RADIO
Welcome to the Week 1 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin for the 2024 NFL season, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this 1st main slate of the 2024 campaign, I'm glad to report value-salary players are abundant on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings, including some that are part of this year's ultra-talented rookie class.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Trevor Lawrence, JAC at MIA | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $29
Lawrence scuffled to a season that was below his standards in 2023, but he still finished with over 4,000 yards and 25 total touchdowns, including four on the ground. The 2021 first overall pick then scored the lucrative extension he sought this offseason, and although he saw Calvin Ridley depart in free agency, he gained a pair of high-upside weapons to replace him in first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. and free-agent addition Gabe Davis.
Lawrence naturally still shares the backfield with an outstanding versatile threat in Travis Etienne, and in addition to Thomas and Davis, has the trusted Christian Kirk and Evan Engram at his disposal for a lot of short and intermediate work. Throw in Lawrence's own rushing upside and his matchup against a Dolphins team that will require Jacksonville to remain aggressive and that sees Jalen Ramsey (undisclosed), Jevon Holland (undisclosed) and Jordan Poyer (thumb) sporting injury tags to begin the practice week, and the dynamic signal-caller could certainly deliver handsome returns.
Trevor Lawrence is going to have a bounce back season pic.twitter.com/F5q8YPQngY
— Joel Moran (@joelvmoran) August 28, 2024
Baker Mayfield, TB vs. WAS | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $27
Mayfield shocked the NFL world last season with a comeback campaign that saw him post career highs in passing yards (4,044) and touchdown passes (28) while even coming just three rushing yards short of a new career best in that department. The 2018 first-overall pick scored his extension this offseason as well, and he has the benefit of continuity in terms of all his primary skill-position weapons -- Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cade Otton, and Rachaad White.
Mayfield is operating a new offensive scheme following Dave Canales' departure to the Carolina Panthers, but new play-caller Liam Coen runs his own quarterback-friendly scheme that has roots in Sean McVay's offensive philosophies. Mayfield and the first-team offense looked good running the offense in limited action during the preseason, and they draw a very favorable matchup at home to open the season against a Commanders defense that surrendered an NFL-high 280 passing yards per road game at a robust 11.6 yards per completion.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Derek Carr, NO vs. CAR | DK: $5,300, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $25
DK-Only Special:
- Anthony Richardson, IND vs. HOU | $6,300
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Running Back DFS Value Plays
Jerome Ford, CLE vs. DAL | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $22
Nick Chubb will unsurprisingly open the season on the PUP list as he finishes his recovery from last year's career-threatening knee injury, meaning for the moment, Ford will resume the lead-back role he often thrived in last season. The 2022 fifth-round pick averaged a solid 12.9 DK/11.3 FD/11.6 Yahoo points per contest between Weeks 6 and 17 last season, recording 837 total scrimmage yards and six total TDs along the way while putting together a pair of 100-yard games.
Given the matchup against a big-name defense in that of the Cowboys, Ford could well be lightly rostered on such a big slate that sees plenty of casual DFS players participating since it's the first one of the regular season. However, it's worth noting Dallas finished last regular season giving up 131.0 rushing yards per road game at 4.4 yards per carry, and the Cowboys have lost some defensive pieces this offseason. They also gave up four receiving TDs to running backs, while Ford, a former wideout, is a very capable receiver, as further evidenced in the video below.
Friendly reminder Jerome Ford was a wide reciever in highschool
Watch his sluggo route at the top of the screen- the guy can legitimately run routes pic.twitter.com/ei1CZivkkX
— Mac🦬 (@tha_buffalo) September 4, 2024
Javonte Williams, DEN at SEA | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $23
Williams is another potentially "lost in the shuffle" piece this week, especially with rookie quarterback Bo Nix stealing most of the headlines in Denver as he approaches the start of the season as the starter. Yet, it's precisely because of this development that I feel Williams could be even more appealing than he already would be in this matchup and at his salary. Interestingly, the Broncos are the team in this game that many would immediately label as the weak link against the run, and Denver did indeed give up some big performances on the ground in 2023.
Yet, the Seahawks gave up the third-most rushing yards per game (146.3) at an NFC-high 5.0 yards per carry last season, and they approach the season opener with linebacker Jerome Baker (hamstring) legitimately questionable and another starter, Uchenna Nwosu out due to an MCL sprain. Williams' fantasy stock in any format has been depressed this offseason after he averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last season, but he's now another year removed from his 2022 knee injury and remains an outstanding receiver that Nix could well turn to as a safety valve in his first game under center.
