RADIO
The turkey has been turned to sandwiches, the Black Friday shopping has been done, we all just finished watching one of the most emotional WWE Survivor Series in history (I’m writing this on Wednesday, so I’m just guessing), and now it’s time to get back to our regularly scheduled activity; Sunday NFL Football.
Sunday update: Good guess on the Survivor Series! CM Punk return confirmed!!!
We have been blessed with one of the worst 10-game slates that you’ll ever see, with multiple games boasting totals well below 40 points. There’s not a ton of value to speak of as of this writing, so we are going to have to jump on what we do have and hope some more opens up by Sunday morning. Despite the negatives, there’s still a ton of money to be made and we are going to try to find the players who can get us there.
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!I’m super excited for Week 12, and my goal is to create a hierarchy of plays so you know who to prioritize when building your lineups! Remember that this article is written early in the week, so please make sure to check in with our Discord for any updates as practice reports come in throughout the week and a clearer picture starts to come into view. Also, be sure to check out all of our other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big!
DraftKings NFL DFS Cash Rankings - Quarterbacks
1. Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals - $6900)
It’s an ugly week for quarterbacks, and unless you want to spend all the way up on Josh Allen, you’re going to have to get a little risky at the position. Kyler Murray is literally the cheapest player at quarterback who carries any sort of safety. Look at who is priced cheaper and tell me one guy that’s a “safe” play (spoiler: you can’t do it because that player doesn’t exist).
As far as those risks go, Murray at least has the fantasy cheat code that makes him a viable option. That cheat code, of course, is his ability to get outside the pocket and run with the football. Word was that he’d see a reduced role in the rushing game coming off his injury, but he’s averaging 6.5 attempts, 42 yards, and a touchdown in the two games he’s played this year.
Even if he were to regress in the rushing touchdown category (and he rightfully should), he’s still giving you a seven fantasy point floor simply from his rushing production. Add in his average passing volume, and you have a guy who separates from the other midrange signal-callers in cash games. He’s got a reasonable matchup against the Rams this weekend, and playing at home should help keep the Cardinals close.
Sunday update: As much as I like Murray in this matchup, I'm no longer sure he's the right play for the build I want in my cash lineup. His ownership is going to be relatively low today and people are overlooking his upside, making him a strong GPP play, but spending down to Gardner Minshew may be the right play. There's basically a two-versus-two decision I'm making between Kyler/Christian Kirk or Minshew/Stefon Diggs and right no that Diggs side is looking to be a bit safer. That said, there's nothing inherently wrong with using Kyler Murray in cash; he just doesn't fit my personal build today.
2. Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills - $8100)
3. Gardner Minshew (Indianapolis Colts - $5100)
Others in consideration: C.J. Stroud, Jalen Hurts
DraftKings NFL DFS GPP Rankings - Quarterbacks
1. C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans - $7700)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Houston is playing great football right now, and C.J. Stroud is at the center of it. He’s been a GPP-winning type of play (20 or more DraftKings points) in 60% of his career starts, and his volume has allowed him to carry a couple of pass catchers with him in those games where he goes off. He’s averaging 35.5 attempts and just a shade under 300 yards per game, and those numbers go up to over 36 attempts and 339 yards per game at home. The Jaguars are one of the more generous defenses to opposing quarterbacks, allowing 265 passing yards per game on the road.
The Jags are stout against the run, and Houston wants to throw anyway, so it’s not unreasonable to think that Stroud could get around 40 attempts in this game. If Jacksonville can get some points on the board (and it’s looking like they’re in a good spot to do so), this could develop into a shootout. Houston’s an easy team to stack, as it’s Tank Dell and one of Nico Collins, Noah Brown, or Dalton Schultz (depending on your build), and you can bring it back with a chalky Travis Etienne or one of the Jags' wide receivers. You should keep a relatively tight player pool this weekend given how poor the slate is, and the Texans-Jaguars game should be one of those games on your list.
2. Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars - $6400)
3. Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams - $6300)
Others in consideration: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, Tommy Devito, Gardner Minshew
Sunday update: It's looking like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes may be much lower-owned than I expected when I initially wrote this on Wednesday. I find that I'm getting to a lot of both of those guys in my GPP builds. Allen is easily stackable with two of Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid, and Khalil Shakir, while Mahomes is usable with Travis Kelce and one of Rashee Rice or Justin Watson. I still have more than enough exposure to C.J. Stroud, but after that it's Allen and Mahomes for me ahead of therest of the field as long as their ownership stays low.
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DraftKings NFL DFS Cash Rankings - Running Backs
1. Rachaad White (Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $6100)
This is a terrible week for running backs, so it makes sense to spend down at the positions. Unfortunately, there really aren’t any punt-priced value plays to be had at this point so you’re going to have to live in the midrange. Thankfully, Rachaad White has been a perfect midrange cash game option for five weeks.
He hasn’t scored less than 15.9 DraftKings points in any of those weeks, despite having three games with less than 15 carries. He’s used quite a bit in the passing game, and that’s kept his fantasy point floor at a stable level. He’s also gotten into the end zone in each of the last three weeks, and that touchdown upside has been huge in helping to offset his woes in the rushing game.
The Buccaneers-Colts game has sneaky shootout potential this weekend, and if that’s the case, then expect White to continue to see a high volume of targets in the passing game. Pair him with Bijan Robinson or Travis Etienne (or a value play if one opens up) and you can have a very balanced cash game lineup this weekend.
