NFL DFS Value Plays for Wild Card Weekend

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard.

Welcome to Wild Card Weekend, Rotoballers! This season, the DFS Value Plays will look at the word "value" from all angles. Usually, it implies a player that won't cost you much of your salary on DraftKings or FanDuel. However, if I see a quarterback, running back, wide receiver, or tight end horrendously underpriced... he's going in the article.

It's the second year of a three-day Wild Card Weekend, and it's shaping up to be an epic weekend of football. Several divisional rematches, a couple of home underdogs, and many under-the-radar storylines. All the prices mentioned below will be with the Saturday through Monday slate prices. However, if you want some Showdown/Single-Game perspective, make sure to check out our coverage for every game from the six-game Wild Card Weekend.

Each week, this article will highlight the value plays who can take home the win in a cash game or tournament on the main slate and help you diversify your lineups. Ensure you're thoroughly informed before building your lineups by checking out the rest of our daily fantasy articles heading into the weekend. Then, send me a last-minute tweet @EuanOrYouOut for more advice if you have any questions before lineups lock. Good luck this week!

DFS Value Plays for Wild Card Weekend

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert at JAX ($6,600 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel)

When the Jaguars and Chargers met in Week 3, Justin Herbert was 10 days removed from a severe rib injury. It showed in his play as he was 25-for-45 with a touchdown and interception while Jacksonville waltzed to a 38-10 win. Now, three and a half months later, Herbert and his teammates are much healthier for the rematch.

Over the final six weeks of the regular season, things began to click for the Chargers. They went 4-2 down the stretch, despite Herbert not living up to his potential. Per PFF, among the 12 quarterbacks taking the field this weekend, the former-Oregon signal caller scored 3.8 points less than expected per game since Week 13. Combine some Herbert regression with the third-worst passing defense in the league, and we'll get a huge 'welcome to the playoffs' introduction for the third-year quarterback.

Daniel Jones at MIN ($5,600 DK; $7,400 FD)

The Giants didn't exactly soar into the playoffs, but they're here and have a chance against an interesting Minnesota squad. Since Week 10, New York went 3-5-1, but Daniel Jones wasn't the reason for their sub-par record. His. 20.5 DK PPG mark is the third-highest among the Wild Card quarterbacks and his 183 rushing yards over that final stretch trails only Josh Allen at the position. Minnesota concedes the fifth-most FPPG to quarterbacks, and the game owns the highest over/under at 48.5 points.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon vs. BAL ($6,800 DK; $7,900 FD)

Despite the Bengals being the defending AFC Champions, the team is playing with a chip on their shoulder and a miniature us-against-the-world intensity.

Mixon really had a coin in his glove 😂#BudLightCelly | @budlight pic.twitter.com/eg8evfvtsT

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) January 8, 2023

In his final four (completed) games, the Bengals back worked his way back from a mid-season injury and mustered 14.7 DK PPG. He was also second among all running backs with 19 catches. Cincinnati is an angry home favorite, and this game script will suit Mixon and a run-heavy attack. According to my projections, he's the fourth-best value at the position and could see a lower roster rate than the other ball carriers in this price range.

JaMycal Hasty vs. LAC ($4,600 DK; $4,900 FD)

Recommending JaMycal Hasty qualifies as a punt/value play this week, and he should only see time in your GPP lineups. Hasty is firmly Travis Etienne's backup, but he can still give us something against the Chargers on Saturday night. The journeyman has 16 carries and 10 targets over his last three games compared to 38 carries and eight targets for his backfield buddy.

