockenson's position. Sam Darnold will have to throw the ball somewhere, and if Justin Jefferson, who's been the only receiver to consistently deliver for Minnesota this season, gets double coverage on most routes, Hockenson could certainly be busy again.

It was great to see TJ Hockenson’s workload ramped up again in Week 10

🔹 9 targets
🔹 8 receptions
🔹 72 yards

🔹 24% target share

It might be too late to ‘buy low’ but he’s still a buy for me.

He’s likely going to be a Top 6 TE rest of season 📈🔥

pic.twitter.com/PyAgbcd7JC

— Matt FF Dynasty 🏈 (@MattFFDynasty) November 11, 2024

Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. IND | DK: $3,200, FD: $5,000, Yahoo: $11 

Despite the Jets' considerable struggles as a whole, Conklin has at times been a bright spot from his tight end position during his second Jets season. However, the veteran has seen a big downturn over the last two games, posting just two receptions for five yards on four targets in that span. But, in the six games prior, Conklin had generated a 24-224-2 line on 34 targets.

Conklin's salaries account for his recent decline in production, and he also happens to have a good chance at a bounce-back performance against a Colts team that's struggled to defend tight ends all season. Indy has allowed the second-most receptions (61), seventh-most receiving yards (597) and is tied for the third-most receiving TDs (five) surrendered to tight ends, resulting in 15.1 DK and 12.0 FD points per game conceded to the position.

ALSO CONSIDER:

• David Njoku, CLE at NO | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $21 
• Dawson Knox, BUF vs. KC | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,100, Yahoo: $10

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