Sunday Update: I am not worried about Rachaad White's knee issue, as his addition to the injury report was merely precautionary. I'm also finding myself wanting to use Kyren Williams more than any other running back as my second running back option. The Rams not putting Darrell Henderson on the active squad tells me all I need to know about Kyren's expected workload today against a weak Cardinals rushing defense.
2. Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons - $6500)
3. Travis Etienne (Jacksonville Jaguars - $7100)
Others in consideration: Kyren Williams, Jaylen Warren, Jerome Ford
DraftKings NFL DFS GPP Rankings - Running Backs
1. Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans - $6400)
Derrick Henry has yet to have a breakout game this year, but there are some positives that make this a worthwhile play. He’s seeing more work than ever in the passing game, with two or more targets in 70% of his games this year. He’s also scored 19 or more DraftKings points in four of his last seven starts, so it’s not like he’s killing your lineups every single week.
This game is in Tennessee, and Henry is averaging 12.3 more fantasy points in home games (21.1) than on the road (8.8). Carolina is an awful defense against the run, giving up over 100 yards in all but one game this season.
If there was ever a “get right” spot for Henry, it’d be this week. He’s as cheap as he’s ever been, and there’s a natural bring-back play in Adam Thielen on the other side. The price may make Henry more popular than a typical tournament option, but not every GPP play has to be sub-10%. Get guys in good spots and find ownership value elsewhere (maybe use him with a Tampa-Indy game stack).
2. Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers - $5400)
3. Saquon Barkley (New York Giants - $7300)
Others in consideration: Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Rachaad White, D’Andre Swift, Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson
DraftKings NFL DFS Cash Rankings - Wide Receivers
1. Adam Thielen (Carolina Panthers - $7300)
Adam Thielen is more than a bring-back play in Derrick Henry mini-stacks, he’s a top cash game option on his own. Despite the Panthers being horrible on offense, Thielen has continued to see the kind of volume we dream about for cash-game wide receivers. He’s had 10 or more targets in five of his last six games, and he averages 7.6 receptions per game on the season.
Tennessee is a pass-funnel defense, meaning we can want to target wide receivers who face them. The Titans have also allowed 20 or more real-life points in all but two games, so there is some touchdown upside with a play against them in the passing game. Thielen has been far better on the road this year (22 DraftKings points per game) than at home (14.8 DraftKings points per game) on a similar volume and it’s likely that the Panthers will be playing from behind in this game as well.
2. Tank Dell (Houston Texans - $6900)
3. Demario Douglas (New England Patriots - $4400)
Others in consideration: Greg Dortch, Trenton Irwin, Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman Jr., Chris Olave, Khalil Shakir
Sunday update: If I had the time to rewrite this entire section I'd move Stefon Diggs up to the top spot. He's got a great matchup against an Eagles secondary that has been very generous to opposing wide receivers. His target volume is massive, and he's expected to have a high ownership. Thielen is in play, but I'd probably move Tank Dell above him as well at this point. There are more than enough value options for cash at wide receiver now with Trenton Irwin and Greg Dortch locked into a high volume of snaps. Using them allows me to pay up elsewhere without sacrificing much in terms of projected target share.
DraftKings NFL DFS GPP Rankings - Wide Receivers
1. Tank Dell (Houston Texans - $6900)
If we are going to roll with C.J. Stroud as our top GPP quarterback, it would be smart to use his top pass-catching option as well. Tank Dell has been the best rookie wide receiver in the NFL this year (sorry, Jordan Addison) and it really hasn’t been close. Over his last three games, he’s seen 35 targets, has scored four touchdowns, and is averaging over 27 DraftKings points per game.
His game against the Jaguars this weekend could be a shootout, as many of the Texans games have been lately. He’s a better player at home, scoring almost nine more fantasy points per game on a similar volume. His upside is as high as any receiver on the slate, and he’s still priced below his production level even at $6900.
2. Calvin Ridley (Jacksonville Jaguars - $6000)
3. Stefon Diggs (Buffalo Bills - $8800)
Others in consideration: Justin Watson, A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman Jr., Rashid Shaheed, Nico Collins, Mike Evans, Rashee Rice, Khalil Shakir, A.T. Perry
DraftKings NFL DFS Rankings - Tight Ends
1. David Njoku (Cleveland Browns - $4100)
A young quarterback’s best friend is a big-bodied tight end. David Njoku was Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s best friend last weekend, as he was targeted a whopping 15 times. That was his fifth straight game of more than six targets and double-digit fantasy points, averaging over five receptions and over 12 DraftKings points during that stretch.
He’s facing the Denver Broncos this weekend, and they’ve been the most generous team to opposing tight ends all year. That he’s priced at just $4100 is outrageous, and it’s a misprice that I’m going to jump all over in all game formats.
2. Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals - $4700)
3. Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills - $5300)
Others in consideration: Travis Kelce, Tyler Higbee, Cade Otton, Taysom Hill
DraftKings NFL DFS Rankings - D/ST
1. Kansas City Chiefs- $3100
Speaking of mispricing, this is an abomination. How in the world are the Chiefs only $3100 against a rookie quarterback who hasn’t looked very good this year? Is it because they are on the road? I truly don’t understand this pricing, but I’m surely going to take advantage of it, especially on a week when the cheapest defensive unit is only $500 cheaper.
Kansas City has recorded three or more sacks in five straight games and in eight of 10 games overall this year. They have forced at least one turnover in every game this season, and have scored double-digit fantasy points in four of their last five games. It’s not crazy to say that the Chiefs defense is a top-five value among all positions on this slate.
2. Houston Texans - $2600
3. Philadelphia Eagles - $2900
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