The matchup for the Jaguars' running game is fantastic, as Los Angeles is porous versus the run. They allowed the sixth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs this year and the seventh-most FD PPG to the position. This game is projected as the second-highest scoring of the weekend, and there will be plenty of room for points. In addition, this Jaguars run game torched the Chargers for 145 yards and a touchdown back in Week 3.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs vs. MIA ($7,600 DK; $8,600 FD)

In a Wild Card Weekend filled with No. 1 wideouts, getting Stefon Diggs as the fifth-most expensive receiver feels like a discount. Despite playing one less game than most of his peers, Diggs ended the season with 110 catches for 1,455 yards and another 11 scores. It's his third year in a row with at least 105 catches and 150 targets within the Bills' offense, and he's become one of the premier pass catchers in the league when joined at the hip with Josh Allen.

Bills offensive DVOA vs. base D: -5.5% (21)
Bills offensive DVOA vs. nickel D: 20.6% (2)

Dolphins defensive DVOA in base: -11.6% (8)
Dolphins defensive DVOA in nickel: 8.4% (25)

You know what to do, Bills. Spread 'em.#BillsMafia #FinsUp

— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@FO_ASchatz) January 10, 2023

As we pivot to this weekend's matchup against the Dolphins, you can see the Bills will be in a good spot. Even though Diggs didn't top 60 yards in four of his final five games, he finished the year in style with seven catches for 104 yards and a touchdown against New England. The bounce-back performance should instill a ton of confidence in DFS managers to roster Diggs this weekend against a Miami team sporting a bottom-eight pass defense.

Joshua Palmer at JAX ($5,300 DK; $6,500 FD)

When writing about Justin Herbert, I mentioned the Chargers would be a healthier squad. Well... not entirely healthy. Mike Williams (back) left the season finale early, and it could open up some targets for Josh Palmer. It won't be a new role for Palmer as he's filled in on several occasions as the team's No. 2 receiver while Keenan Allen and Williams dealt with their injuries. He saw at least eight targets in seven games this season and averaged 17.02 DK PPG when reaching that benchmark.

Isaiah Hodgins vs. MIN ($4,100 DK; $6,400 FD)

In Week 13, Isaiah Hodgins played 80 percent of the offensive snaps for the New York Giants. It signified his role as a full-time starter for the team, and he's taken off since that game versus Washington. In his five games, since he hit that mark, Hodgins caught four touchdowns and put up numbers that had him on a pace for 85 catches, 850 yards, and 14 touchdowns over a whole season. Not bad value for a guy we can pick up at $4,100 on DraftKings.

In addition to his impressive breakout, his best game of the year came against this weekend's opponent, Minnesota. In a 27-24 loss, Hodgins caught eight of his 12 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown. Minnesota is a bottom-seven defense in passing DVOA and gives up the second-most FPPG to wide receivers. As previously mentioned, this Wild Card matchup has the highest over/under on the slate at 48.5 points, and their first meeting produced 51 points. Grab as many pieces from this game as you can.

Tight Ends

Dawson Knox vs. MIA ($4,000 DK; $5,600 FD)

DAWSON. KNOX.

📺: @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/9r2aS8g7Wa

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 18, 2022

Dawson Knox has compiled 500 yards, 48 catches, and six touchdowns in each of the previous two seasons for the Buffalo Bills. Only Travis Kelce and George Kittle can also say that for their respective teams. And for our DFS purposes, he's continuously underrated and finds himself again in that spot, entering Wild Card Weekend.

The former Ole Miss standout scored a touchdown in four straight contests to end the year and has a history of shining in the postseason spotlight. In his last two Wild Card round appearances, Knox has seven catches for 94 yards and three touchdowns. The Bills utilize him in the red zone, where we get our DFS points at the tight end spot. In addition, the Dolphins allowed the third-most FPPG to tight ends in 2022 and allowed Knox to put up 21.9 DK points on them in Week 15.

Premium Sample Lineups - Wild Card Weekend

DraftKings lineup

FanDuel lineup

Please note that we provide sample lineups as a tool for you to use. They are designed to give you building-block options as you go about choosing your lineups, but in no way can we guarantee success. Be sure to examine the latest injury up; Las, Las Vegas projected game totals, and late scratches before finalizing your lineups to ensure the players you choose are active on game day.

More Weekly DFS Analysis