DK-FD Special:
- Joe Mixon, HOU at IND | DK: $6,600, FD: $7,300
DK-Only Special:
- Rachaad White, TB vs. WAS | $6,300
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Malik Nabers, NYG vs. MIN | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $27
Nabers is the first of two explosive first-round rookies that I feel certainly have a place in your tournament or even cash game lineups right from the onset of their careers. The fleet, athletically gifted wideout has already validated the buzz around him with his summer performances, and he looks set to be the clear-cut alpha target in the Giants' passing game right out of the gate. Yes, that air attack is helmed by a frequent subject of derision of the DFS community, Daniel Jones, but it doesn't put me off Nabers in the least.
To begin with, Jones has certainly proven capable of facilitating big games from wide receivers in the past. Additionally, Jones is playing for his future right from Week 1, and the matchup against an aggressive Brian Flores-led Vikings defense could lead to some quick passing and even some deep shots opening up in one-on-one coverage.
Malik Nabers plays football in 5 days pic.twitter.com/B6izYSVEkK
— Carly (@carlymersky) September 3, 2024
Chris Godwin, TB vs. WAS | DK: $5,800, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $26
Godwin makes for a very intriguing partner with Mayfield on tournament rosters for several reasons, not the least of which is the favorable matchup against the Commanders' secondary already alluded to in his quarterback's entry earlier. Additionally, there's been plenty of talk around Bucs camp this summer about Godwin, who's fully healthy and is set to be deployed largely in a slot role that he's often thrived in before.
Even in a down year in 2023, Godwin still eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the third straight season and saw 130 targets from Mayfield. With an exciting dual-threat rookie quarterback in Jayden Daniels on the other side in this game, Tampa Bay is likely to remain aggressive on offense, and the Bucs have a solid 23.5-point projected total as of mid-week that's been on the rise since the open. Godwin's salaries are ones he's highly capable of overdelivering on, making him a very enticing option.
Tank Dell, HOU at IND | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $24
We can't exactly assume the DFS community has forgotten about Dell given the general hype around the Texans' offense, but the second-year wideout was out of sight, out of mind after he suffered a season-ending leg injury in Week 13 of his rookie 2023 campaign. However, Dell has been back to full health this summer and looked back to his explosive self, and he now has a major offseason addition, Stefon Diggs, around to help draw defensive attention from him.
Defenses will undoubtedly struggle all season in deciding who to focus on between Dell, Diggs, and Nico Collins, not to mention ancillary pass-game weapons, Joe Mixon and Dalton Schultz. The Colts, who gave up a 7-72-1 line on 10 targets to Dell back in the second game of his career last season, draw the short straw first, and they check in having allowed 240.2 passing yards per home game at 10.9 yards per completion a year ago. With this game boasting one of the highest projected totals of the slate (48.5) and Houston projected for 25.75 as of Wednesday, Dell has to be considered at his very reasonable salary.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Terry McLaurin, WAS at TB | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $26
- Diontae Johnson, CAR at NO | DK: $5,300, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $22
- Ladd McConkey, LAC vs. LVR | DK: $4,700, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $19
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Brock Bowers, LVR at LAC | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,400, Yahoo: $16
Bowers is the second rookie I'm ready to immediately kick the DFS tires on this week, and the good news is the Georgia product's foot injury is apparently a thing of the past. Head coach Antonio Pierce has confirmed Bowers' availability for the season-opening AFC West clash with the Chargers, and Bowers was indeed back at practice Wednesday. That paves the way for a player considered to perhaps be the most talented tight-end prospect in recent history to attack a Bolts defense that conceded an 85-882-5 line to tight ends last regular season.
Naturally, there's a new Jim Harbaugh-led regime in Los Angeles, but there hasn't been an inordinate amount of turnover in defensive personnel. Bowers is a generational talent that can function as an extra wide receiver, and with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers sure to command plenty of defensive resources, there could be several opportunities for Bowers to break free while working with a savvy veteran quarterback in Gardner Minshew.
Brock Bowers is back at practice and Antonio Pierce says he will play Sunday.#Raiders pic.twitter.com/pYid4a6kzy
— Logan Reever (@loganreever) September 4, 2024
Zach Ertz, WAS vs. TB | DK: $3,600, FD: $4,800, Yahoo: $12
This may admittedly be the least eye-catching name in the Week 1 set of suggestions, but Ertz could be a savvy large-field tournament value play for that very reason. The veteran tight end may be written off by some, but he's set to open the season as Washington's top option at the position while rookie Ben Sinnott acclimates to the pro game. Ertz is a savvy route runner and still has his very reliable hands, and he's now fully recovered from the knee injury that cut short his 2023 season and ended his Cardinals tenure.
Additionally, Ertz has intimate familiarity with new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury's offense from their time together in Arizona in 2021 and 2022, when the veteran tight end recorded 103 receptions for 980 yards and seven touchdowns across 21 regular-season games. And finally, consider Ertz will be facing a Bucs defense that's still running the Todd Bowles' 3-4 scheme that led to Tampa Bay surrendering a 102-1,077-7 line to tight ends in 2023.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Evan Engram, JAC at MIA | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $19
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