RADIO
Heading into the stretch run of the NFL season, games take on more importance. Teams are jockeying for playoff position and the teams that are on the outside looking in are running out of time to make up ground.
There are a bunch of games this week that involve contenders and pretenders but there are still some exciting head-to-head matchups between teams in the playoff mix, including the Seattle Seahawks at the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys at the New England Patriots and, in the Sunday nighter, the Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers.
The question when making prop picks is which games might offer better potential value? Is it the lopsided affairs, some with double-digit point spreads, or is it the fiercely competitive matchups that might swing on a field goal one way or the other?
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
Matt Ryan OVER 309.5 PASSING YARDS – This is a tall order, expecting at least 310 passing yards. Ryan is averaging 295.9 passing yards per game and has thrown for at least 310 yards five times in nine games but the biggest draw is that he’s going up against a Buccaneers team that is allowing 290.9 passing yards per game, the second-highest average in the league. With question marks in the Atlanta running game, that’s all the more reason to believe that Ryan can hit the over.
Jameis Winston OVER 305.5 PASSING YARDS – An equal opportunity quarterback who creates chances for both teams, Winston has thrown at least 40 passes and for 300-plus yards in five straight games. Atlanta ranks 27th with 261.7 passing yards allowed per game, which is bad enough to believe that this game can be a high-scoring affair in which the Bucs and Falcons trade opportunities moving up and down the field.
Drew Brees UNDER 285.5 PASSING YARDS – There is always the risk that the Saints could be winning so comfortably that they do not need to pass, as was the case last week, but it was the first time in four complete games this season that Brees was held under 285 passing yards. Trouble is, this week the Saints face a Panthers Defense that is above average in terms of pass defense (233.6 passing yards per game, 7.1 yards per attempt) so a second straight week on the under seems reasonable.
Russell Wilson UNDER 269.5 PASSING YARDS – Of course Wilson has the potential to blow past this number but he’s thrown for 270 or more yards four times this season. The Eagles Defense is right around the middle of the pack in terms of pass defense, allowing 237.5 passing yards per game and 7.1 passing yards per attempt, so the under makes sense this week.
Derek Carr OVER 260.5 PASSING YARDS – As the Raiders offense has evolved this season, Carr has passed for at least 285 yards in four of the past five games. The Jets have a formidable run defense but are a little more susceptible to the passing attack so look for Carr to continue his upwardly productive trend.
Baker Mayfield UNDER 260.5 PASSING YARDS – Although the Dolphins are not particularly strong against the pass, allowing 8.1 yards per passing attempt, they are losing enough that teams only throw 31.5 passes per game against them. In the past six games, Mayfield has thrown for more than 260 yards just once and that was in a loss at Denver in which Mayfield threw 42 passes. So long as the Browns get into the lead they shouldn’t need to throw enough for Mayfield to hit the over.
RAPID FIRE
Michael Thomas -4.5 receiving yards vs. Julio Jones – Thomas’ consistency has just been relentless. He’s been held under 89 receiving yards in one game all season and has gone for more than 110 yards in four straight games. Jones obviously has the talent to put up numbers and has the benefit of playing against Tampa Bay this week but it’s hard to go against Thomas.
Allen Robinson +0.5 receptions vs. Mike Evans – There is an up and down nature to Evans’ usage, and he’s been held to four catches or fewer six times this season, and while it’s just about impossible to trust the Bears’ quarterback situation, Robinson has been mostly reliable, recording at least five catches in seven of 10 games.
Nick Chubb -17.5 rushing yards vs. Christian McCaffrey – It might seem counter-intuitive to pick against McCaffrey, who is averaging a league-leading 105.9 rushing yards per game, but Chubb isn’t far behind at 101.1 rushing yards per game and the opposition this week really makes the difference. Chubb goes against a Miami Dolphins team that has allowed 148.3 rushing yards per game, the second highest rate in the league, whereas McCaffrey faces a New Orleans team that is allowing 85.3 rushing yards per game, third best in the league.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Tom Brady UNDER 275.5 PASSING YARDS – Facing a Cowboys pass defense that is relatively strong (216.9 passing yards per game, 6.8 yards per attempt) with a dinged-up receiving corps is not ideal for a big Brady passing day. Phillip Dorsett and Mohamed Sanu were hurt last week and if they aren’t healthy that will leave Brady with precious few options in the passing game.
Nick Foles OVER 256.5 PASSING YARDS – Foles returned to the Jaguars lineup and threw for 296 yards last week. This week, he goes up against a Titans team giving up 256 passing yards per game, ranking 22nd in the league. That seems favorable enough for Foles to keep it rolling for another week.
Julian Edelman OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS – With injuries hitting the Patriots receiving corps, Edelman should see a lot of targets and he’s already had double-digit targets in five straight games. Last week was the only time in the past six games that Edelman failed to record at least seven catches.
Derrick Henry OVER 84.5 RUSHING YARDS – Week 10 brought a classic monster game from Henry, as he rumbled for 188 yards against Kansas City, but he’s run for 85 yards or more just four times this season. However, the Jaguars are susceptible against the run, allowing a league-worst 5.3 yards per carry so this might be another big game for the Titans running back.
Amari Cooper UNDER 70.5 RECEIVING YARDS – Week to week consistency is not exactly the hallmark of Cooper’s performance and yet he’s averaging 88.6 receiving yards per game. The Cowboys will likely need to throw a bit to keep pace with the Patriots and Cooper remains their most reliable target but New England doesn’t surrender passing yards easily.
RAPID FIRE
Julian Edelman -0.5 receiving yards vs. Amari Cooper – Edelman is the more consistent performer and the Patriots are more likely to lean on him. The fact that the Patriots are allowing just 152.6 passing yards per game is another reason to like Edelman in this head-to-head matchup.
Ezekiel Elliott +4.5 rushing yards vs. Derrick Henry – Elliott has had a tough couple of weeks, rushing for 92 yards on 36 carries in the past two games, but he does have five 100-yard rushing games this season and that makes him a rather lively underdog against Henry.
