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Welcome to Week 8 of the NFL Season! The season is moving right along and has gotten very exciting and that means our friends at Monkey Knife Fight are offering some fantastic props for us to play.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of in a couple of these games including the Raiders at Browns, Titans at Bengals, and 49ers at Seahawks.
Raiders @ Browns More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Derek Carr more than 250.5 passing yards and Baker Mayfield more than 237.5 passing yards
This game has the potential to be a shootout as both defenses have struggled quite a bit against the pass this season and the game total currently sits at 50.5. First, let's talk about Derek Carr as he is currently averaging 288 passing yards per game this season and has averaged 314 passing yards per game over his previous three games. The Browns have been awful vs. the pass in 2020, which should help Carr's cause here. Over the previous four weeks, the Browns are allowing quarterbacks to throw for nearly 330 yards per game. The Browns have also been better against running backs of late as they are only allowing them to rush for 74 yards per game, which means Josh Jacobs could find it tough sledding and would mean more passing for Carr in this game.
The Raiders have also struggled against the pass as they have allowed quarterbacks to throw for an average of 332 yards per game over the previous four weeks. While Mayfield has not thrown for a ton of yards this season, he did manage to throw for 297 and five scores last week when the Bengals put the heat on the Browns' offense by keeping the game close throughout and taking the lead late. Given the high total in this game and the fact that the Raiders are only 2.5 point underdogs, I expect the same type of game flow to occur and expect Mayfield to be forced to throw a bit more than usual and get over the hump in this game.
Note: Keep an eye on the weather in this game as there are projected to be high winds. If the 25mph sustained winds are still in play come kickoff, I would still look to go over on Carr in this scenario as Darren Waller could be a huge factor along with Hunter Renfrow underneath, but I would lean on the under for Baker as he can certainly rely on the run game with Kareem Hunt against a Raiders Defense that has been awful vs. running backs.
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Titans @ Bengals Fantasy Challenge
Recommended Prop Pick:
Derrick Henry, Jonnu Smith, and Tyler Boyd more than 60.5 fantasy points
This game should be a lot of fun from a fantasy standpoint as the total currently sits at 52. Both of these defenses have struggled quite a bit overall, which means there are a number of places we can look for this fantasy challenge. The most obvious place to look is at Tennesee's workhorse running back, Derrick Henry. Henry is the staple of this pick because he receives so much volume. He is currently averaging nearly 25 touches per game, which is absolutely ridiculous. Of these touches, nearly 24 per game are rushing attempts. This is where he should shine vs. a Bengals Defense that has allowed an average of 4.83 yards per carry to backs over the previous four weeks. Henry should be able to run all over this defense and is definitely a candidate to put the ball in the end zone on at least one occasion.
Jonnu Smith may seem like a weird candidate here given the dud he put up a week ago, and I could understand if you would rather use someone like A.J. Brown, but just hear me out on Jonnu first. Prior to his injury in Week 6 and dud performance last week vs. a strong Steelers Defense, Jonnu was averaging nearly seven targets per game. Now, some will say that Brown was not around for those games, but Brown was there Week 1 at Denver when Jonnu had seven targets and hauled in four for 36 yards and a score. The Bengals have been absolutely awful vs. the tight end position as well. They have allowed an average of 22.5 fantasy points per game to the tight end over the previous four weeks, which is ranked dead-last in the league. They have also given up six touchdowns to tight ends in the previous four weeks, which is also ranked last in the league. Jonnu should be able to have a rebound game here and put up a solid fantasy performance.
Tyler Boyd has become one of Joe Burrow's favorite targets. He has earned an average of nearly nine targets per game in 2020 and was targeted a whopping 13 times last week vs. the Browns. He will be facing a Titans Defense that has not been good vs. wide receivers lately. Over the previous four weeks, the Titans have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers by allowing nearly 54 points per game. The Bengals are also six-point underdogs in this game, so it is very possible that they will be forced to throw quite a bit to keep up, which also helps Boyd's case in this prop.
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49ers @ Seahawks More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Russell Wilson more than 301.5 passing yards and Jimmy Garoppolo more than 265.5 passing yards
Another Seattle game and some more overs this week as the 49ers travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks in a game that has a total of 54, which is currently the highest total on the board. Wilson has been almost automatic for 300-yard games this season as he has thrown for over 300 yards in four of six games and also has a 288-yard performance mixed in. He will be facing a 49ers Defense that appears strong vs. the pass as they have only allowed an average of 226 passing yards per game over the previous four weeks, but they have yet to face an offense like this or an offense that throws as often as the Seahawks do. Seattle currently ranks second in the league with 296 passing yards per game. The best passing team the 49ers have faced in 2020 are the Arizona Cardinals who average 258 passing yards per game, which is a drastic difference from this Seahawks team. Seattle could also be without their top-two running backs in Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde or at least have them at a limited capacity, which would also mean more passing for this Seahawks team.
Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off a 277-yard passing performance on the road at the Patriots in Week 7 and gets the best matchup of his season this week against Seattle. The Seahawks have struggled mightily against the pass this season. Over the previous four weeks, they are allowing 308 passing yards per game and have also given up the second-most passing yards to quarterbacks on the season by allowing 2,243 passing yards. The Seahawks are good vs. the run, however, as they have only allowed running backs to rush for an average of 78 yards per game. This means the 49ers will likely have a tough time moving the ball on the ground and be forced to move it through the air. The fact that they are also three-point underdogs could help their odds of passing the ball more frequently in order to keep up with the high-octane Seattle offense.
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