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Welcome to Week 10 of the NFL Season! The season is moving right along and has gotten very exciting and that means our friends at Monkey Knife Fight are offering some fantastic props for us to play.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of in a few of these games including the Lions at Panthers, Patriots at Texans, and Packers at Colts
Lions @ Panthers More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Matthew Stafford more than 275.5 passing yards and Teddy Bridgewater more than 256.5 passing yards
This game pits two bad pass defenses against each other and two quarterbacks that are certainly capable of going over these totals. Stafford will be going up against a Panthers Defense that is allowing 312 passing yards per game over the previous four weeks, which ranks third-worst in the league over that span. Stafford has also been slinging the rock quite a bit lately as he has gone over this total in three of his previous four games and has also been without star wide receiver Kenny Golladay for the past two and a half games. If Golladay is able to suit up in this contest, I like Stafford's chances of going over the total even more.
Teddy Bridgewater has practiced in a limited capacity as of this writing, so I am going to assume he plays this week, but he certainly must be monitored leading up to kickoff to ensure he is playing. If he plays, I like him to go over the total here vs. a bad Lions pass defense. The Lions have allowed an average of 289 passing yards per game over the previous four weeks, which is ranked seventh-worst in the league. It feels like the tempo should be high in this game with both defenses struggling and each team should have to keep up with the other. It should be noted that Bridgewater has gone over this total in half of the Panther's games as well this season.
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Patriots @ Texans Rush Hour Contest
Damien Harris and Duke Johnson more than 145.5 rushing yards
We rarely get a matchup of such poor run defenses, which is why I have not done any Rush Hour contests thus far in 2020, but we have exactly that in this matchup with the Patriots and Texans. The Patriots are allowing running backs to rush for over 119 yards per game over the previous four weeks, which ranks fifth-worst in the league over that span. They are also allowing backs to rush for nearly five yards per carry. Duke Johnson is now the lead back in Houston and while he may not have that name recognition of a stud running back, he was the only back to register a carry last week with David Johnson being placed on IR. He should carry the load once again this week and is certainly capable of adding to the total of Harris, who is the focal point of this prop.
Harris has carried the ball 52 times over the previous three games and has gone over 100 rushing yards in two of the previous three contests. He is averaging 5.7 yards per carry over this span and gets the best matchup of any running back this week vs. Houston. The Texans are allowing backs to rush for over 140 yards per game over the previous four weeks, which currently ranks dead-last in the league. They are also giving up 4.8 yards per carry to backs. This is a great spot for Harris who is coming off a 22 carry and 121-yard rushing night against the Ravens a week ago.
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Packers @ Colts More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Philip Rivers less than 279.5 passing yards and Aaron Rodgers more than 279.5 passing yards
This should be a great game in Indianapolis on Sunday. While both teams boast formidable pass defenses, they also boast terrific offenses and Vegas seems to agree as the total in this one has opened up at 51.5 and held steady.
The Packers have been much stronger vs. the pass than the run lately and that is a key reason I like Rivers to throw for less than the total here. The Packers are allowing running backs to rush for an average of nearly 95 yards per game over the previous four weeks, but are only allowing quarterbacks to throw for 218 yards per game. The Colts would be wise to use Jonathan Taylor more frequently in this game, but even if they don't, Nyheim Hines showed he was capable of running between the tackles last week at Tennessee as he carried the ball 12 times for 70 yards and had more than one 10-plus yard run. Rivers has also only thrown over this total three times in 2020 and all of these came against lesser pass defenses than that of the Packers.
While the Packers have shown they have a strong pass defense, the Colts are even stronger as they are only allowing quarterbacks to throw for an average of 197 passing yards per game over the previous four weeks. That being said, I am not going to go against Aaron Rodgers in this spot after watching him throw for 325 passing yards in troublesome passing conditions last week vs. the Jaguars. Rodgers has thrown for at least 280 passing yards seven times in nine games this season. He has also gone over 280 passing yards in four straight games. It should also be noted that the Colts are only allowing 69 rushing yards per game and only 3.3 yards per carry to running backs over the previous four weeks. This tells me it could be quite difficult for Aaron Jones to get things going (although Derrick Henry looked quite beastly last week, he is a completely different animal), which would also lead to more passing volume for Rodgers.
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